AceTraderFx: Daily Market Outllook on Major -EUR/USD

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AceTraderFx Mar 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Mar 2018 06:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2381
Although yesterday's initial gain to 1.2413 suggests euro's correction from last Thursday's 2-1/2 week peak at 1.2446 has ended earlier at 1.2273 (Friday), subsequent retreat to 1.2347 in New York would bring sideways trading before prospect of another rise, above 1.2413 would encourage for gain towards 1.2446.

On the downside, only below 1.2347 dampens bullish bias and may risk stronger retracement to 1.2315 but reckon 1.2291 should contain weakness.

Data to be released on Thursday:
France CPI, Swiss producer import price, SNB interest rate decision, and U.S. initial jobless claims, New York Fed manufacturing index, import price, export price, Philadelphia Fed survey, NAHB housing market index

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AceTraderFx Mar 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Mar 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2307
Yesterday's fall from 1.2384 (Asia) to as low as 1.2300, then 1.2295 in Asia today suggests erratic rise from last week's trough at 1.2273 has ended at 1.2413 (Wednesday) and choppy trading with downside bias remains for re-test of this level, break would extend early decline from March's 1.2446 peak towards 1.2222.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.2347 'prolongs' recent choppy broad sideways swings and risks another rise towards 1.2384.

Euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with Germany's WPI, then Italy's CPI n EU's final HICP n core HICP.

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AceTraderFx Mar 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Mar 2018 06:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2281
Despite euro's weakness to a 2-week trough of 1.2260 on Friday, subsequent short-covering rebound would bring consolidation before recent 3-legged fall from March's 1.2446 peak heads to 1.2240/50, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.2220/25.

Only a daily close above 1.2300 signals temporary low is made and risks stronger retracement to 1.2336 but reckon 1.2384 res should cap upside.

We have a 2-day G20 meeting of FinMins n Central Bank Governors in Buenos Aires, Argentina, so keep a eye out on comments esp by the G7 officials. IN addition, we have several ECB members speaking during European time (see details from EI page).

On the data side, Germany will release Buba monthly report, Italy will release industrial output n trade balance, then followed by the same from the EU as well as construction output.

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AceTraderFx Mar 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Mar 2018 06:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2344
Euro's impressive rally from Mon's 2-week trough of 1.2258 (Europe) to as high as 1.2359 after report of ECB rate-hike talk suggests early erratic fall from Mar's high at 1.2446 has ended and upside bias is seen for further gain, however, as broad outlook remains consolidative ahead of FOMC announcement tomorrow, reckon 1.2413 would cap present rise.

Only a daily close below 1.2300 would shift risk to downside for another prove at 1.2258/60 sup.

Euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with Germany's PPI, Germany's ZEW eco. sentiment n current conditions, then EU will release ZEW eco. sentiment. Later in NY morning, EU will release consumer confidence.


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AceTraderFx Mar 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Mar 2018 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2255
Euro's intra-day selloff from 1.2355 and then break of Monday's 2-week low of 1.2258 to 1.2240 near New York close due to renewed USD's strength on market expectation of a Fed rate hike and hawkish dot plot later today suggests erratic fall from March's 1.2446 peak would pressure price towards 1.2206, reckon key sup at 1.2155 would contain weakness.

On the upside, above 1.2300 would be the 1st signal low is made and yield subsequent gain towards 1.2359.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Japan market holiday.
UK claimant count, PSNB, ILO unemployment rate, average weekly earnings.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, CBI industrial trends survey, current account, existing home sales, Fed interest rate decision, Fed Monetary Policy Statement, Fed Economic Projections.

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AceTraderFx Mar 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Mar 2018 06:00 GMT


EUR/USD - 1.2362
Euro's intra-day rally from 1.2252 in post-FOMC New York and then subsequent jump to 1.2350 on dovish comments by Fed chairman J. Powell suggests recent erratic fall from March's 1.2446 peak has ended at 1.2240 on Tuesday and upside bias remains for gain towards 1.2413 after consolidation, overbought condition would cap price below said key res level.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.2296 'prolongs' recent choppy wild swings and may risk another fall back towards 1.2255/60.

Pay attention to release of a slew of EU data esp. the key German Ifo data. France will kick off 1st with bus climate n final Q4 GDP, then EU's current account, France's Markit mfg n services PMIs, the same from Germany n then Ifo dta n later EU's Markit mfg n services PMIs, the EU eco. bulletin. We also have ECB members n EU President speaking during the day (see EI page for details).

 

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AceTraderFx Mar 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Mar 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2335
Although yesterday's stronger-than-expected decline from 1.2389 to as low as 1.2286 (NY) signals early upmove from Tuesday's fresh 2-week bottom at 1.2240 has made a top, intra-day selloff in dlr/yen is likely to pressure usd broadly and consolidation with upside bias remains, above 1.2359 would encourage for subsequent re-test of 1.2389.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.2286 prolongs recent volatile sideways swings below March's 1.2446 peak and may risk weakness towards 1.2240 next week.

No important euro area eco. data is due out today but we have EC meeting where EU's Barnier will speak of Brexit transition, EU President Juncker and EC's Tusk will have hold a press conference at 12:00GMT, so stay tune.

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AceTraderFx Mar 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Mar 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2356
Euro's erratic rise to 1.2373 on Friday suggests pullback from last week's high at 1.2389 (Thursday) has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 1.2400, only a daily close above 1.2413 would retain bullishness for subsequent headway towards March's peak at 1.2446.

On the downside, only below 1.2286 'prolongs' recent choppy sideways swings and may risk weakness to 1.2240/50.

Europe has moved its clock forward by one hour and Germany will kick off with import price and then Italy's trade balance Buba President and ECB board member wil speak at 09:30GMT and then he and ECB's Nowotny will be sat 10:30GMT.
Then at 13:00GMT, ECB's Nouy will speak at European Parliament's Eco. and Monetary Affairs Committee.

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AceTraderFx Apr 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Apr 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2302
Yesterday's 1-tick weakness below last week's low at 1.2284 suggests recent decline from March's 5-week peak at 1.2477 would resume after consolidation, loss of downward momentum is expected to keep price above daily sup at 1.2240 and bring correction later today or tomorrow.

On the upside, a daily close above Monday's New York high at 1.2344 would be the 1st signal low is in place and risk stronger retracement to 1.2373/77, then later 1.2400/03.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with Germany's retail sales, Italy's Markit mfg PMI, then the same France, Germany n the EU. ECB's Board member Mersch will speak in Madrid at 14:30GMT.

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AceTraderFx Apr 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Apr 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2253
Although euro has rebounded in Australia on selloff in dlr/yen following Trump's comments of imposing extra tariffs on China after yesterday's decline to a 1-month trough at 1.2218, as long as res area at 1.2283/90 holds, marginal weakness is likely, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.2175/80.

A daily close above 1.2290 signals low is in place, then outlook would turn bullish for stronger retracement to 1.2315, then 1.2344.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with Germany's industrial output, France's trade balance. ECB Board member Coeure will at a conference in Italy at 06:45GMT.

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