AceTraderFx: Daily Market Outllook on Major -EUR/USD

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AceTraderFx Dec 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Dec 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1444
Although yesterday's rally from 1.1365 to 1.1455 in New York suggests early retreat from last Thursday's 5-week high at 1.1486 has ended at 1.1344 (Wednesday), broad outlook remains consolidative and near term o/bot condition should cap price below said res level and yield retreat later today.

On the downside, below 1.1400 would be the 1st signal intra-day top is in place and yields weakness towards 1.1365 but reckon 1.1344 sup should remain intact.

Euro area countries will release a slew of eco. dats starting with Germany's import price index, then Italy's unemployment n Germany's CPI n HICP.

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AceTraderFx Dec 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 Dec 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1444
Euro's erratic rise from last week's low at 1.1344 (Wednesday) to 1.1476 on Fri suggests correction from Dec's 5-week high at 1.1486 has ended and subsequent retreat in New York session and closure of Japan's market, then many European centres for New Year's Eve holiday today would bring subdued trading.

As long as 1.1400/10 holds, upside bias remains for re-test of 1.486 where a break there would extend upmove from 2018 bottom at 1.1216 (November) towards 1.1550 'later' this week.
Only below 1.1400 prolongs volatile sideways swings and risks stronger pullback to 1.1365 but 1.1344 should remain intact.

The only eco. data due out later today in the U.S. is Dallas Fed mfg business index for Dec. Happy New Year !

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AceTraderFx Jan 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Jan 2019 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1453
Although Monday's gain to 1.1479 in holiday-thinned NY trading indicates early correction from December's 5-week high at 1.1486 has ended last week at 1.1344, intra-day retreat in Asia suggests range trading is in store and as long as 1.1422 sup holds, re-test of 1.1486, then 1.1500 is envisaged, however, loss of upward momentum should cap euro at 1.1520/25.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.1422 would 'prolong' recent sideways swings, then risk is seen for stronger retracement to 1.1365 but sup at 1.1344 should hold from here.

European markets will re-open today n Wed is PMI day in the euro area countries. Italy will kick off with Markit Dec mfg OMI, followed by the same from France, Germany and then the EU.

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AceTraderFx Jan 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1408
Despite yesterday's initial weakness to 1.1310 ahead of Asian open, subsequent rebound to 1.1411 in New York due to usd's broad-based weakness on renewed decline in U.S. stocks and treasury yields suggests decline from Wednesday's 7-week high at 1.1497 has made a low and choppy sideways swings are in store ahead of release of key U.S. jobs data later.

As long as 1.1440/50 holds, another fall is likely, below 1.1338 would bring test of 1.1306/10 sup but break there needed to retain bearishness for weakness towards 1.1267 next week.
Above 1.1450 would risk gain towards 1.1497/00, break would extend upmove from 1.1216 (November) towards 1.1550.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with France's CPI, Itaky's Markit services PMI, then the same from Germany, unemployment, Italy's CPI, EU's CPI, PPI and Markit services PMI.

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AceTraderFx Jan 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1469
Euro's intra-day rally above last Friday's 1.1420 high to 1.1484 in New York on Monday due to broad-based usd's weakness (except vs yen) signals correction from last Wed's 7-week peak at 1.1497 has ended and re-test of this res is seen after consolidaion, above 1.1500 would encourage for recent erratic rise to head towards next chart obj. at 1.1500.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1420 would 'prolong' recent daily choppy swings and risk weakness to 1.1293, then possibly towards 1.1346.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco data starting with Germany's industrial output, France's current account, trade balance, import n export price, then we have EU's business climate, eco., industrial n services sentiment index n consumer confidence index.

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AceTraderFx Jan 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Jan 2019 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1456
Although yesterday's erratic fall from 1.1485 (Asia) to 1.1422 in New York suggests further choppy trading below last Wednesday's 7-week peak at 1.1497 would continue, subsequent rebound would bring range trading.

Below 1.1422 would yield stronger retracement of last week's rise from 1.1310 towards 1.1346 whilst above 1.1468 (European top) would risk gain back towards 1.1485 but only break of 1.1497/00 res would extend Medium Term upmove towards 1.1550 'later' this week.

On the eco. data front, Germany will kick off with imports n exports, trade balance n current account, the France's consumer confidence, Italy's unemployment, then the same from the EU.

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AceTraderFx Jan 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1555
Yesterday's rally above indicated res at 1.1497/1.1500 to a 2-1/2 month high of 1.1554 in New York confirms recent erratic rise from 2018 bottom at 1.1216 (November) has once again resumed and price is en route towards next daily obj. at 1.1621 after consolidation, overbought condition should cap price at 1.1640/50.

Only a daily close below 1.1500 signals temporary top is made and may risk stronger retracement towards 1.1440.


On the eco. data front, France will release industrial production, then Italy's retail sales. Pay attention to release of last ECB Monetary Policy statement at 12:30GMT.

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AceTraderFx Jan 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1519
Despite yesterday's initial marginal gain above previous high to an 11-week peak of 1.1570 in Asia, subsequent stronger-than-expected decline due to broad-based profit taking in euro to a low as 1.1485 in New York afternoon following mildly hawkish comments by Fed's J. Powell suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top and intra-day rebound would yield range trading.

Below 1.1485 would bring stronger retracement of recent rise from 1.1216 (November) towards 1.1440 whilst above 1.1545 may bring re-test of 1.1570 but break there needed to revive bullishness for resumption of upmove towards 1.1621 next week.

Data to be released on Friday :
Australia AIG construction index, retail sales, New Zealand building permits, Japan household spending, current account, trade balance, Eco. Watchers outlook, Eco. Watchers current.
Italy industrial output, UK GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, goods trade balance, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate, EU ZEW economic sentiment.
U.S. CPI, real weekly earnings, trade balance, Federal budget.

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AceTraderFx Jan 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1468
Fri's selloff from 1.1540 (Europe) and then break of 1.1485 sup to .1458 in New York morning due to renewed usd's strength confirms recent upmove from 2018 bottom at 1.1216 (November) has made a temporary top at Thursday's 11-week high at 1.1570 and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement towards 1.1393 before prospect of rebound.

Intra-day recovery from 1.1440 (New Zealand) would bring range trading in Asia and European morning before down and only above 1.1540 signals correction has ended.

Eco. calendar in the euro area countries is very light with EU's industrail production being the only data due out at 10:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Jan 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1475
Euro's initial weakness to 1.1440 (NZ) on Monday signals recent erratic rise from 2018 16-month bottom at 1.1216 (November) has made a temporary top at last Thursday's 11-week peak at 1.1570 and as long as 1.1500 holds, stronger retracement to 1.1422 is envisaged after consolidation, loss of momentum would keep price above 1.1393 sup.

A daily close above 1.1500 would be the 1st signal said pullback has ended, then risk is seen for further gain to 1.1540/45.

Euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data (please refer to EI section for details) but market's focus is ECB President Draghi's participation in meeting of the plenary of the European Parliament to mark the 20th anniversary of the euro in Strasbourg at 10:30GMT, then later at 15:00GMT, Draghi will address the EU Parliament, therefore, expect the euro to swing on his comments.

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