AceTraderFx: Daily Market Outllook on Major -EUR/USD

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AceTraderFx May 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 May 2019 06:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1206
Despite euro's resumption of upmove from last Friday's 22-month bottom at 1.1112 to a 12-day high at 1.1265 after Fed's unchanged rate decision, intra-day selloff to 1.0189 due to usd's broad-based rally following Fed J. Powell's less dovish comments signals 1st leg of correction is over and choppy consolidation with downside bias is seen ahead of Friday's key U.S. jobs report.

As long as 1.1230 holds, stronger retracement to 1.1141/46 is likely before rebound.
Only a daily close above 1.1230 risks re-test of 1.1265 but loss of momentum should cap euro well below 1.1300.
On the data front, Germany will kick off with retail sales, Italy's Markit mfg PMI, then the same data from France, Germany and the EU. French and German FinMins will address a press conference in Paris at 09:30GMT, then later ECB board member Jens Weidmann and ECB executive board member and chief economist Peter Praet will speak at 17:30GMT.

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AceTraderFx May 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 May 2019 05:20 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1177
Euro's decline from post-FOMC high at 1.1265 (Wed) to 1.1171 yesterday suggests early correction from last Friday's 22-month bottom at 1.1112 has possibly ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.1141/46 sup, break there would yield re-test of 1.1112 (upbeat U.S. NFP perhaps), then towards 1.1054 later next week.

On the upside, only above 1.1230 'prolongs' choppy sideways swings and risks gain towards 1.1265 (U.S. NFP miss ?), break would head to 1.1300/05.

Ahead of U.S. jobs data, the EU will release s slew of inflation data (see EI section for details). Also we have ECB Governing Council member and Buba chief Jens Weidmann speaking at 08:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx May 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 May 2019 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1192
Despite Friday's brief drop to 1.1135 after release of robust U.S. NFP, intra-day rally to 1.1206 due to broad-based usd's weakness as market focused on soft U.S. wage growth suggests choppy trading above April's 22-month bottom at 1.1112 would continue with upside bias.

Above 1.1206 would encourage for gain towards 1.1230, however, reckon res at 1.1265 should hold and only below 1.1135 risks re-test of 1.1112.

Today is PMI day in the euro area countries. Italy will kick off with Markit services PMI, then followed by the same from France, Germany n EU. The EU will also release Sentix investor confidence index and retail sales. ECB board member Lautenschager will speak at an ECB conference in FFT at 07:30GMT and ECB Chief Economist will have a converstion/interview with Financial Times in FFT at 15:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx May 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 May 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1200
Despite Mon's initial gap-down to 1.1161, subsequent erratic rise above Fri's post-NFP high at 1.1206 to 1.1209 has retained near term bullishness for upmove from 1.1135 to head to 1.1230/40, however, reckon previous res at 1.1265 should cap upside and yield retreat later.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.1161 would risk re-test of 1.1135 but 2019 bottom at 1.1112 (Apr) should remain intact.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia AIG construction index, retail sales, retail trade, trade balance, imports, exports, RBA interest rate decision, New Zealand GDT price index, Japan Nikkei manufacturing PMI.
Germany factory orders, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, UK Halifax house price.
U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings, and Canada Ivey PMI.

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AceTraderFx May 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 May 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1195
Although euro's rally from 1.1135 (Fri) to as high as 1.1218 yesterday suggests further choppy trading above 2019 22-month bottom at 1.1112 (Apr) would continue, subsequent retreat to 1.1167 in New York would bring broad sideways swings before prospect of another rise, reckon 1.1265 (last week's high) should cap upside.

On the downside, only below 1.1135 would risk re-test of said key 1.1212 sup, then later towards 1.1054 next week.

Eco. calendar in the euro area countries is pretty thin with Germn industrial output being the only data due out. ECB's Draghi wil have dialogue with a group of youth at a student award event in FFT, so one can expect him to speak on something totally unrelated to ECB's monetary policy right.

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AceTraderFx May 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 May 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1194
Although euro's daily sideways swings following early rally from 1.1135 (Friday) to 1.1218 (Tuesday) are likely to would continue, as long as sup area at 1.1161/67 holds, upside bias remains for aforesaid rise to yield marginal gain, reckon res at 1.1265 (Last week's high) should cap subsequent rise and yield decline.

A daily close below 1.1161 signals rebound is over, then risk would shift to the downside for re-test of 1.1135.

No eco. data is due out from euro area countries but we have ECB Board member Nowotny n Lane speaking at a conference in Vienna at 07:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx May 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 May 2019 06:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1200
Despite Monday's initial gap-down to 1.1161, subsequent erratic rise above Fri's post-NFP high at 1.1206 to 1.1209 has retained near term bullishness for upmove from 1.1135 to head to 1.1230/40, however, reckon previous res at 1.1265 should cap upside and yield retreat later.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.1161 would risk re-test of 1.1135 but 2019 bottom at 1.1112 (April) should remain intact.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia AIG construction index, retail sales, retail trade, trade balance, imports, exports, RBA interest rate decision, New Zealand GDT price index, Japan Nikkei manufacturing PMI.
Germany factory orders, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, UK Halifax house price.
U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings, and Canada Ivey PMI.

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AceTraderFx May 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 May 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1235
Euro's retreat in New York session on Mon after re-test previous May's 1.1265 high (Reuters) suggests recent erratic upmove has possibly make a top there and consolidation with downside bias is seen, below 1.1204/08 would add credence to this view and bring stronger retracement to 1.1167/70.

Only above 1.1265 risks marginal gain, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price at 1.1300/04.
The euro area will release a slew of eco. data during European morning, please refer to our Economic Indicator section for details.

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AceTraderFx May 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 May 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1204
Yesterday's anticipated fall from 1.1246 (Reuters) to 1.1201 near New York close confirms recent erratic rise from May's 1.1135 low has made a top at 1.1265 (Reuters) on Monday and consolidation with downside bias remains for further weakness, however, reckon 1.1135 should continue to hold and bring choppy sideways swings.

Only above 1.1265 risks stronger correction of Medium Term downtrend to 1.1290/00 later this week.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data (pls refer to our EI page for details). ECB's Lane will give a speech in Tallinn at 08:00GMT. German ECONMIN Altmaier will speak at 12:30GMT, then ECB's Coeure will speak in Paris at 14:15GMT and later ECB's Chief Economist Praet will speak in Belgium at 16:30GMT.

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AceTraderFx May 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 May 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1206
Despite euro's resumption of decline from this week's 1.1265 high (Monday) to 1.1178 on Italy's budget deficit concerns, intra-day jump to 1.1225 after news Trump may delay auto-tariffs suggests choppy trading inside recent 1.1135-1.1265 broad range would continue with upside bias.

Only below 1.1178 risks marginal weakness but loss of downward momentum should keep price well above 1.1135 and bring another rebound later.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Japan corporate goods price, China house price index, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, Italy CPI, trade balance, EU trade balance, U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey, and Canada manufacturing sales ADP employment change.

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