AceTraderFx: Daily Market Outllook on Major -EUR/USD

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AceTraderFx Aug 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1098
Despite euro's selloff from 1.1158 on Thursday due to dovish comments from ECB's Rehn and then break of 1.1131 support to 1.1092 in New York suggests correction from August's 26-month trough at 1.1028 has ended earlier at 1.1249, loss of momentum should keep price above 1.1061/71 and yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 1.1131 would yield retracement to 1.1158/63 before prospect of another fall.

Economic calendar from the euro area countries is very thin today with the EU's trade balance being the only data due out at 09:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Aug 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1090
Euro's last week's decline from 1.1230 to as low as 1.1067 on Friday suggests correction from August's fresh 2-year trough at 1.1028 has ended earlier at 1.1249 and subsequent short-covering rebound to 1.1106 in New York would bring consolidation before another fall, however, loss of momentum should keep price well above said 2019 bottom.

Only a daily close above 1.1131 signals temporary low is made and risks stronger retracement to 1.1158/63 but 1.1190 should cap upside.

On the data front, the EU will release a slew of data starting with current account, HICP and core HICP.

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AceTraderFx Aug 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

Euro's fall from 1.1113 (Europe) yesterday to 1.1077 as the greenback regained traction in New York session suggests recovery from Friday's 2-week low at 1.1067 has ended and recent decline would head to 1.1040/50 after consolidation, loss of downward momentum is likely to keep price above Aug's fresh 2-year bottom at 1.1028 and bring rebound later today or tomorrow.

Only a daily close above 1.1113 signals temporary low is made and risk stronger retracement of recent erratic fall from 1.1249 to 1.1158, break, 1.1180/90.

Data to be released Tuesday:
Germany PPI, Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, EU construction output, UK CBI trend order.
Canada manufacturing sales and U.S. redbook, Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing business outlook survey.

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AceTraderFx Aug 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Aug 2019 06:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1095
Although yesterday's rebound after falling one tick below last Fri's 1.1067 low to a 2-1/2 week trough of 1.1066 suggests recent decline from 1.1249 has made a temporary bottom and initial range trading is envisaged, as long as 1.1131 holds, marginal weakness is likely, loss of downward momentum should keep price above Aug's fresh 2-year low at 1.1028.

A daily close above 1.1131 would shift risk to the upside for stronger retracement of aforesaid fall to 1.1158, then later 1.1180/90.

No economic data is due out from the euro area countries, so order flows or news headlines will have greater influence on price moves. U.K. PM Johnson will meet with German Chancellor Merkel for Brexit talk later today, so one can expect eur/gbp cross to swing around on Brexit news.

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AceTraderFx Aug 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1088
Although euro's rebound from Tuesday's 2-week low at 1.1066 to 1.1107 yesterday suggests recent decline from 1.1249 has made a temporary low and range trading is expected, as long as 1.1131 (previous sup, now res) holds, marginal weakness is likely, loss of downward momentum should keep price well above August's 2-year bottom at 1.1028 and yield strong retracement of aforesaid fall later.

Only above 1.1131 would risk stronger retracement to 1.1158/63 but reckon 1.1190 should remain intact.

On the data front, today is PMI day in the euro area countries, pay attention to release of France's Markit preliminary mfg and services PMIs, then the same from Germany and the EU.
Then ECB minutes at 12:30GMT and later consumer confidence at 14:00GMT. We also have ECB's ECB's Coeure, Lane and Lautenschlager speaking at the annual Jackson Hole symposium.

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AceTraderFx Aug 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1081
Despite yesterday's cable-led brief bounce from a near 3-week low at 1.1064, as long as this week's high at 1.1113 (Tuesday) holds, downside bias remains for weakness towards August's 2-year bottom at 1.1028 (less dovish speech at Jackson Hole by Fed's Powell perhaps), a break there needed to extend recent downtrend to next projected downside target at 1.0975 next week.

On the upside, a daily close above 1.1131 (previous sup, now res) confirms temporary low is made and risk would shift to upside for stronger retracement to 1.1158, then 1.1180/90.

After yesterday's data dump on euro area's PMIs, no economic data is due out, so all eyes are on J. Powell's speech.

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AceTraderFx Aug 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1144
Despite euro's fall to a 3-week bottom at 1.1052 on Fri, subsequent rally to 1.1153 in New York on escalation in U.S.-China trade war, then to 1.1164 today suggests volatile trading above August's 26-month trough at 1.1028 would continue with upside bias.

On the downside, only below 1.1099 would risk weakness to 1.1064/67 before prospect of rebound.

Today is the final day of the 3-day G7 leaders' summit in France. On the data front, pay attention to release of key German Ifo business climate, current conditions and expectations, street forecasts are looking for weaker readings from previous readings due to recent recessions fears in Germany, however, euro bulls should buy eur/usd on dips.

 

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AceTraderFx Aug 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1103
Although euro's impressive rally from 1.1052 to 1.1153 last Fri in New York session suggests further volatile trading above August's 26-month bottom at 1.1028 would continue, yesterday's decline from 1.1164 to 1.1095 on easing of Sino-U.S. tensions signal choppy sideways swings are in store, reckon 1.1064/67 sup would contain weakness and bring rebound.

On the upside, only above 1.1164 would extend said near term rise marginally higher, loss of upward momentum should cap price at 1.1200/10.

On the data front, Germany will release Q2 GDP n then France will release business climate n consumer confidence, if actual reading come in weaker than street forecast, expect euro to come under renewed selling but downside is likely to be limited. ECB's Vice-President de Guindos will make a speech at the Annual Congress of the European Economic Association. in Manchester, U.K. at 13:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Aug 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1091
Euro's decline from 1.1164 (Mon) to 1.1087 yesterday due to selling in eur/gbp cross suggests near term upmove from Friday's 3-week trough at 1.1052 has made a top there and consolidation with initial downside bias is seen, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1064/67 and bring rebound.

On the upside, a daily close above 1.1115 signals pullback from 1.1164 is over and may head back towards said res level later this week.

On the data front, Germany will kick off with GfK consumer confidence and import prices, then Italy's business and consumer confidence.

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AceTraderFx Aug 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1086
Euro's impressive rally from 1.1052 last Friday to as high as 1.1164 on Monday suggests further volatile trading above August's 26-month bottom at 1.1028 would continue, despite subsequent strong retreat, as 1.1074 has contained weakness yesterday, consolidation with upside bias is retained, above 1.1115 may head back towards 1.1164.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1074 dampens mildly bullish outlook and risks decline towards 1.1052, break would yield weakness to 1.1028.

On the economic calendar, the euro area countries will release a raft of eco. data, please refer to our EI section for details.

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