AceTraderFx: Daily Market Outllook on Major -EUR/USD

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AceTraderFx Apr 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Apr 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0840
Euro's anticipated resumption of decline from last week's 1.11477 high to Thursday's 1-week low of 1.0821 on renewed usd's strength due to safe-haven demand following blowout U.S. jobless claims suggests correction from March's near 3-year bottom at 1.0637 has ended.

As long as 1.0904 holds, further weakness towards 1.0786 is envisaged after consolidation, however, reckon 1.0747 should contain weakness. A daily close above 1.0904 would risk stronger retracement of aforesaid fall towards 1.0969 next Monday.

Today is PMI day in the euro area countries where Markit services and mfg PMIs for Mar will be released (see our EI page for details) and these readings will be very 'weak' in the aftermath of the coronavirus outbreak, so expect euro to come under renewed selling when data from Italy, France, Germany and the EU are released.

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AceTraderFx Apr 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Apr 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0811
Euro's decline for 5 consecutive days last week to 1.0774 in post-NFP New York on Fri suggests early corrective rally from March's near 3-year bottom at 1.0637, although strong, has ended at 1.1147 and downside bias remains for further weakness after consolidation, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 1.0721 today and bring rebound.

On the upside, only above 1.0904 signals temporary low is made and may risk stronger retracement to 1.0927/31 before prospect of another fall later this week.

Data to be released today:
Australia ANZ job advertisements, China market holiday, Germany industrial orders, UK Markit construction PMI and EU Sentix index.

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AceTraderFx Apr 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Apr 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0792
Although euro's recent decline from 1.1147 to as low as 1.0769 yesterday suggests correction from Mar's near 3-year bottom at 1.0637 has ended, subsequent recovery would bring sideways trading before marginal weakness, near term loss of downward momentum would keep price above 1.0721 today.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0866 may risk stronger retracement towards 1.0904 before prospect of another fall later this week.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI section for details. Eurogroup officials meet today in Brussels n fiscal measures to support the EZ economy due to fallout from COVID-19 may come late in the day.

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AceTraderFx Apr 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Apr 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0878
Although euro's recent sharp fall from 1.1147 to as low as 1.0769 on Monday suggests early correction from March's near 3-year bottom at 1.0637 has ended, yesterday's rally above 1.0834 (Monday high, now sup) to 1.0926 due to broad-based usd's weakness on return of risk sentiment suggests temporary low has been made and 1-2 days of consolidation with upside bias is seen.

Expect 1.1000 to cap present rebound and yield subsequent retreat. A daily close below 1.0834 would indicate correction has ended, then price would head back towards 1.0769 later this week.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Japan current account, trade balance, machinery orders, economy watchers current, economy watchers outlook.
Canada leading index, housing starts, building permits, and U.S. MBA mortgage applications, FOMC minutes.

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AceTraderFx Apr 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Apr 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0863
Euro's rally from this week's 1.0769 low (Tuesday) to 1.0926 on Tuesday suggests recent decline from 1.1147 has made a temporary low and as price has rebounded after intra-day brief but strong retreat to 1.0831 in Europe, upside bias remains for marginal gain after consolidation, loss of upward momentum should limit upside to 1.0958 (50% r from 1.1147).

Only a daily close below 1.0831 suggests recovery has ended instead, then risk would shift to downside for weakness to 1.0800, then re-test of 1.0769 'later'.

Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand retail sales, Japan consumer confidence index.
UK RICS housing price balance, GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance,Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, Italy industrial output.
U.S. initial jobless claims, PPI, core PPI, University of Michigan sentiment, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, and Canada employment change, unemployment rate.

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AceTraderFx Apr 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Apr 2020 03:30GMT


EUR/USD - 1.0924
Despite resumption of upmove from last week's 1.0769 trough to retrace early decline from 1.1147 to an 11-day high of 1.0967 in holiday-thin Asia, subsequent weakness due to broad-based euro selling suggests top is possibly made and consolidation with downside bias is seen, however, reckon sup at 1.0831 would hold from here.

Only above 1.0967 risks marginal gain but loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.1000 and yield decline.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, China exports, imports, trade balance and U.S. import prices, exports, redbook.

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AceTraderFx Apr 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Apr 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0986
Yesterday's resumption of upmove from April's 1.0769 low to a near 2-week high of 1.0987 in New York due to continued usd's weakness suggests said move would head to 1.1000/10 after consolidation, however, overbought condition would cap price below 1.1039 and yield a much-needed correction.

On the downside, below 1.0948 would signal temporary top is made and bring retracement to 1.0916, then later towards 1.0893.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand food price index, Australia consumer sentiment.
France CPI (EU norm), CPI, Italy consumer prices, CPI (EU norm).
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, New York Fed manufacturing index, retail sales ex-autos, retail sales, industrial production, capital utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, NAHB housing market index, and Canada BoC interest rate decision.

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AceTraderFx Apr 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Apr 2020 03:30GMT


EUR/USD - 1.0886
Yesterday's intra-day fall from a near 2-week high of 1.0991 (AUS) to as low as 1.0857 in New York morning due to renewed usd's strength on risk aversion suggests early erratic rise from April's 1.0769 bottom has ended, despite subsequent short-covering rebound to 1.0939 after downbeat U.S. eco. data, present weakness in Asia has retained bearishness, below 1.0857 would encourage for weakness towards 1.0831.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0939 dampens bearish view and may risk another rise to 1.0967, however, reckon 1.0987/91 res would remain intact and yield further choppy swings.

Data to be released on Thursday :
UK BRC retail sales, China house price index, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, Germany CPI, HICP, wholesale price index, Swiss producer/import price index, EU industrial production.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and Canada manufacturing sales.

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AceTraderFx Apr 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Apr 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0860
Euro's 'erratic' fall from Wed's near 2-week peak of 1.0991 to 1.0817 yesterday due to broad-based usd buying on risk-off trade suggests early rise from Apr's 1.0769 low has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said temporary low next week.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0905 dampens present bearish scenario and risks stronger gain towards 1.0938, break, 1.0967.

The euro area will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our Eco. Indicator page for details.

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AceTraderFx Apr 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Apr 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0864
Despite euro's decline from last Wed's near 2-week high of 1.0991 (AUS) to 1.0813 on Friday, subsequent rebound to 1.0892 in New York suggests temporary low has been made and choppy sideways swings are in store, reckon 1.0905/15 would cap recovery and yield another fall.

Below 1.0813 would encourage for weakness towards Apr's low at 1.0769 later this week. Only above 1.0939 aborts bearishness and may risk gain towards 1.0991.

Data to be released today:
New Zealand CPI, UK Rightmove house price, Japan exports, imports, trade balance.
Germany producer prices, EU current account, trade balance, nation activity index.
Canada wholesale trade on Monday.

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