AceTraderFx: DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major - USD/JPY

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AceTraderFx May 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 May 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.21
Although dlr's decline from last Wed's 11-week high of 108.65 in post-NFP New York on Friday suggests recent strong upmove has made a temporary top, subsequent brief bounce to 109.27 and then intra-day choppy sideways swings signal range trading is in store.

As long as 109.57/60 holds, stronger retracement towards 108.55 objective is envisaged and only above 109.60 signals pullback is possibly over, risks gain to 110.00/04.

After last Friday's release of blockbuster NFP data and a slew of other eco. data, there is no data due out later today in the U.S., however, we have a number of Fed officials delivering speeches, please refer to our EI page for details.

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AceTraderFx May 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 May 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.98
The greenback's sharp retreat from yesterday's high at 109.40 to 108.86 today suggests recovery from last Friday's low at 108.65 has ended there and choppy trading below last Wednesday's near 3-month peak at 110.04 would continue with downside bias.
However, below said support is needed to yield stronger retracement of recent upmove towards 108.50/55 before prospect of rebound.

On the upside, only above 109.40 would indicate the pullback from 110.04 has ended instead and risk stronger gain towards 109.60 but 109.74/75 should remain intact and yield retreat.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Japan's household spending, Australia's retail sales, Japan household spending, Australia retail sales.
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany industrial output, exports, imports, trade balance, current account, UK Halifax house prices.;
Canada housing starts, and U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings.

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AceTraderFx May 09: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 May 2018 03:00GMT

USD/JPY - 109.52.. Despite yesterday's wild swings in hectic New York trading (due to position adjustments before Trump's announcement on Iran nuclear deal and then intra-day brief but sharp fall on U.S. withdrawal from the deal), the greenback jumped shorty after Tokyo morning on Wednesday as rising U.S. yields and renewed usd's strength boosted risk appetite led to broad-based yen selling, the pair rallied from 109.00 (AUS) to as high as 109.64 after tripping stops above 109.40 before easing ahead of Tokyo lunch break.

Dlr's intra-day break above 109.40 (Monday high) suggests the correction from May's 110.04 peak has ended earlier at 108.65 (Friday) and consolidation with upside bias remains, so buying the buck on dips is favoured.
Bids are noted at 108.40-30 and more below with stops below 108.80.
Offers are tipped at 109.65/75 with stops above 110.05.

On the data front, U.S. will release MBA mortgage applications, final PPI and wholesale inventories.
Atlanta Fed President Bostic (voter) will speak at a conference at 17:15GMT.

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AceTraderFx May 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 May 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.54
Despite the greenback's rise to 110.02 last Thursday, subsequent retreat to 109.15 Friday on dollar's broad-based weakness suggests choppy trading below May's 11-week peak at 110.04 would continue with downside bias and weakness towards 108.84 is likely to be seen.
However, 108.65 (reaction low) would remain intact and yield another rise towards said resistance early next week. Above would retain bullishness for gain towards 110.44/50.

On the downside, only below 108.65 would confirm a temporary top has been made and risk would increase for a stronger retracement towards 108.10/20.

There is no eco. data due out from the U.S., however, 2 Fed Presidents will be speaking today starting with Cleveland Fed's Mester (voter) at 06:45GMT in Paris n later St. Louis Fed's Bullard (non-voter) at 13:40GMT in New York.

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AceTraderFx May 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 May 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 110.23
The greenback's rise above May's near 11-week peak at 110.04 to 110.45 yesterday on a rally in U.S. yields suggests erratic upmove from March's trough at 104.57 has finally resumed and consolidation with upside bias would be seen for stronger gain towards 110.80/84, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 111.00 and yield a much-needed correction later.

On the downside, only below 109.55 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement of aforesaid rise to 109.42 but support at 109.15 should remain intact and yield rebound later this week.

After Tuesday's key retail sales data, U.S. will release MBA mortgage applications, building permits, housing starts, industrial production, capacity utilization, n mfg output. If housing data comes out better than forecast, traders may use this as excuse to push the greenback higher. Atlanta Fed President Bostic (voter) will speak at 12:30GMT.

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AceTraderFx May 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 May 2018 9:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.36
The greenback's rise to a fresh 3-1/2 month peak at 111.08 on Friday on rising U.S. Treasury yields and intra-day break of this resistance signals upmove from March's trough at 104.57 remains in progress and further gain towards 111.88/90 would be seen.
However, over bough condition would prevent sharp move beyond there and risk would increase for a much-needed correction later this week.

On the downside, only below 110.61 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.45/50 before prospect of a rebound.

Data out today:
New Zealand retail sales, Japan exports, imports, trade balance.
Swiss market holiday, France market holiday, Germany market holiday, U.K. Rightmove house price.
Canada market holiday, and U.S. National activity index on Monday.

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AceTraderFx May 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 May 2018 9:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.88
Dollar's intra-day selloff which started in Asia and then break of previous 110.04 sup in Europe due to falling U.S. yields confirms Medium Term rise from 2018 bottom at 104.57 (March) has indeed made a temporary high at 111.40 (Monday) and downside bias remains for stronger correction to 109.15/25.

On the upside, only a daily close above 110.61 signals 1st leg of correction is over and may risk stronger retracement to 110.90/00.

On the U.S. eco. data front, all eyes are on the release of last FOMC meeting minutes at 18:00GMT, before that, we have MBA mortgage application, building permits, Markit mfg and services indices, and then new home sales.
Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari (non-voter) will speak at 18:15GMT.

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AceTraderFx May 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 May 2018 9:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.61
The greenback's intra-day selloff and subsequent break of last week's low at 109.96 signals decline from May's peak at 111.40 has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 108.30/32 would be seen.
However, loss of momentum would keep price above 108.00/05 and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the upside, only above 109.83 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 110.04 before prospect of retreat.

Expect trading to swing back to normal in Europe due to closure of U.K. and U.S. markets on Monday and many Asian centres today.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today starting with CaseShiller home price index, then consumer confidence and Dallas Fed mfg activity index.

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AceTraderFx Jun 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Jun 2018 9:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.11
The greenback's intra-day selloff and subsequent break of last week's low at 109.96 signals decline from May's peak at 111.40 has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 108.30/32 would be seen, however, loss of momentum would keep price above 108.00/05 and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the upside, only above 109.83 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 110.04 before prospect of retreat.

Today is the first trading day of a new month as well as the 1st Fri of Jun, so we have release of the blockbuster U.S. NFP as well as other jobs data including the important average hourly earnings, if readings of these 2 data beat forecast, then the greenback would strength across the board, however, if they miss estimate, then be prepared for a stronger retracement of recent usd uptrend after hitting a 6-month high of 95.025 (Tuesday).
U.S. will also release Markit mfg PMI, then ISM mfg PMI n construction spending. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will be speaking at 12:55GMT.

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AceTraderFx Jun 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Jun 2018 9:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.48
Despite the greenback's selloff to as low as 108.12 last Tuesday, subsequent strong rebound to 109.74 suggests the first leg of correction from May's peak at 111.40 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias would be seen.
However, above 110.15 (61.8% r) is needed to confirm this view and yield gain towards 110.33.

On the downside, only below 109.08 (previous resistance) would indicate said recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for weakness towards 108.39 later this week.

Data to be released today:
Swiss non-farm payrolls, U.K. Markit construction PMI, EU sentix index, producer prices.
U.S. ISM New York index, durables ex-defence, durable goods, durables ex-transportation, factory orders.

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