AceTraderFx: DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major - USD/JPY

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AceTraderFx May 07: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.14
The greenback's sideways move after Monday's break above last Friday's high at 109.27 to a 2-week peak at 109.69 suggests upmove from last April's 6-week bottom at 107.49 to retrace decline from March's 1-year peak at 110.96 remains in progress and further gain to 109.95/00 would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 110.20/25 and yield correction early next week.

On the downside, only below 108.44 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.08/10 before prospect of a rebound.

Data to be released on Friday :
Australia AIG services index, Japan Services PMI, China Caixin services PMI, exports, imports, trade balance, New Zealand inflation forecast
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany industrial output, exports, imports, trade balance, current account, France current account, industrial output, non-farm payrolls, trade balance, imports, exports, Italy retail sales, U.K. Markit construction PMI.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, wholesale inventory, wholesale sales, Canada employment change, unemployment rate, Ivey PMI.

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AceTraderFx May 10: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.93
The greenback's selloff from 109.28 to as low as 108.35 at New York open on Friday on the release of poor U.S. jobs report suggests upmove from April's 6-week bottom at 107.49 has made a temporary top at 109.69 last Monday and consolidation with downside bias remains and weakness to 108.60/65 is likely, however, 108.47/50 should remain intact and yield rebound later this week.

On the upside, only above 109.15 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and bring gain to 109.48, then 109.69 again.

Data to be released today:
Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, retail sales.
U.K. Halifax house prices, EU Sentix index.
Canada leading index on Monday.

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AceTraderFx May 11: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.86
The greenback's selloff from 109.28 to as low as 108.35 at New York open on Friday on the release of poor U.S. jobs report suggests upmove from April's 6-week bottom at 107.49 has made a temporary top at 109.69 last Monday and consolidation with downside bias remains and weakness to 108.60/65 is likely, however, 108.47/50 should remain intact and yield rebound later this week.

On the upside, only above 109.15 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and bring gain to 109.48, then 109.69 again.

On the data front, U.S. will release some second-tier eco. indicators, however, we have 5 Fed officials schedule to speak later today, please refer to our EI page for details.

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AceTraderFx May 12: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.79
Although dollar's rebound from yesterday's 108.36 low suggests choppy trading above last Friday's 108.35 trough would be seen, as long as 109.05 (Monday's high) holds, downside bias remains and below said support would extend decline from May's near 3-week 109.69 peak to 108.22 (61.8% r from 107.49) but 108.08 should hold, yield another bounce.

On the upside, only above 109.05 risks gain to 109.28, break, 109.42/48 later.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data (please refer to our EI page for details), after Friday's blockbuster U.S. jobs report, traders are keeping an eye out for CPI figures, a higher print will send U.S. yields higher and this will turn lead to usd buying n vice versa.

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AceTraderFx May 13: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.56
The greenback's rally yesterday on the release of upbeat U.S. inflation data together with jump in U.S. yields and break of May's 3-week peak at 109.69 signals erratic upmove from April's bottom at 107.49 has finally resumed and further gain to 110.20/30 would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 110.50/60 and yield a much-needed correction later.

On the downside, only below 108.98/05 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.58, then 108.35/36.

As many European centres are closed for Ascension Day holiday, traders will look to release of U.S. eco. data later today, pay attention to weekly jobless claims, continued jobless claims as well as PPI n core PPI, all due out at 12:30GMT. We also have a number of Fed officials scheduled to speak in New York session, pls refer to our EI page for details.

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AceTraderFx May 14: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.28
Despite the greenback's rally on Wednesday on the release of upbeat U.S. inflation data to a 1-month peak at 109.78 yesterday, intra-day retreat suggests the upmove from March's bottom at 107.49 has possibly made a temporary top there and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen, however, 108.98/05 should remain intact and yield another rebound early next week.

On the upside, only above 109.65 would revive bullishness for a re-test of said resistance, break would head to 110.05/10 before prospect of correction.

T.G.I.F., however, U.S. will later release a slew eco. data (please refer to our EI page for details) which are expected to move the buck. Please pay attention to retail sales, industrial production n later University of Michigan consumer confidence, a higher-than-expected reading on these data vs forecast will give usd a boost. Dallas Fed President Kaplan (non-voter) will speak at 17:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx May 17: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.28
Despite the greenback's rally last Wednesday on the release of upbeat U.S. inflation data to a 1-month peak at 109.78 Thursday, subsequent retreat on weak US retail sales data Friday suggests the upmove from March's bottom at 107.49 has possibly made a temporary top there and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen, however, 108.98/05 should remain intact and yield another rebound.

On the upside, only above 109.65 would revive bullishness for a re-test of said resistance, break would head to 110.05/10 before prospect of correction.

On the data front, U.S. will later release New York fed mfg index n then NAHB housing market index.
Fed's Vice Chairman Clarida will speak at a financial forum at 14:05GMT.

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AceTraderFx May 18: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.88
Despite the greenback's rally last Wednesday on the release of upbeat U.S. inflation data to a 1-month peak at 109.78 Thursday, subsequent retreat on weak US retail sales data Friday suggests the upmove from March's bottom at 107.49 has possibly made a temporary top there and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen, however, 108.98/05 should remain intact and yield another rebound.

On the upside, only above 109.65 would revive bullishness for a re-test of said resistance, break would head to 110.05/10 before prospect of correction.

On the data front, U.S. will release 2nd-tier eco. data (pls refer to our EI page for details), however, we have Atlanta Fed President Bostic (voter) n Dallas Fed President Kaplan (non-voter) speaking in New York session ahead of release of Wednesday's Fed minutes.

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AceTraderFx May 20: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.96
Despite the dollar's selloff from 109.33 to as low as 108.58 yesterday, subsequent strong rebound to 109.30 in Asia today due to rising U.S. yields following the release of hawkish FOMC minutes suggests near term decline from last week's 1-month peak at 109.78 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 109.50, however, said top would hold on first testing.

On the downside, only below 108.58 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of rise from 107.48 (April) to 108.35/36.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Japan Machinery orders, exports, imports, trade balance, Australia employment change, unemployment change.
Germany producer prices, EU construction output, current account, U.K. CBI trends orders.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continuous jobless claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing index, leading index change, Canada ADP employment change, new housing price index.


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AceTraderFx May 21: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.65
Despite dollar's strong rebound on Wednesday from 108.58 to 109.30 in Australia yesterday due to hawkish Fed minutes, subsequent fall to 108.76, then intra-day break there suggests decline from May's 1-month 109.78 peak would resume and extend marginally, however, oversold condition should prevent steep fall below 108.35/36 and yield another bounce.

On the upside, above 108.89 (Asia) would risk stronger retracement to 109.05/10 but 109.30/33 should cap upside.

Data to be released on Friday:
Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI.
U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, retail sales, Japan nationwide CPI, Jibun bank manufacturing PMI, U.K. retail sales, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Swiss industrial production, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, consumer confidence.
Canada retail sales, U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, existing home sale.

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