AceTraderFx: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today

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AceTraderFx May 6: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views - AUD/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 May 2016 02:40GMT

AUD/USD - .... Aussie tumbled after release of 'dovish' RBA's quaterly report. Reuters reported Australia's central bank slashed its inflation forecasts on Friday and warned that the outlook for wages and price pressures were a key uncertainty, suggesting the door was open to another cut in interest rates.
In its 66-page quarterly report, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) gave no explicit guidance that it will ease again as it maintained its growth projections for a gradual strengthening through mid-2018.

On Tuesday, the RBA cut its cash rate by 25 basis points to an all time low of 1.75 percent, citing surprisingly low inflation readings for the first quarter.
RBA now sees underlying inflation at just 1 to 2 percent for 2016, down from a previous forecast of 2 to 3 percent. The central bank aims to keep inflation withing a 2 to 3 percent band over the medium term.
It expected only a modest pick up to 1.5 to 2.5 percent through to mid-2018. The downward revision reflected an expectation that domestic pressures, including labour costs, will pick up more gradually than previously anticipated, the central bank explained.

RBA cut forecasts for wage growth and warned it would remain around current low levels for longer than previously forecast and pick up only very gradually. This was consistent with the movement of workers from highly paid mining-related jobs to other employment.
RBA noted on the outlook for domestic cost pressures is a key source of uncertainty, and adding another big unknown is how the exchange rate will react to a myriad of overseas risks. It may respond to a number of influences, including any unanticipated changes to the outlook for growth in China, commodity prices or the monetary policy decisions of the major central banks. It therefore represents a significant source of uncertainty for the forecasts of inflation, as well as for the outlook for growth in activity.

For now, the central bank is maintaining its forecasts for gross domestic product growth. It sees the economy growing at a 2.5 to 3.5 percent pace for 2016, lifting slightly to 3 to 4 percent by mid-2018, thanks to low interest rates and a weaker local dollar.
The exchange rate fell sharply from 2013 to late 2015. It reacted negatively to Tuesday's rate cut decision, but held above the troughs reached in September.

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AceTraderFx May 9: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views - USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 May 2016 01:20GMT

USD/JPY - ...... The greenback found renewed support in New Zealand and gained in Australia, hitting session high at 107.63 at Tokyo open due to the initial rise in Nikkei-225.
However, profit-taking there capped current rise and pressured the pair lower.
Since there is no major data due from U.S. today, Asian and European traders will continue to focus on Friday's jobs report and the implications it would have on the upcoming FOMC meeting.

Bids are now seen at 107.20/30 and more below at 107.00/10 with stops building up above there whilst initial offers are noted at 107.90/00, suggesting near term upside bias remains, hence buying on dips is favored.

Breaking news from Reuters, quoting from BoJ's March meeting minutes:
Some members of BOJ had noted that the attention should be focused to fact consumer sentiment indicators which had shown somewhat a sharp deterioration due to market turbulence. They have agreed that underlying trend in inflation had been improving steadily.

The yr-on-yr increase in CPI, excluding fresh food and energy, would come in lower than previously projected from early spring and that there had been adverse effects from adoption of negative rate policy, such as heightening anxiety among financial institutions and depositors over the policy.
A few of them commented that the portfolio rebalancing under QQE with a negative interest rate had not necessarily exerted its intended effects.

While the government representatives commented that the attention should be paid to increasing uncertainty in overseas economies, effects of market fluctuations on Japan's economy and they hoped BoJ would continued thoroughly in explaining its negative rate policy, as this was somewhat technical and might be hard to understand for the public.

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AceTraderFx May 10: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views - GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 May 2016 05:00GMT

GBP/USD - ....... Cable weakened in tandem with euro in Asia, this may due to renewed market jitter of 'Brexit'. Reuters this morning more British businesses now want to leave the European Union than earlier this year, the British Chambers of Commerce said in a survey on Tuesday, though most of its members want to remain.
The BCC, one of Britain's two main employer organisations, said 37 percent of members intend to vote to leave the EU in June's referendum, based on a poll conducted in early April, up from 30 percent in a poll conducted between Jan. 23 and Feb. 4. The proportion who want to remain dropped to 54 percent from 60 percent.

BCC members' support for EU membership exceeds the public's. Opinion polls show British voters are roughly evenly split, with one poll from market research company ICM on Monday showing 46 percent of those likely to vote wanted to leave, compared with 44 percent who wished to stay.
The BCC's online survey of more than 2,000 of its members took place before the publication of a raft of reports from Britain's finance ministry, the International Monetary Fund and others warning of economic damage if Britain leaves the EU.

In contrast to other surveys suggesting the referendum debate was aggravating an economic slowdown, the BCC said 71 percent of its members found the debate was having no impact on sales and 80 percent reported no impact on investment.
Nearly a third of firms said their growth would be boosted if Britain stayed in the EU, while 16 percent said they would gain if Britain left. Almost half felt EU membership made little difference.

Looking purely at firms which do not sell goods or services to the EU -- a minority of respondents to the BCC survey, but a majority of British businesses overall -- more wanted to leave the EU than to stay, the BCC said.
John Longworth, who had to step down as BCC director general in March after expressing support for Brexit, and now campaigns for a 'Leave' vote, said these non-exporting firms were more representative of British business than other BCC members.

"Despite the claims of the pro-EU camp to the contrary, business is not fearful of the referendum or the result," he said in a statement released by the Vote Leave campaign group.
The BCC has an official neutral stance on EU membership. The Confederation of British Industry, which mostly represents larger firms than the BCC, says 80 percent of its members want to remain in the EU and that leaving would bring heavy economic costs.

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AceTraderFx May 11: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
11 May 2016 03:00GMT

USD/JPY - ...... The greenback rose in European session yesterday to 109.28, then to 109.35 in New York afternoon on broad-based weakness in Japanese yen after verbal yen-intervention from Japanese officials earlier in the day. Price resumed it ascent and hit a high at 109.38 in Australia.
However, lack of follow-through buying triggered profit-taking and price retreated to 109.05 at Tokyo open.

Since there is no major economic data due from Japan or U.S. today, price is likely to be influenced by additional comments from Japanese officials regarding the yen's strength.

Bids are now lowered to 108.70/80 and more below at 108.50/60 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 109.70/80, suggesting further choppy trading would be seen.

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AceTraderFx May 12: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 May 2016 02:00GMT

USD/JPY - ...... The greenback met renewed selling at 108.83 at New York open and ratcheted lower to 108.37 in New York afternoon on dlr's broad-based weakness and briefly fell below said low to 108.23 at Asian open.
However, lack of follow-through selling triggered short-covering and price rebounded to 108.59 in Tokyo morning.

There is a slew of data to be released from U.S. today but investors should pay particular attention to the release of jobless claims at 12:30GMT.
Street forecast is for a slight decrease to 270K from previous reading of 274K.

Bids are now lowered to 107.90/00 and more below at 107.60/70 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 108.70/80, suggesting further choppy trading would be seen.

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AceTraderFx May 13: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 May 201602:00GMT

USD/JPY - ...... The greenback found renewed buying at 108.74 in early European morning and rallied to session high at 109.40 ahead of New York open as comments from BoJ Gov Kuroda triggered broad-based selling in the yen. However, dlr pared its gains and tumbled to 108.63 in New York morning, weighed by release of poor U.S. jobless claims.
Later, price found support there and rebounded to 109.16 in New York afternoon before retreating again to 108.76 in Tokyo morning.

Mkt attention is now on the release of U.S. retail sales and retail sales ex. auto, especially since a high rise is expected. Street forecasts are 0.8% and 0.5% vs previous readings of -0.4% and 0.1% respectively.
A surprise to the downside would push plans for Fed's rate hikes further down the timeline and send the dlr lower.

Offers are now seen at 109.10/20 and more above at 109.30/40 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 108.30/40, suggesting choppy trading with downside bias would be seen.

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AceTraderFx May 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 May 2016 06:20GMT

EUR/USD - .... Euro fell briefly to a near 2-week low of 1.1353 despite in-line German economic data. Reuters reported comments by German Econ Minister Gabriel who says GDP growth data are good news, we must use this momentum for investment in education, infrastructure and innovation.
Germany has more than doubled of its economic growth rate in the first quarter of 2016 as higher state and household spending, as well as rising investment on construction and capital goods offset a drag from foreign trade, preliminary data showed on Friday.

The economy grew by 0.7 percent on the quarter between January and March after it expanded by 0.3 percent in the final three months of 2015, the Federal Statistics Office said. That was higher than the consensus forecast in a Reuters poll for 0.6 percent growth.

Nonadjusted data showed the economy expanded by 1.3 percent on the year in early 2016, missing the Reuters consensus forecast for 1.5 percent growth.

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AceTraderFx May 17: Japanese government would NOT delay a sales tax hike scheduled for next year

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 May 2016 01:30GMT

The Nikkei business daily reported at the weekend that the government would delay the tax increase to focus on measures to boost domestic demand. But today, Japanese Economy Minister Nobuteru Ishihara speaking to reporters, that there is no truth on the media report that the government would delay a sales tax hike scheduled for next year.
they had not received any instructions from Prime Minister Abe about the sales tax hike and that he would continue his work on compiling the government's annual growth strategy.

While Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso told reporters after a cabinet meeting that finance leaders from the Group of Seven rich nations will likely be discussing currencies and that Japan would place the utmost importance on stability in the foreign exchange market.
G7 finance ministers and central bank governors will meet on May 20-21 in the northeastern Japanese city of Sendai.
The finance chiefs are expected to discuss ways to adopt monetary, structural and other policies taking into account each country's situation as they tackle uncertainty over the global economy.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe speaking in parliament today, repeating that the government would raise the levy to 10 percent from the current 8 percent next April as scheduled barring a major financial crisis or significant natural disaster. He would decide on a sales tax hike planned for next year "appropriately at the appropriate time".

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AceTraderFx May 17: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views- EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 May 2016 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - ...... Despite yesterday's initial rise to session high at 1.1342 at New York open, the single currency met renewed selling and retreated to 1.1313 in New York afternoon, then marginally lower to 1.1309 ahead of Asian open today and continues to remain under pressure due to active cross-selling in eur/gbp.

In the absence of major eco. data from eurozone today, price is likely to trade in a sideways manner with offers seen at 1.1330/40 and more above at 1.1350/60 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.1280/90.

Later today the Greece's parliament will vote on a new package of tax hikes and reforms demanded by its international lenders on Sunday, two days before euro zone finance ministers assess whether Athens qualifies for much-needed bailout loans.
The bill would increase value added tax by 1 percentage point to 24%, raise tax on fuel, tobacco and alcohol, liberalize the sale of banks' non-performing loans and detail the set-up a new privatization fund.
The officials also added that it will also include details on a contingency mechanism to impose tighter austerity measures, which will be activated only if Greece misses its fiscal targets.

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AceTraderFx May 18: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 May 2016 01:12GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dlr fell in active Tokyo trading due to intra-day renewed yen's strength after Japan's GDP expanded much higher than street forecast and grew by an annualised 1.7% in January-March vs a median market forecast for a 0.2%.

Despite a brief jump to 109.25 when the GDP was released, traders bot the yen broadly and price later penetrated yesterday's low at 108.84 (New York) to 108.81.
Looks like dlr would trade with a downside bias today after hitting a fresh 2-week peak of 109.65 on Tuesday and offers are tipped at 109.15/25 with some stops above there, however, heavy offers are reported at 109.55/65.

Some bids are noted at 108.80-70 with stops touted below there and more below 108.40, however, there is market chatter of fairly good resting buy orders at 108.25-20.

No major U.S. eco. data is due out except the important FOMC minutes at 18:00GMT, however, nearly all of you who are now reading this update will be snoozing by that time.

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