Analysis from a European broker Forex.ee

[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №29 from 27/12/2014

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The US economy showed a significant positive trend in the last quarter of 2014 and it is likely to keep it in the first quarter of 2015, as now the consumer takes advantages of the labor market steady state and the low fuel prices.

The euro traders monitor the political instability in Greece. There is a risk of early parliamentary elections, if the Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras is not able to get support with a sufficient number of voters on December 29 for the choice of the President, Stavros Dimas.

Trading recommendations

Today the pair euro/dollar is trading at the upper consolidation range boundary. Next, we will consider the decrease continuation for the minimum update. Another decrease target is at the level of 1.2100. Then we expect the growth to the level of 1.2150. Later we will consider a new reduction for the level completion of 1.2050.


Pound

According to the official data from the National Statistics Office, the British workers have demonstrated production increase in the third quarter of this year. Moreover, the growth rate results turned out to be the highest for more than three years.

From the Bank of England statement, it became known that the interest rates increase is unlikely possible in the short term. The indicator points out to level of salaries that began to grow with an accelerated dynamics.

Trading recommendations

Today the pair pound and the US dollar are trading upwards. We consider the growth wave development to the level of 1.5600. Next, we expect a decrease to the level of 1.5520. Only after the such a pattern formation, we will evaluate the structure potential for the growth continuation in the future.


Yen

According to the Japanese yen, we expect the growth continuation to 121.80 only in case of the Japanese stock market growth continuation. Despite the intensive American stock indices growth, Japanese investors have taken profits more often for the last two weeks - before every more or less important event. New Year's Eve, of course, is an important event, so the decrease risk is essential to reach the level of 119.00.

Trading recommendations

Today the pair yen/dollar was trading in the correction to the level of 119.80. Next, we will consider the growth to the level of 121.00. Later, we will consider the new growth to the level of 121.70.


Gold

The precious metals markets are growing up under the influence of a slightly decrease US dollar, but their activity remains low. In Shanghai, the gold price is stable and the trading volumes are low.

The gold prices rose up to the level of $1,186 per ounce under the US dollar depreciation influence and the inactive trading.

Trading recommendations

Today the gold is trading upwards. We consider the wave continuation development with the main target of 1250.00. Structurally to implement such a wave we will consider the first structural growth development for the level testing of 1207.50.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №30 from 10/01/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The ECB President Mario Draghi made it clear that the central bank developed incentives program can include the sovereign debt purchase. The Germany industrial orders volume fell by 2.4% in November against expectations of -0.6%, the eurozone producer price index fell by 0.3% vs. -0.2%. The Eurozone retail sales were better than expected: 0.6% vs. 0.3%, but they were not able to change all the negative factors, including political (election campaign in Greece and the terrorist attack in France).

Trading recommendations

The pair EUR/USD showed a new multi-year low at the level of 1.1750. At the moment, the course is trying to recover. The immediate growth target is the resistance at the level of 1.1890, then at the level of 1.1970.


Pound

According to the published statement, the BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to leave rates at the level of 0.5%. Also, all nine members of the Committee voted to retain the bond-buying program at the level of 375 billion pounds ($ 567 billion).

Earlier, the BoE”s head Governor Mark Carney noted that the UK inflation would soon fall below the level of 1%. In the case of such scenario, he would be forced to write an open letter to the Minister of Finance George Osborne explaining the reasons of the incident.

Trading recommendations

The pair GBP/USD showed the lows at the level of 1.5030 before its recovery to 1.5080. There is a further decline possibility to 1.4960. We can not exclude the growth to the resistance that is at the level of 1.5200.


Yen

The Japanese yen fell amid the renewed global stock markets growth and the corresponding demand decrease for the safe-haven assets in anticipation of the December employment report publication.
The Nomura analysts believe that the US employment report can show growth in December by 250k while the recent data suggest the largest growth.

Trading recommendations

The pair USD/JPY is below 120.00. Now the rate is trading at the level of 118.50. The first decrease target is at the level of 118.20 and then below the level of 117.50. If the pair manages to complete this level – the way to the round level of 117.00 will be opened. In the case of growth, it will be the first target and the resistance near 119.00. The target above will be the area of the recent peaks near 120.00.


Gold

The gold interrupted the two-day decline in the US labor market report anticipation e that is able to determine the market further movement direction in the short term.

In addition, the factor, limiting demand for gold is caused by the world stock indices growth resumption.
On average, analysts predict the gold ounce near $ 1,200 in 2015, even the most optimistic forecasts mention the $ 1,600 figure.

Trading recommendations

The gold is consolidating in a quite narrow price channel after Tuesday highs testing at the level of 1,223.00. The immediate growth target – the resistance is at the levels of 1,223.20 and 1,238.50.



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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №32 from 24/01/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The European Central Bank announced the quantitative easing program launching (QE). The pair EUR/USD fell below the level of 1.1400 for the first time since November 2003.

The ECB President Mario Draghi said the ECB would monthly buy assets worth Є60.0 billion, including government bonds and European institutions debt securities. The program will start in March and will be continued till September 2016. If inflation remains below the 2%, the program duration can be extended.

Trading recommendations

The pair euro/dollar continued to decline. We expect the level of 1.1200 testing. Next we believe the pair to form a new consolidation. Then we expect the decreasing continuation. The next target is the level of 1.1100.


Pound

The pair GBP/USD updated another minimum again and for this time it is the annual one. The UK retail sales including the fuel costs increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis in December, compared with the growth by 1.6% recorded in November. Analysts expected the retail sales decline by 0.6%.

Trading recommendations

The pound/dollar has updated its lows. We expect the narrow range consolidation and then the reduction continuation to the level of 1.4900. After consolidation we wait for a decrease to another target at the level of 1.4850.


Yen

The pair USD/JPY is trading with the positive sentiment and there are prospects for its further growth. The January business activity index in the Japan manufacturing sector showed a slight increase to 52.1 against 52.0 in December which was worse than expected the stronger rise up to 52.5.

Trading recommendations

The pair dollar/yen is trying to develop a structural growth to the level of 119.30. Practically it is the pair growth continuation in the stock markets. But taking into account the cross-rate decrease within the trend downwards, we expect the pair strong decrease to the level of 115.00.


Gold

The gold renewed maximum amid the ECB decision on Thursday. However, its growth was restrained and the metal was not able to close only slightly above the level of 1300.00 dollars per ounce.

However, the gold failed to strengthen significantly its position amid the sharp US dollar growth. The gold denominated in the US dollar is becoming more expensive and less attractive to investors using other currencies when the US dollar is growing. In addition, the World Central Bank actions eliminate uncertainty that prevailed recently in the market which also reduces demand for the gold as a safe-haven.

Trading recommendations

The gold once again updated maximum and again returned to the consolidation range. Next we consider the decrease development for the first target testing at the level of 1240.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №33 from 31/01/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

Germany published the retail sales. The indicator decreased by 1,3% in January. Most often the indicator causes no active response from the euro/dollar. It is possible the euro decline to the level of 1.1200. The Eurozone also will publish the consumer inflation data in February. Most likely, we will see a deepening deflation which also will not promote optimism about the European currency.

Trading recommendations

The pair euro/dollar is traded in the first structural growth consolidation range. Further we expect the pair decrease downwards to the level of 1.1000. As an alternative, we believe in the possible consolidation breakthrough upwards with the growth continuation to the level of 1.1550.


Pound

The UK calendar does not contain anything interesting. Therefore, the pair GBP/USD is very likely to remain under the external factors influence. Till the US reports the pound can show a moderate strengthening, returning to the resistance of 1.5100-1.5130. In future it will depend on what figures the US economy will show. If it manages to maintain high growth rates, the pair can resume its decline.

Trading recommendations

The pair pound and the US dollar achieved the correctional target for a decline. We expect the level of 1.5130 testing and going below this level. The market forms a "triangle". The level of 1.5050 breakthrough upwards will lead to the growth continuation downwards to the downtrend development.


Yen

The Japanese yen has already received some support from its own data. The consumer price index remained at the level of 2.4% while it was predicted a decline to the level of 2.3%. The unemployment rate demonstrated a positive trend, falling to 3.4% from 3.5% a month earlier. The fact that the inflation decline has slowed confirms the Bank of Japan decision to refrain from further stimulating measures.

Trading recommendations

The pair dollar/yen is in the triangle. The market does not still determine the future direction. We consider the pair reduction as the main matrix scenario. And this continued consolidation can get the market strong reaction with the trend movement downwards at any time. The local target is at the level of 115.00.


Gold

Investors continued to re-evaluate its position in relation to the metal, taking into account the statements made by the US Federal Reserve.

The gold prices rose from the beginning of this year, while the raw materials and stock indices prices have fallen. However, after the Fed statements investors are beginning to consider that the pace of rates increase will mainly depend on the US economic data which have generally showed a steady increase for recent months. It has undermined arguments in favor of the metal owning.

Trading recommendations

The gold has fulfilled the first wave downwards and achieved its target. At present we consider the correctional growth phase with the target of 1305. Next on the agenda is the decline continuation to the level of 1240.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №34 from 07/02/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The European Commission raised the GDP Eurozone growth forecast for 2015. We should pay a special attention to the Germany industrial production report. We do not expect that the pair euro/dollar will demonstrate its strong reaction in response as the market will wait for the USA NFP data. But the figures will still add clarity to the German economy overall picture.

Trading recommendations

The pair euro/dollar made growth attempts during the week having fallen at the end of the week. The fall shall be continued. The target is 1.1250.


Pound

The UK will publish the trade balance data. If its deficit expands, the pair GBP/USD will be able to make a short-term decline to the level of 1.53. The pound greater decline will be possible only if the US non-farm employment payrolls latest report reflects the significant growth that is unlikely. Therefore, the pound can also try to make a rebound near the resistance level of 1.54.

Trading recommendations

The pair pound is correcting but we expect the pair to continue to develop the growth structure to the level of 1.5300 testing. Further we expect the pair decline to the level of 1.5200. Then we will consider the possibility of another structural growth development for the level testing of 1.5450. And after that we plan the pair growth completion.


Yen

The pair dollar/yen also monitor the US labor market report. The preliminary figures, namely, the employment component in the composition of the ISM and ADP data have already disappointed, showing signs of the sector slowdown. Thus, if the NFP comes out worse than it was forecast at the level of 231,000, the dollar can come under significant pressure as this indicator dynamics will indicate that the US Federal Reserve will not rush to raise interest rates. But such an outcome the market has already laid in prices.

Trading recommendations

The pair dollar/yen trade with increase. Today we consider the level of 116.50 testing. Next, we expect the new consolidation range development and the decline continuation for the local target completion at the level of 115.00.


Gold

Investors continued to re-evaluate its position within the metal, taking into account the US Federal Reserve statements. The gold prices have been increasing from the beginning of this year while the raw materials prices and stock indices have been falling. Some investors have begun to fear that the world growth slowdown can make the Fed delay raising interest rates in the United States that must occur for the first time since 2006.

Trading recommendations

The gold managed to expand the range for reduction. The market came out of the consolidation range. At present we do not exclude the possibility of the level of 1230 testing. Further, we expect a decline continuation within the trend downwards with the local target at the level of 1200.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №35 from 14/02/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The main pair found the support in statistics and effectively enjoys the moment as long as possible for its strengthening. The euro continues to grow that started earlier. Investors use statistical factor to achieve strong levels within the pair euro/dollar where it will be possible to begin building the next wave direction.

Eurozone countries have started to publish economic growth reports for the fourth quarter. France is not impressed: the GDP will rise by 0.1% q/q at the end of the year as expected. In annual terms a growth was only 0.2%. But the German statistics was very interesting and promising. The Germany's GDP gained 0.7% q/q at the end of the fourth quarter in 2014 with the growth forecast by 0.3%. In annual terms, the economy increased by 1.6% against the expected 1.0% growth.

Trading recommendations

The pair euro/dollar extended its consolidation range upwards. We believe the pair may restore its positions towards 1.1500. Next we expect a decline to the level of 1.1230. Then we consider the pair consolidation and another decrease to the level of 1.1100.


Pound

The UK do not plan to publish important news, the pound will remain under the previous information influence and can even grow up a little bit which is generally observed at the current trades. However, as it seems, "bullish" emotions have already become more reserved in anticipation of the coming weekend and the consolidation trade can resume, but in the higher ranges.

Trading recommendations

The pair pound and the US dollar have fulfilled the local growth target. The next step is the correctional growth development with the pair reduction to the level of 1.5200. Next in line is the fifth correctional growth with the pair increase towards 1.5430. If the market increases above 1.5430, it may cause a decline down the trend to the level of 1.4850 testing.


Yen

We have not got any news from Japan, the pair dollar/yen was traded with multidirectional fluctuations and will probably continue its lateral movement, guided by technical levels. However, a directed activity can occur amid the US stock market and the government debt market events.

Trading recommendations

The pair dollar/yen completed the decline wave. The next step is a correction. We consider its recovery to the level of 119.50. Then we expect again a decrease for the potential target of 116.50.


Gold

The trading range which lasted the whole previous session this week, ended with the dollar decrease. The US dollar was under pressure from all its main competitors and closed the trading day with losses along the entire market.

Trading recommendations

The gold is trying to form a correction to the level of 1240. Then again decline to the level of 1210. Then it will be new correction. Thus we will obtain the consolidation range with extension upwards and then downwards. Next we expect the center testing below and the reduction continuation down the trend. The main target is the level of 1115. The first matrix target is the level of 1190.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №36 from 21/02/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The Eurozone may present information that is able to influence the market and with the support for the euro, of course, if forecasts confirm the fact and the Greek problems resolution will not spoil the investors’ mood, inclining to risk aversion. The February preliminary assessment (PMI) in manufacturing sectors are expected with the improvement - the euro zone indicators as a whole can show 53.0 after 52.3 in services and 51.5 against 51.0 in the manufacturing sector. The Germany indicators are expected with the similar dynamics. The France indicators, although are expected with a growth, but in the area of recession below 50.0.

Trading recommendations

Today the pair euro/dollar is trading with a decrease. We expect the level of 1.1200 testing. Next, we expect the pair return to the level of 1.1380. Then we consider the new consolidation formation. We expect the level of 1.1000 testing with its breakthrough. As an alternative consider the correction to the level of 1.1650.


Pound

The UK news is expected with mixed results and probably will not cause the market activity increase. The January retail sales are projected with a decrease for the month, -0.8% m/m against the earlier + 0.4% m/m and with its growth for the year, + 5.5% m/m, after the last year + 4.3% y/y .

Trading recommendations

The pair pound and the US dollar broke through the growth channel. The next step is a correction to the level of 1.5200. The first reduction target is the level of 1.5300. Next we consider consolidation and the pair decline continuation.


Yen

The US dollar was traded almost without changes against the Japanese yen. The pair reached the maximum of 119.30 on the dollar sales from the Japanese importers part, producing commercial transactions calculations. However, in the rest the foreign exchange market was quiet as many Asian traders did not participate at the trades in connection with the New Year celebration according to the lunar calendar.

Trading recommendations

The pair dollar/yen is in the next consolidation. We expect the decline and the level of 118.20 breakthrough. Then again we expect a consolidation and a new decline to the level of 117.00.


Gold

The gold prices rose in Europe on Thursday after the traders got acquainted with the Fed and the US meeting minutes and came to the conclusion that the central bank is more likely inclined to loose monetary policy.

Trading recommendations

The gold continues the consolidation range formation around the level of 1210. We consider this structure as the reduction continuation figure within the trend downwards. The main target is the level of 1110 testing.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №37 from 28/02/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

During January inflation fell by 0.7% m/m (-0.1% y/y) in the US. If everybody got accustomed to the figures month reduction, their decrease has been revealed for 4.5 years the first time. We should realize the situation about the consumer price index. The February data will show whether a complete deflationary trend is formed and if it is still present, the Fed should respond to it.

Trading recommendations

The pair euro/dollar has fulfilled the reduction target. Today, the market is trading around the level of 1.1190. Further, we expect the consolidation range formation. We will consider the level of 1.1250 testing with its breakthrough upwards. We expect the pair decline to the level of 1.1100 with its breakthrough downwards.


Pound

The second assessment showed that the fourth quarter UK GDP volume has increased by 2.7% on the quarterly basis as in the previous quarter that was in line with the forecasts. In general, the British economic state does not cause particular concern as well as the national regulator attitude and its governor has repeatedly talked about the possibility that the next step would be the interest rates increase. Thus, even the slightest reason to doubt about the dollar strength will be sufficient for the pair growth resumption to the recent highs.

Trading recommendations

Practically, the pair pound and the US dollar formed the third growth wave and exposed impulse reduction to the correction. Today we consider the price recovery to the level of 1.5480 (as the minimum) and then again its decline to the level of 1.5280.


Yen

Official data showed that household spending fell last month by 0.3% in Japan while it was expected its growth by 0.4% after increase by 0.4%.

Another report showed that the Japan consumer prices rose to the annual rate by 2.4% in January in line with expectations while the CPI, excluding food products, rose by 2.2% last month that is lower than we expected increase by 2 3%.

Trading recommendations

The pair yen/dollar extended consolidation upwards and currently is approaching the level of 120.00. We consider this structure as the new consolidation range formation. Next on the agenda there is the pair decline for the triangle lower boundary testing.


Gold

Janet Yellen reassured investors for gold buying, saying that the easy monetary policy would be continued. As a result, the dollar fell slightly against other major world currencies. Therefore, two important factors will support the gold price: the Fed recent speech in the US Congress and the gold market recovery activity in China.

Trading recommendations

Today the gold offers the market a consolidation formation. We do not exclude the possibility of consolidation expansion upwards with an attempt for a correction development. Still main scenario is a decline continuation. The target is the level of 1175.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №38 from 07/03/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The Germany industrial production and the revised 4th quarter GDP will be soon published. If the reports come out at least with the slight forecasts excess, the euro develop correction, coupled with such factor as profit taking at the end of the week. Also the euro sharply fell after the US employment report publication. It came out better than expected.

Trading recommendations

The support is at the level of 1.0840. Its breakthrough will move the pair towards 1.0760 and then to the level of 1.0600. The resistance is at the level of 1.1000. Its breakthrough will ease the pair short-term negative outlook, moving the pair towards 1.1180 and then towards 1.1280-1.1380.


Pound

The Bank of England left the interest rate unchanged at the record low level of 0.50%, established in March 2009. The central bank also kept the asset purchases program, financed by the central bank reserves issuance in the amount of 375 billion pounds. The pair dynamics can be caused largely by external factors. The NFP indicator on 295 thousand publication was followed by the pair decrease.

Trading recommendations

The support is in the area 1.5000. The breakthrough will open the way to 1.4920. The resistance is at the level of 1.5160. Its breakthrough will ease the short-term negative outlook, moving it towards 1.5300 and then towards 1.5370 and 1.5450.


Yen

The pair dollar/yen is currently holding above 120.00. It gets support amid the expectations that the Fed still will raise rates in June, as expected. However, the pair further upward dynamics depend on the labor market positive release. Also the employment component dynamics with the ISM industrial and service sector indices which have increased, we can assume that the pair growth can continue.

Trading recommendations

The resistance is at the level of 120.80. Its breakthrough will move the pair at the level of 121.80. The support is at the level of 120.00. Its breakthrough will ease the short-term bullish outlook and will move the pair towards 119.60 and then towards 117.20.


Gold

The gold price broke down the psychologically important level of $ 1200 per ounce. The metal fell after NFP publication that said the US economy was able to create 295K new jobs in February. The solid growth rate will be a proof of the world largest economic growth which will keep supporting the dollar and lead to the pressure increase on the precious metal.

Trading recommendations

The nearest resistance is at the level of 1190. The support is near 1160. Its completion will enhance sentiment towards the precious metals sales.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №39 from 14/03/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.

The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The pair euro/dollar rose sharply to 1.0683 during this week. The US statistics caused negative impact on the dollar. Unexpectedly for us the retail sales significantly decreased in February.

The US retail sales index was 0.6% in February (forecast was 0.3%, the previous value was 0.8%). The US retail sales index, excluding cars, was -0.1% in February (the forecast was 0.5%, the previous value is revised from -0.9 to -1.1%).

The pair EUR/USD has not been able to reach the maximum of 1.0683 for a long time. The rate fell to 1.0483. The bears within the euro could decrease further.

Trading recommendations

The pair euro/dollar have formed the impulse growth. But its structure does not have the growth potential. At present we consider the possibility of the minimum update with the consolidation expansion downwards. Next, we will consider the possibility of the new impulse growth.


Pound

The pair GBP/USD increased to the level of 1.5026. The negative impact on the dollar was caused by the US statistics. Unexpectedly for us retail sales decreased significantly in February.

The British pound came under pressure after the Bank of England governor’s announcement that there was no need to rush with the interest rates increase. M. Carney started to make his speech after the US statistics release in 15 minutes. The pair GBP/USD fell from the high of 1.5026 to 1.4751 that is the new week minimum.

Trading recommendations

The pair has completed the reduction target. We expect the current minimum update and the new consolidation range formation. We anticipate the beginning of correction.


Yen

The pair dollar/yen will remain under pressure from the deteriorated attitude towards the US dollar after the US retail sales unexpected decrease in February. The US Treasury bond yields short-term decline and the Japanese exporters’ sales also put pressure on the pair. However, attitude towards the dollar has improved due to the lower than expected number of claims in the United States.

Trading recommendations

The pair dollar/ yen was unable to develop a third impulse downwards. This scenario shows a possibility of the new maximum update. Next we predict the consolidation range formation with a reversal pattern. Then we believe in the decline continuation.


Gold

The gold prices have been declining for nine consecutive sessions - it was the longest recession since January 1998. This dynamics was triggered by the rumors that the US Federal Reserve can soon start raising interest rates.

Trading recommendations

The gold continues to trade within a consolidation. We consider the decline continuation within the trend downwards to touch the level of 1110. Next we expect the correction beginning.


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