ATFX Market Updates 2019

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Aug 8

Personal opinions today:

U.S. President and federal reserve officials said interest rates could be cut, and the U.S. government eased some restrictions on imports of Chinese telecommunications equipment suppliers. The Dow future closed near yesterday's high, while Asian stocks followed. But the trade war between the United States and China and a slowing investment climate could still limit gains in global stocks.

Keep a close eye on Japan economic outlook today, the European central bank economic bulletin and U.S. jobless claims. The JPY and European currencies could fall if Japan economic outlook and the European central bank economic bulletin forecast a recession and deflation, which could ease monetary policy toward. In addition, U.S. jobless claims and wholesale sales data will test the U.S. economic outlook ahead of the release tomorrow of US producer price index. The U.S. data could influence expectations for U.S. consumer prices index forecast and the dollar trends.

[Important financial data and events]

07:50 Japan trade account June
10:00 China trade account July
13:00 Japan economic outlook for July
14:30 France BOF business confidence index for July
16:00 European central bank economic bulletin
20:30 U.S. initial jobless claims
20:30 Canada new home prices June
22:00 U.S. wholesale sales June

Today suggestion :

EURUSD
1.1235/1.1250 resistance
1.1185/1.1170 support
Europe's economy has yet to see a significant recovery, but the trade war between the United States and China is heating up, and European currencies have become a safe haven in the new situation. Despite the lack of evidence for growth in the European currency, but we should watching the ECB economic bulletin. Also, look at U.S. economic data today and tomorrow. If the US data is weak, European currencies are likely to see some uptrend. Now may watch, 1.1250 for important resistance.

GBPUSD
1.2180/1.2205 resistance
1.2125/1.2100 support
Britain facing a hard Brexit at the end of October is bearish for the pound. As the trade war between China and the United States heats up, the federal reserve is calling for a cut in interest rates, undermining the dollar and stabilizing pound. Technically, the pound is stuck at 1.22 against the dollar. If the U.S. economic data is stable and Britain has no deal with the risk of Brexit , the pound may not break through the 1.22 resistance. Preliminary estimates now suggest the pound has strengthened at 1.21, with the expectation that new news will spur a move in pound.

AUDUSD
0.6785/0.6800 resistance
0.6745/0.6730 support
Rising trade between China and the United States hurt China's economy and hurt the economies and exports of Australia and New Zealand, with the Australian and New Zealand dollars falling respectively. Yesterday the federal reserve bank of New Zealand suddenly announced cut interest 50 basis point, the NZD fell, indirectly affecting the Australian dollar. But RBNZ said they were now lowering rates, signaling no intention of cutting them again. If U.S. economic data is weak, and U.S. inflation data is weak tomorrow and next Tuesday, the fed may consider further rate cuts, which could bullish the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

USDJPY
106.30/106.50 resistance
105.75/105.55 support
The Dow, the Nikkei and the USDJPY are roughly in line. When the Dow and the Nikkei fell, the dollar falls against the yen. But it remains to be seen in Japan economic outlook today. A further easing of monetary policy by the bank of Japan and the federal reserve could bullish the yen. Technically, pay attention to 106.50 and 106.70 resistance. If the Dow and Nikkei rebound, the dollar could see resistance of 106.50 and 106.70 against the yen. Otherwise, it would go down to the 105.55 level. Note the dollar against the yen two times to try 105.55 support, looking forward to double bottom or triple bottom is not broken, may rebound.

USDCAD
1.3285/1.3315 resistance
1.3245/1.3215 support
U.S. President and federal reserve officials intended to cut interest rates and the U.S. government eased some restrictions on imports of Chinese telecommunications equipment suppliers, helping to spur demand for crude oil. Signs of a short-term resolution of the trade war between China and the United States could bullish U.S. crude prices. The price of crude oil rose, indirectly benefiting for Canadian dollars. Technically, the USDCAD will likely end up at 1.33 and move down at 1.3245 or below.

US crude oil futures
54.50/55.70 resistance
51.85/50.75 support
U.S. President and federal reserve officials intended to cut interest rates and the U.S. government eased some restrictions on imports of Chinese telecommunications equipment suppliers, increasing demand for crude oil. If oil futures break through $53.30, they could technically test the $55 level. Pay close attention to the trade war between China and the United States, and judge the trend based on good and bad news. Technically, the U.S. crude oil futures price has been adjusted to test the support of the low of $50.60 in early June, and if the rebound breaks through 53.30, it will look at 54.50 and 55.70.

XAUUSD
1505/1510 resistance
1486/1481 support
The U.S. President and federal reserve officials said interest rate cuts had triggered a global stock market rally, with gold rising and then falling. The us government's easing of some import restrictions on Chinese telecommunications equipment suppliers will help improve china-us trade relations. China says it plans to hold trade talks with the United States in September. The dow Jones industrial average, the nikkei and global stock markets rebounded, while gold was bearish. Technically, gold is estimated to have hit $1,500. Yesterday good market news, investor sentiment improved. A strong dow and nikkei would further depress gold prices.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26250/26520 resistance
25975/25860 support
U.S. President and federal reserve officials intends to cut interest rates, the U.S. government eased some restrictions on imports of Chinese telecommunications equipment suppliers, and China government in Beijing said its planned September trade talks with the U.S. would help improve U.S. trade relations, triggering a global stock market rally that lifted the Dow rebound at the end of market close last night The Dow could be up 26520 if the President doesn't want to spoil the talks and there are no negative comments.

BTCUSD:
12050 / 12300 resistance
10850 / 10600 support
As the trade war between China and US heats up, Dow and other major stocks fell, hedge fund inflows to other capital market, bearish US dollar and bullish bitcoin. However, the sentiment maybe change, bearish bitcoin and other crypto currencies. Recommend check out the trends of gold price and compares the bitcoin price.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

SAVE THE DATE NOW! If you are interested in participating our Seminar/ workshop (JB), Let's click the below link:https://www.facebook.com/pg/ATFXMalaysiaCN/events/

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Aug 9

Personal opinions today:

Today, US July PPI and next week US CPI announcement. These are the inflation data the market is looking at. The results will show US price and inflation levels, as well as the Fed reasonable interest rate. Investors should watch the July PPI monthly performance today. A stronger U.S. PPI monthly rate could lead to a stronger dollar, extending its trend until next week U.S. CPl results. If the U.S. data is good, it will be bearish for gold and the yen, and bullish the crude oil price.

In the afternoon, data from the European region was also worth watching for short-term volatility. Keep an eye on European markets today, Germany trade accounts and current accounts. For British pound, the UK trade account for June, the monthly rate of UK industrial and manufacturing output in June and the preliminary annual rate of UK GDP in the second quarter. The British data can make fluctuations in the pound, which is the most noteworthy of the European currencies.

[Important financial data and events]

09:30 RBA monetary policy statement
09:30 China CPI in July
13:45 Swiss unemployment rate for July
14:00 Germany trade account and current account
14:45 French industrial output in June
16:00 IEA releases monthly oil market report
16:30 UK trade account for June
16:30 UK industrial and manufacturing output in June
1630 UK GDP for the second quarter
20:30 US PPI in July

Today suggestion:

EURUSD
1.1215/1.1230 resistance
1.1185/1.1170 support
Yesterday, ECB economic report was likely to be bearish on the euro. Europe economy has yet to see much of a recovery, and the euro will be tested today with the release of the trade balance and current accounts for Germany. Switzerland July unemployment rate was also in focus ahead of the German data. Advice to focus on the trend of the Euro and the Swiss franc may have a temporary divergence. Also, look at U.S. economic data. If the U.S. data is weak, European currencies could see some upside. But short-term significant resistance remained at 1.1250 and significant support at 1.1170.

GBPUSD
1.2160/1.2185 resistance
1.2125/1.2100 support
The British prime minister mentions that the European Union will finally accept Britain new Brexit deal. But the European commission has said it will accept only the Brexit agreement agreed by the former British prime minister by the end of October. If the British prime minister insists on a new Brexit , the market estimates that after Brexit , the UK boundaries will be divided, which will affect the economy and negatively affect the pound. Technically, the pound is stuck at 1.22 against the dollar. If the U.S. economic data is stable and Britain has no way to deal with the risk of hard Brexit, the pound may not break through the 1.22 resistance. Britain's trade account for June, industrial and manufacturing output and the most important preliminary estimate of second-quarter GDP today. Preliminary estimates now suggest the pound is strengthening at 1.21, pending the data. Watch out for any weak data that could be seriously bearish for pound.

AUDUSD
0.6820/0.6840 resistance
0.6785/0.6765 support
The Reserve bank of Australia and the Reserve bank of New Zealand ended their interest rate decisions recently. The two central Banks mentions that after the rate cut, the interest rate fell to a historic low level, indicating that they have no intention of cutting interest rates again. Australia economic outlook, assuming the growth rate could reach 2.5 percent, the reserve bank of Australia said today, as low interest rates help boost growth and bullish the Australian dollar. If U.S. inflation data are weak today and next week, the Fed may consider further rate cuts, which could further bullish the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

USDJPY
106.30/106.50 resistance
105.75/105.55 support
Japan July economic outlook report showed the GDP slowed, raising expectations that the bank of Japan may ease monetary policy further, possibly bearish the yen. Technically, pay attention to 106.50 and 106.70 resistance. Currently, if the Dow and Nikkei rebound, the USDJPY could test the resistance of 106.50 and 106.70. Otherwise, it would go down to the 105.55 support. Note that the USDJPY test 105.55 support two times , looking forward to double bottom or triple bottom is not broken, may rebound.

USDCAD
1.3245/1.3275 resistance
1.3205/1.3175 support
The U.S. President and federal reserve officials said they were considering cutting interest rates as expectations of higher demand for oil, bullish the U.S. crude oil prices. Crude oil prices rose, indirectly lifting the Canadian dollar. As expected yesterday, the U.S. dollar fell below 1.3245 Canadian dollars. Technically, the USDCAD is likely to end its run at 1.33, with a move target testing support of 1.3205 or 1.3175. Its depend on US PPl growth and hope to bullish the crude oil prices.

US crude oil futures
53.30/53.80 resistance
52.15/51.55 support
The U.S. President and federal reserve officials have said they are considering cutting interest rates, increasing demand for crude oil. If crude oil futures break through $53.30, they could technically test the $55 level. Pay close attention to the trade war between China and the United States, and judge the trend based on good and bad news. Technically, U.S. crude oil futures have been adjusted to test support for a low of $50.60 in early June, with a rally above $53.30 and up at $54 or $55. It is recommended today to watch whether US PPl, if good increasing, it can bullish the crude oil prices.

XAUUSD
1505/1510 resistance
1494/1489 support
Gold rose above $1,490 as the U.S. President and federal reserve officials weighed interest rate cuts. Dow, Nikkei and global stock markets have rebounded, which is bearish for gold. Technically, gold is estimated to have hit $1,500. If the trade war between China and the United States improves, it could lift investor sentiment. A strong Dow and Nikkei could further depress gold prices. The market focus on the July PPI monthly performance. A stronger U.S. PPI monthly rate could lead to a rise in the dollar, which could be extended until U.S. CPl results are released next week, while gold prices could fell with adjustment.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26520/26785 resistance
25975/25860 support
The U.S. President and federal reserve officials said they were considering cutting interest rates, helping to lift the stock. The U.S. government is considering easing some restrictions on imports of Chinese telecommunications equipment suppliers. The Chinese government said the planned September trade talks with the United States would help improve bilateral trade relations, triggering a global stock market rally that lifted the dow above 26,000. The Dow could be up to 26520 if the President doesn't spoil the talks and there are no negative comments. At the moment, 26520 resistance is noteworthy, if the failure of the upper test, the Dow more likely to fall. Before the weekend, suggest to wait for adjustment, temporarily do not consider chasing more.

BTCUSD:
12050 / 12300 resistance
10850 / 10600 support
As the trade war between China and US heats up, Dow and other major stocks fell, hedge fund inflows to other capital market, bearish US dollar and bullish bitcoin. However, the sentiment maybe change, bearish bitcoin and other crypto currencies. Recommend check out the trends of gold price and compares the bitcoin price.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

SAVE THE DATE NOW! If you are interested in participating our Seminar/ workshop (JB), Let's click the below link: https://www.facebook.com/pg/ATFXMalaysiaCN/events/

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Aug 13

Personal opinions today:

The U.S. government reported a $120 billion deficit in July. Yesterday this analysis had suggested that a deeper deficit would be bearish for the dollar. In addition, ratings agencies cut their forecasts for the global economy, raising fears of a global slowdown. Meanwhile, the Dow future closed down nearly 400 points after U.S. President Donald Trump mentions the U.S. trade talks with China failed to resolve the dispute. Safe-haven capital flows into gold, which rebounded from a low of $1,489 to above $1,510. The same is the impact of safe-haven capital flows, the USDJPY was close to 105 important support. OPEC has verbally intervened in oil production and oil prices have risen. Unfortunately, worries about a slowdown in the global economy and high crude prices have not caught up, limiting the gains.

Eurozone Germany and the United States released July CPl and core CPl inflation data, respectively, are the focus of the market today. In addition, European currencies looked at July unemployment rate and jobless claims in U.K. today, while Germany and the Eurozone released their ZEW economic sentiment indicators for August. Early data on the Eurozone and the UK are bearish for the euro and the pound forecast. It is worth noting that if CPl is flat or higher in July than expected, the dollar will strengthen, which could lead to declines in European currencies and gold prices, but oil prices could maintain their recent gains. Oil prices could be boosted by a drop in U.S. API crude stocks tomorrow morning. Otherwise, the price will be reduced.

[Important financial data and events]

14:00 Germany July CPI final value
16:30 UK unemployment rate and jobless claims in July
17:00 Germany ZEW economic sentiment index for August
18:00 US NFIB small business confidence index for July
20:30 US CPI and Core CPI rate in July
Next day at 04:30 US API crude oil stocks change

Today suggestion:

EURUSD
1.1220/1.1235 resistance
1.1185/1.1170 support
Earlier in the Eurozone, Germany trade balance and current accounts fell, bearish the euro. Markets are watching Eurozone CPl data from Germany. A weak reading of 0.5% below market expectations would be a negative for the euro. With US CPl inflation expected to rise this evening, it is now expected to limit the euro's gains ahead of the release of us CPl data, with key short-term resistance at 1.1235 and key support at 1.1170.

GBPUSD
1.2085/1.2105 resistance
1.2035/1.2015 support
The U.K. prime minister has insisted on a deadline of the end of October to force the EU to accept a new Brexit deal. Investors are feeling the outlook for the UK is gloomy and bearish for the pound. The market remained on the sidelines after the UK's July unemployment rate and jobless claims figures were released today. A rise in unemployment rate and jobless claims would be bearish for pound. In addition, market expectations for a rise in US CPl inflation data are now expected to limit pound's rise ahead of the release of the US CPl data. Technically, if the pound breaks through the support of 1.2015, the pound may go down to 1.1970, and more likely to go down to adjust the 1.1945 wave of 150%. Watch for the UK unemployment rate and jobless claims figures in July.

AUDUSD
0.6775/0.6790 resistance
0.6745/0.6730 support
Trade friction between China and the United States is heating up, global economic growth forecast is slowing down, which is not conducive to Australia's main income and resources export, hitting the Australian economy and the Australian dollar. The U.S. government's budget deficit deepened in July, raising speculation that the federal reserve might consider cutting interest rates, bullish the Australian and New Zealand dollars in the short term probably. There is no sign that the Fed is planning to cut interest rates, with US CPl inflation data key today. A lower-than-expected U.S. CPl of 0.3 percent could bullish the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

USDJPY
105.80/106.05 resistance
105.05/104.80 support
As China and US trade friction heats up and Britain faces the risk of hard Brexit, the global economic growth forecast slows, the Dow declines and some safe-haven funds flow into the yen. But in the past the bank of Japan has said the equilibrium price of the dollar against the yen is 105. If the dollar falls below 105, the central bank is likely to intervene either verbally or in action. It is worth being careful not to intervene to push the dollar back up to 106. It is worth noting that the market is expecting an increase in US CPl inflation data and is currently expected to limit the rise in the yen ahead of the release of the US CPl data. Technically, looking at the Dow and Nikkei, the dollar could hit 106.00 against the yen if the Dow or Nikkei rebounds.

USDCAD
1.3245/1.3275 resistance
1.3205/1.3175 support
The U.S. federal reserve may consider cutting interest rates if the deficit deepens following the release of the government's July budget, which could boost the Canadian dollar. Market expectations for a rise in U.S. CPl inflation data are now expected to limit the rise in the Canadian dollar ahead of U.S. CPl data and crude oil inventory results. Technically, the USDCAD will test the 1.33 trend is over and the adjustment target is testing the support range of 1.3205 or 1.3175. If the USDCAD stays below 1.3245, it can still dip lower. The US dollar is recommended against the Canadian dollar more direct reference to crude oil price trend.

US crude oil futures
55.20/55.70 resistance
53.90/53.30 support
The U.S. federal reserve may consider cutting interest rates to boost oil prices if the deficit deepens following the release of the government's July budget. Technically, crude oil futures are expected to test the $55 level after breaking through $53.30. Pay close attention to the trade war between China and the United States, and judge the trend based on good and bad news. In addition, US API crude oil inventory is worth watching. A increase in crude stocks would be bearish for crude prices. Currently, we are focusing on 55.20 and 55.70, two important resistance.

XAUUSD
1522/1525 resistance
1508/1506 support
Argentina is politically unstable and its currency has tumbled by 30%. Tensions between China and the United States, a slowing global economic outlook, a 400 point drop in the Dow, and gold jump up above $1,510, testing resistance of 1,522 or 1,525. If the trade war between China and the United States improves, it could lift investor sentiment. In addition, the market is watching the U.S. CPl results today, if the data beat expectations, gold prices may adjust. The strong performance of the Dow and Nikkei will likely be negative for gold prices as well. But keep an eye on the Dow and global stocks, and gold has a chance to rise if it continues to fall.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26060/26250 resistance
25860/25640 support
The U.S. government's budget deficit widened in July, Argentina's politics crisis and its currency depreciate 30 percent in one day. The Dow fell 400 points last night after negative comments from the US President, tensions between China and the US, possible fail to progress trade talks in September and a slowing outlook for global economic growth. The market is watching the U.S. CPl results today, which could give the Dow a lift if the data beat expectations. However, if China and US relations do not improve, it will affect the global economic slowdown. In addition, the Fed's failure to cut rates or talk of a rate cut will limit the Dow's gains. Technically, the Dow broke through 25860, possibly down to 25640 support.

BTCUSD:
12050 / 12300 resistance
10850 / 10600 support
As the trade war between China and US heats up, Dow and other major stocks fell, hedge fund inflows to other capital market, bearish US dollar and bullish bitcoin. However, the sentiment maybe change, bearish bitcoin and other crypto currencies. Recommend check out the trends of gold price and compares the bitcoin price.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

SAVE THE DATE NOW! If you are interested in participating our Seminar/ workshop (JB), Let's click the below link: https://www.facebook.com/pg/ATFXMalaysiaCN/events/

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Aug 14

Personal opinions today:

Last night, after facing a $120 billion government budget deficit in July, the US President abruptly extended additional tariffs on some Chinese imports from September 1 to December. It involves consumer goods, consumer electronics and personal health products. And the U.S. trade department called the Chinese trade minister to confirm the trade talks scheduled for September. In addition, U.S. CPl rose 0.3 percent in July, meeting market expectations, boosting investment sentiment. After the good news, Dow up more than 500 points and global stocks followed. Hedging money flowed out of gold and the yen. Gold price plunged as much as $50 to as low as $1,480. The stock market rebounded, with the USDJPY trading at higher 106.95 last night. Crude oil prices rose above $55, hitting a high of $57.4, as U.S. inflation rose and U.S. - China relations improved.

Today's market focus, Germany Q2 GDP annualized figures, UK July CPI and retail price index monthly rate, the Eurozone Q2 GDP annualized rate and employment rate. The monthly rate of the US import price index for July was also noteworthy today. The data could affect U.S. retail sales for July tomorrow. An increase in the U.S. import price index would bullish the Dow and the dollar. But expect the relationship, which has just begun to improve, to continue to improve if the US President don’t makes any damaging comment.

[Important financial data and events]

10:00 China total retail sales, fixed asset investment
14:00 German GDP Q2
14:45 France CPI in July
16:30 UK CPI and Retail price for July
17:00 Eurozone Industrial Output for June
17:00 Eurozone GDP Q2
17:00 Eurozone employment rate Q2
20:30 US import price index in July
22:30 EIA crude oil inventories change

Today suggestion :

EURUSD
1.1215/1.1235 resistance
1.1170/1.1150 support
Germany CPl was flat yesterday, easing deflationary pressures in the Eurozone. But US CPl inflation data were in line with growth expectations. As estimated yesterday, before the release of the U.S. CPl data, the Euro's gains were capped and the Euro failed to break through the resistance between 1.1120 and 1.1235 to move to an important support level of 1.1170 in the light of market expectations of lower German and Eurozone GDP Q2. Key Q2 GDP figures for Germany and the Eurozone were released today. Basically, German Q2 GDP data directly reflect the Eurozone Q2 GDP results, which will be released later. If German Q2 GDP data beat expectations at 2 p.m., it will likely follow Eurozone Q2 GDP expectations, with the Euro likely to hit the resistance range of 1.1215 to 1.1235.

GBPUSD
1.2085/1.2105 resistance
1.2035/1.2015 support
The British prime minister has insisted on a deadline of the end of October to force the EU to accept a new Brexit deal. Investors are feeling the outlook for the UK is gloomy and bearish for the pound. The expected fall in July CPI and retail price index data is expected to weigh against the pound. Both results, if better than expected, could bullish pound. Because the data can be used to forecast and trend UK retail sales for tomorrow. Today, pound can dip its low first. Technically, if the pound breaks through the support of 1.2015, the pound may go down to 1.1970, and more likely to go down to adjust the 1.1945 wave of 150%. It deserves attention. The current technical resistance can be referred to the resistance between 1.2085 and 1.2105.

AUDUSD
0.6810/0.6825 resistance
0.6785/0.6770 support
Trade friction between China and the US cooled, bullish the Australian dollar, while the New Zealand dollar followed the Australian dollar higher. An improved investment climate will bullish the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Technically, the Australian dollar broke through the resistance of 0.6790 usd, initially testing the resistance range of 0.6810 to 0.6825. If data and the trade tensions cool down further well, hope to explore 0.6870 important resistance. If the Australian dollar rises, it is expected NZD follow.

USDJPY
106.70/106.95 resistance
106.05/105.80 support
Trade friction between China and the United States cooled, global economic growth needs to improve, the Dow rebounded 500 points, some safe-haven funds out from the yen. The USDJPY bounced back to 106.95 from 105. For the time being the yen has evaded the 105 threshold for central bank intervention, but it is still worth being cautious and avoiding volatility. The dollar is now trading at 106 against the yen. It's worth watching Eurozone GDP figures today. Simply put, the performance of the Dow and Nikkei will affected the USDJPY .

USDCAD
1.3245/1.3275 resistance
1.3205/1.3175 support
US CPl inflation data rose in line with expectations. Estimates yesterday limited the rise in the Canadian dollar ahead of U.S. CPl data and crude oil inventory results. U.S. crude oil stocks fell, crude oil prices rose, bullish the Canadian dollar. Trade relations between the U.S. and China are expected to improve, further pushing up crude oil prices and the Canadian dollar. Technically, the USDCAD is expected to continue the adjustment target 1.3175 support range. If the USDCAD stays below 1.3245, it can still lower. The CAD more direct reference to crude oil price trend.

US crude oil futures
57.40/57.90 resistance
55.90/55.20 support
According to the trade war news between China and the United States, due to the extra tariffs that the US government has postponed to do in September, the US and China officials agreed to hold talks as usual in September. In addition, the US API crude oil stocks decreased, bullish crude oil prices. Yesterday, said concern about 55.20 and 55.70 resistance, break through two important resistance, now expected to explore the 57.90 resistance. But it's important to note that any comments by the U.S. President and U.S. trade officials during the evening could cause oil prices to fluctuate.

XAUUSD
1512/1515 resistance
1488/1486 support
U.S. - China relations improve, Dow rebound, gold price down. Current estimates suggest gold could face resistance above $1,510 if trade relations between the U.S. and China continue to improve. Technically, the Dow and Nikkei are recommended, and if the rally continues, it could be bearish for gold price. Of course, watching German and Eurozone GDP underperform could boost gold prices. In addition, Argentina is politically unstable and its currency has plummeted. If found global stock markets fell could bullish gold prices.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26510/26650 resistance
25860/25640 support
China and US have agreed to continue negotiations in September. The outlook for global economic growth should be improved. The Dow rebounded 500 points last night. Comments that the fed might consider a rate cut would add to the Dow's gains if U.S. - China relations continue to improve. Technically, the Dow broke through 25860, possibly down to adjust the wave's 25640 support. If the relationship between China and the United States is keeping good and there is no political instability in Argentina and the currency drops sharply, the Dow could see resistance of 26510 to 26650.

BTCUSD:
10850 / 11300 resistance
10250 / 9750 support
As the trade war between China and US cool down , Dow and other major stocks rebounded, hedge fund outflows from hedging market, bullish US dollar and bearish bitcoin. Recently here we mentioned, the sentiment maybe change, bearish bitcoin and other crypto currencies. Recommend check out the trends of gold price and the bitcoin price with same direction.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

SAVE THE DATE NOW! If you are interested in participating our Seminar/ workshop (JB), Let's click the below link: https://www.facebook.com/pg/ATFXMalaysiaCN/events/

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

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[Kelly Yeung]

Alibaba (BABA) Reports Earnings: in Dismal International Trade Environment

Alibaba (BABA) will release its earnings report before the market open on Thursday, Aug. 15. BABA’s stock closed yesterday at $162.22. Analysts expect Alibaba to earn $1.49 - $1.50 per share on revenue of $16.09 - $15.9 billion. This compares to the year ago quarter when earnings came to $1.16 per share on revenue of $11.66 billion. The stock price performance has disappointed investors for the last 12 months as it is over 8% lower, while the S&P 500 has gained over 4% the same period.

BABA surpassed consensus expectations in the 1Q. Revenues rose 51% to $13.9 billion from the same quarter in 2018. Earnings per share was 1.25 and topped the consensus of 0.96. Income from operations was RMB 8,765 million (US$1,306 million), a decrease of 5% (year over year) mainly due to US$250 million settlement of a U.S. federal class-action lawsuit. Adjusted EBITDA increased 29% (year-over-year) to RMB 25,166 million. Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB 25,830 million (US$3,849 million), and net income was RMB 23,379 million.

Annual active consumers on Chinese retail marketplaces reached 654 million, an increase of 18 million from the 12-month period ended December 31, 2018. Mobile MAUs on China retail marketplaces reached 721 million in March 2019, an increase of 22 million over December 2018.


A Tough Quarter for International Trade
The new round of US tariffs on Chinese products and Yuan devaluation present additional risks to BABA, amid an escalation in US – China trade tensions. BABA is feeling the trade war heat but management is taking correct steps to eliminate the risks. The Chinese e-commerce giant has rolled out various products and businesses aimed to eliminate the trade war impact on its bottom line.


BABA Follows AMZN Diversification Path
Alibaba has its hand in a number of other businesses, such as logistics company Cainiao, it is part-owner of Ant Financial, a financial institution in China and BABA’s media includes companies like Alibaba Pictures, Youku, Alibaba Music, Alisports.com and Daimai.

BABA’s diversification efforts currently lose money; on the other hand Amazon’s, AWS unit generates most of AMZN’s income. BABA’s Cloud computing revenue grew 76% year-over-year to RMB7,726 million (US$1,151 million) during the March 2019 quarter, primarily driven by an increase in average spending per customer. BABA’s cloud computing segment has an operating loss of RMB 164 million in the 1Q 2019. BABA’s entertainment unit lost RMB 2.82 billion in the first quarter. The profitability of the e-commerce unit (RMB 27.5 billion in quarterly operating earnings) allows Alibaba to explore different options within diversification.


BABA Valuation is Attractive
BABA stock currently trades with a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 33.66, the company’s Enterprise Value/EBITDA is 28.70, compare this to Amazon’s current valuation (74.99 times earnings, EV/EBITDA of 27.92). This makes Alibaba cheap on a P/E basis, but fairly valued on an EV/EBITDA basis.

A growing number of competitors are an emerging threat for the e-commerce company. Long-term, this could reduce the company’s market share. Chinese rival JD.com trades at 84.00 times earnings, and has an EV/EBITDA ratio of 64.07. JD.com (JD) is running fast. JD’s platform is a distant second to Alibaba, but the company has plenty of capital to use. With partners such as Alphabet, Tencent and Walmart, JD.com is growing into a serious threat to Alibaba. Tencent Holdings is trading at the most attractive P/E ratio and EV/EBITDA.


BABA Technical Analysis is Bearish to Neutral
On the technical side the picture is slightly bearish as the stock is trading below all the major daily moving averages. The short-term momentum is turning positive as the stock rebounds from recent lows at $151. The price could find support from the trendline at $154.44 in the daily chart, while extra bids will emerge at $151 the low from August 5th. The low at $147 from May 31st will provide a strong support zone. If the price fails to hold above this level the price might reach its 2019 low of $130. On the upside immediate resistance for BABA stands at $164.93 the 200-day moving average, while more offers will emerge at $172 and the 100-day moving average.

Earnings Will Make Things Clear
Alibaba releases earnings next Thursday before the market opening. With this in mind, it may be best for investors and traders to wait and evaluate the earnings. It is tough to predict the outcome of the Sino - U.S trade war and its implications on BABA’s figures. Alibaba’s growth in China continues to be the major catalyst for the stock performance. With the upcoming earnings report, investors can better assess the long-term potential of BABA stock. Keep in mind that BABA is a technology growth play, as the company is heavily focused more on expansion than bottom line at this point. There are high expectations and prospects for the company, given its expansion on industry-changing technology projects, such as cloud and blockchain.

On the quarterly report Alibaba must give investors a reason to believe in the stock which has fallen about 8% over the past year, compared to a 4% rise in the S&P 500 index. Alibaba is here to stay and dominate the e-commerce and cloud market further and remain a strong leader in China and worldwide for the foreseeable future.



Written by Nikolas Papas, Market Strategist, InvestingCube.com and ATFX

Nikolas Papas has been in the finance industry for over fifteen years in roles spanning across. Europe and USA and has acquired in-depth knowledge and experience within many aspects of the financial markets. Nikolas has worked for some of Europe's leading brokers, as an equity Analyses, and a trader managing accounts for both private and corporate investors. He enjoys both the fundamental and technical aspects of trading and focuses on stock markets and all FX majors. Currently, Nikolas provides analysis and comments on online financial publications. He studied and completed a degree in Economics (BSc), and Finance (MSc).

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[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Aug 15

Personal opinions today:

Today, the focus of the U.K. July retail sales monthly rate, market expectations down, the pound has been partially down reaction yesterday. If the data are worse than market expectation, the pound could test further lows. For global financial markets, U.S. weekly jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for August, the New York Fed manufacturing index for August, retail sales and industrial output for July. These data released today could be very sensitive. Yesterday, the US stock market plunged 800 points, as the market reaction to the US economy into a global recession, US Treasury yields upside down, short-term Treasury yields lower than long-term Treasury yields. The situation happened six months ago, you can learn from it. All of this comes as the economy is expected to shrink in the next 6 to 12 months. After the US - China trade heated up, most of the data released today showed worse figures than expected in US, the market worries. If that happens, global stocks will fall, followed by crude oil prices and the dollar drop. Money flowed into safe-haven assets such as gold, the yen and industrial metals. Of course, the dollar fell, and European currencies may eventually recover from the market rally.

The dollar has fallen after a poor data and a poor data for important using to forecast economic data tomorrow. If all the data show weakness, the US President could make another speech. For example, cut interest rates or stop paying requisitioning tariffs on goods imported from China in September. If the effective boost to the stock market, long - term Treasury yields back to the right levels, the dollar rebounded, gold and yen fell, please note.

[Important financial data and events]

(Seoul stock exchange and Italy stock exchange are closed)

09:30 Australian unemployment rate in July
09:30 China housing sales prices
16:30 UK retail sales July
20:30 US Initial jobless claims
20:30 Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for August
20:30 The New York Fed manufacturing index for August
20:30 US Retail sales in July
21:15 US Industrial output for July
22:00 US Business inventory rate for June
22:00 US NAHB housing market index for August
22:30 US EIA natural gas inventories

Today suggestion :

EURUSD
1.1175/1.1205 resistance
1.1135/1.1105 support
The U.S. CPl data was in line with market growth, limiting the euro's gains. The euro moved below its key support level of 1.1170 amid expectations of lower Q2 GDP in Germany and the Eurozone. While German and Eurozone GDP was flat in the Q2, the euro fell against the dollar, once breaking 50 percent of the recent correction, supported by 1.1135, as industrial output fell sharply. If U.S. economic data weak today, the dollar's decline, may boost the euro, it is worth noting the U.S. data performance. Estimates in anticipation of weak U.S. economic data, short-term stability in the euro. One of the keys to the final decision on the euro is the performance of the US data today. In addition, the Eurozone trade balance, issues tomorrow, is still likely to limit the rise, noting resistance to 1.1175 and 1.1205.

GBPUSD
1.2085/1.2105 resistance
1.2035/1.2015 support
Expectations of monthly and annual falls in UK retail sales in July weighed against the pound, which fell last night. The question is whether today's data is weaker than market expectations, giving the pound an excuse to dip lower. If the UK data is in line with market expectations, U.S. economic data will be expected to be weak today and the dollar will be expected to be stable against sterling's decline, which could lead to gains. Technically, if the pound breaks through the support of 1.2015, the pound may go down to 1.1970, and more likely to go down to adjust the 1.1945 wave. In the short term, the pound is likely to rebound as doubts about the us recession offset news of Brexit. The current technical resistance can be referred to the resistance between 1.2085 and 1.2105.

AUDUSD
0.6795/0.6815 resistance
0.6755/0.6735 support
Trade friction between the us and China has cooled, although it has boosted the Australian dollar, while the New Zealand dollar has risen along with the Australian dollar. However, the U.S. economy to global economic growth recession, caused the US Treasury yields upside down. China's industrial production fell, affecting China Australia trade growth forecast fell, the Australian and New Zealand dollars fell. Fortunately, the RBA cut interest rates over the past two months, prompting unemployment rate to flatline in July and a big increase in employment, stabilizing the Australian dollar. Today, the Australian dollar trend, one of the key is the U.S. data performance. Weaker U.S. data than expected could bullish the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Technically, the Australian dollar maintains a resistance of 0.6795 against the U.S. dollar, which could test the 0.6815 resistance range.

USDJPY
106.05/106.65 resistance
105.55/105.05 support
Today US release of a number of important data, the market expected a recession, the U.S. Treasury yields caused by the phenomenon of inversion, the Dow and the market after a larger fall, the dollar and the yen again returned to 105 level rebound. Be worth watching, today a lot of US major data. Simply, the performance wi lead the Dow and Nikkei also USDJPY. If most U.S. economic data were flat or flat today, stocks would rebound, the dollar would rise against the yen and fall against the yen. So the dollar is expected to trade more strongly against the yen today.

USDCAD
1.3320/1.3335 resistance
1.3245/1.3230 support
U.S. crude stocks fell yesterday, bearish the Canadian dollar. The market also speculated that the U.S. and global economic recession is heating up, U.S. Treasury yields are upside down and crude oil prices are falling. That the Canadian dollar tumbling to a high of 1.33. Yesterday, said if the USDCAD remains below 1.3245, the trend can still test low. The dollar is recommended against the Canadian dollar more direct reference to crude oil price trend. The main focus of today's major U.S. data performance and later on the U.S. President and the U.S. trade officials to make a speak. If the data is in line with expectations and growth, or if the President and officials show interest rate cuts, that could boost the Canadian dollar.

US crude oil futures
55.65/56.55 resistance
54.50/53.65 support
The news about the trade war is due to the crude oil price news, because the US government has postponed some extra tariffs to be paid in September and the two sides have agreed to hold talks as usual in September. It's just that U.S. API inventories have increased, limiting the price of crude. But yesterday the market prepared ahead of US economic data forecast reaction, US Treasury yields upside down, market concerns about the global economic slowdown heating up. Crude oil lost $55.20 support. We are waiting to see whether U.S. economic data will deteriorate and whether U.S. bond yields will stabilize. And the evening's focus on the U.S. President and U.S. trade officials could cause crude oil prices to fluctuate. A signal from the federal reserve that it will consider a rate cut next month could help buoy oil prices.

XAUUSD
1525/1528 resistance
1510/1507 support
U.S. Treasury yields fell and stocks tumbled in anticipation of weak U.S. data today, providing another excuse to push gold prices higher. Gold prices, which are technically based on the performance of the Dow and Nikkei, are likely to be bearish if the rally continues. If US economic data remains strong, improving US treasury yields upside down, the Dow rebounding strongly, gold prices may adjust strong as well, even below $1500.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
25855/26060 resistance
25395/25140 support
Markets are expecting weak U.S. economic data and a slower outlook for global growth today. US treasury yields are upside down again, with the Dow down over 500 points last night. Of course, if U.S. data isn't as weak as market expectations today, or if the federal reserve says it will cut rates next month. It is more likely that the U.S. faces a recession and that the President's comments on improving relations with China will likely lift the Dow. Technically, the Dow broke through 25860, down to adjust the wave of 25640 support, as low as 25395 yesterday. The Dow could get a bullish today if U.S. economic data isn't as weak as market expectations, U.S. - China relations well, or the federal reserve considers cutting interest rates.

BTCUSD:
10250 / 10500 resistance
9750 / 9550 support
As the trade war between China and US cool down. Decreasing the crypto currencies demands. However, markets are expecting weak U.S. economic data and a slower outlook for global growth today. US treasury yields are upside down again, Fed may cut interest rates again. It probably a excuse to purchase crypto currencies for against any risks. Recently here we mentioned, the sentiment maybe change, bearish bitcoin and other crypto currencies. Also, here recommend check out the trends of gold price and the bitcoin price with same direction.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

SAVE THE DATE NOW! If you are interested in participating our Seminar/ workshop (JB), Let's click the below link: https://www.facebook.com/pg/ATFXMalaysiaCN/events/

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.