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ATFX Market Updates 2019

Discussion in 'Company Articles' started by Kelly Yeung, Jan 1, 2019.

  1. Kelly Yeung

    Kelly Yeung ATFX.com Representative

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    ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
    ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 September 13


    Personal opinions today:

    The U.S. government has delayed for two weeks raising tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports. The US President is reported to be interested in further extending tariffs on Chinese goods ahead of high-level talks between China and the US in October. The investment sentiment continues to improve, and Dow futures closed high, capital funds outflows from gold and silver and the yen it is all fell. The trade war between China and the United States has cooled bullish Australian and New Zealand dollars.

    Yesterday the biggest news led the market sentiment, the European central bank interest rate decision. The Euro was up and down by more than 100 pips last night after the ECB interest rate decision. The number of U.S. jobless claims and the U.S. CPI after the August were only in line with market expectations. The result was still lower than the previous value, which will affect the strong performance of the dollar. But global stock markets rose, and gold prices retreated from their highs.

    Eurozone trade accounts dominated Today's European trading session for July., U.S. trading hours focused on August retail sales and September Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value. Eurozone trade account expected lower previous figure. It could limit Euro gains ahead of the release. Expectations for U.S. retail sales fell to 0.2% in August from 0.7% the past month, and the dollar is likely to weaken until the data are released. After the results, the impact of the dollar against other currencies and gold prices, it is believed that the effects of crude oil futures prices.

    [Important financial data and events]
    Note: * is the degree of importance


    17:00 Eurozone Trade accounts for July **
    20:30 US retail sales for August ***
    22:00 Michigan consumer confidence index for September
    23:00 ECB President Draghi, attend Eurogroup meeting


    Today suggestion:

    Eurodollar
    1.1080/1.1110 resistance
    1.1040/1.1025 support
    After the European central bank (ECB) meeting, the central bank introduced policy easing and cut interest rates in line with market expectations. But the rate cut was only 0.1%, with the new round Quantitative Easing(QE)pending to November. The market believes that the rate cut is too low; the plan for QE did not take effect in time, the economic recovery extended. The Euro fell after breaking above its 20-day average after the ECB meeting, falling to 1.0925 support. The Euro rebounded after U.S. inflation data for August came in just 0.1% in line with expectations. The dollar weakened, and the Euro rallied on hopes today that weak U.S. retail sales could a chance of a Fed rate cut next week. At present, the technical trend, the daily chart of Euro breaks the 20-day moving average, supported by 1.1040 and 1.1025, and the rebound wave of 38.2% and 50% is 1.1110 and 1.1145 respectively. Short-term Euro on 1.1080 and 1.1110 resistance. Depending on U.S. retail sales and Michigan consumer confidence index, the dollar's performance and the Euro's performance were affected.

    Pound against dollar
    1.2365/1.2380 resistance
    1.2295/1.2280 support
    No UK data today, Eurozone trade accounts during European trading hours, indirectly affecting pound. US retail sales and the Michigan consumer confidence index also indirectly affected the pound. Britain is waiting to see if a better deal for Brexit, before the deadline on October 31, with the pound likely limiting the 1.2380 resistance. Technically, please pay attention to 1.2400 significant resistance and 1.2280 crucial support. If the pound breaks 1.2280 support, the trend may fall further.

    Australian dollar to US dollar
    0.6885/0.6905 resistance
    0.6845/0.6830 support
    The U.S. government extended tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports, boosting the Australian dollar on news that the U.S. President is considering other options in hopes of making progress in October trade talks with China. The market watched U.S. August retail sales data and the performance of the dollar today. If the US data is in line with expectations or better than expected, it could support the U.S. dollar's rise and bearish the Australian dollar. The current technical level continues to pay attention to resistance levels 0.6885 and 0.6905. Support can be found at 0.6845 or 0.6830 for strong U.S. data. It is believe that the New Zealand dollar will continue to follow the trend and pace of the Australian dollar.

    Dollar to yen
    108.55/108.70 resistance
    108.05/107.85 support
    The U.S. President brought good news, easing sanctions on Iran and easing the trade war between China and the United States bullish the Dow and Nikkei futures move higher, while the dollar followed the yen. U.S. retail sales for August are expected to be weak today, making a correction more likely despite the Dow's gains. If the data estimate is lower than the previous value, the result may be lower than the previous value and expectation, Dow and Nikkei futures may fall and believe to lead the dollar to fall against the yen. Today USDJPY refers to 108.55 resistance and 107.85 support.

    US dollar to Canadian dollar
    1.3225/1.3245 resistance
    1.3170/1.3150 support
    New home prices fell in Canada and crude oil futures continued to fall, weighing against the Canadian dollar. U.S. retail sales are expected to be weak today as the trade war between the United States and China cools and crude oil futures are expected to rise, it is believe that the Canadian dollar gain.

    US crude oil futures
    55.70/56.15 resistance
    54.30/53.95 support
    Crude oil prices were weak after the US President said easing sanctions on Iran could boost supplies. But signs that the trade war between China and the us is cooling could boost oil prices. Technically, the subordinate is expected to support the crude oil futures price of 54.30 or 53.95, with resistance of 55.70 or 56.15.

    Gold
    1506/1509 resistance
    1493/1490 support
    Gold prices rebounded from low levels yesterday after the US August CPl and European central bank interest rate hikes. Today, focus on the U.S. retail sales data could affect Dow futures. If Dow futures rise, gold prices will focus on $1493 and $1490 support in the short term. In contrast, Dow futures fell, with gold likely to test resistance at $1,506 and $1,509. If it breaks the $1,509 resistance, it could move further up to $1,516 or above.

    U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
    27360/27520 resistance
    27075/26860 support
    The easing of trade war between China and the United States, improved investment sentiment, the success of the British parliament to prevent brexit and avoid another re-election, the United States eased sanctions on Iran, led the Dow futures upward trend continued. The market is waiting for U.S. August retail sales data today, watching for the latest comments from the US President and the federal reserve to lift the investment sentiment, and then watching for the Fed's monetary policy next week. Dow futures are expected to have a chance to limit their gains, and if Dow futures break 27,075 support, it will have a chance to dip below recommendation 26,860 support.

    BTCUSD:
    10550 /10950 resistance
    10150 / 9850 support
    The market expected the FOMC may hold monetary policy decision in September, it could hold the interest rate, the bitcoin price fell. In coming, we have looking at the Dow future. If Dow future fell, the bitcoin price and crypto currencies would upward. Now, the market is looking at the first support US$9850 again. It is believe that 10550 and 10950 as the reference resistance.

    Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

    Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
    Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

    Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
     
  2. Kelly Yeung

    Kelly Yeung ATFX.com Representative

    Joined:
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    [​IMG]

    For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


    Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

    ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:
    • AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
    • ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
    • AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
    • AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
    • AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.
     
  3. Kelly Yeung

    Kelly Yeung ATFX.com Representative

    Joined:
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    ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
    ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 September 16


    Personal opinions today:

    Four major Central Banks, the Fed, Bank of Japan, Central Bank of Switzerland and the Bank of England, announced interest rates on Thursday. The dollar index fell from a high of 99 as markets focused on the Fed. That's because the US CME rate Futures market puts the odds of a 25 basis point cut at 92%, up from a week ago. The dollar is still expected to move lower before the Fed's announcement. If the technical correction continues, the dollar index has a chance to look down at 97.35 support before the Fed's policy meeting or when the results are released. The Bank of Japan and the Bank of England intend to step up QE monetary policy and expect the yen to gain only a limited amount when the dollar falls. But there are downside risks To the British pound and the Euro.

    Gold and silver prices are expected to rise as major central Banks could cut interest rates. And Dow futures (US30) and global stocks are generally expected to rise, cause by low-interest rates expect. Besides, an attack on Saudi Arabia's oil supply system The price of oil futures has risen. The US President then said he would supply strategic crude. Oil prices fell after Saudi oil suppliers said they expected regular supplies to resume in a week. If crude oil futures prices keep Rising, they could be bullish on the Dow, but maybe not like this. The Dow probably limited 27345.

    [Important financial data and events]
    Note: * is the degree of importance


    Japan's Tokyo stock exchange is closed
    06:45 New Zealand service sector index for August *
    16:00 Italy CPI for August **
    19:15 ECB Chief economist speaking **
    20:30 US New York manufacturing index for September ***
    21:00 Canada Existing home sales in August **
    22:00 Canada National economic confidence index **


    Today suggestion:

    Eurodollar
    1.1080/1.1110 resistance
    1.1040/1.1025 support
    After the European central bank meeting, the market thought the rate cut was too low, the quantitative easing plan did not take effect in time, and the economic recovery timetable was pushed back. The euro broke resistance to its 20-day average, with losses Current technical expectations, the Euro with 20 and 10 days average 1.1052 and 1.1040 as support, if 1.1110 resistance can not break, the US September New York fed manufacturing index, better than market expectations, and expect US industrial output to rise tomorrow, the dollar performance is strong, the Euro is affected and have a chance go down.

    Pound against dollar
    1.2505/1.2525 resistance
    1.2420/1.2385 support
    The British prime minister has made it clear that a better deal can be found before the October 31 deadline for Britain to leave the European Union, with the Northern Ireland border being the critical issue. Resolving the issue by agreeing to a nonlinear could bullish British pound This week, the focus is on the interest rate meetings of the federal reserve and the Bank of England. The former market has already priced in the pound as high as 1.2500. If markets fear that the Bank of England will follow the ECB and The federal reserve in cutting interest rates, the pound will bear the downside risk. Technically, please note that 1.2500 has become one of the significant resistance. If the resistance to 1.2505 or 1.2525 fails to break, keep an eye on the opportunity to test below 1.2420 and 1.2385 before the Fed and Bank of England meeting.

    Australian dollar to US dollar
    0.6885/0.6905 resistance
    0.6845/0.6830 support
    The broad correction on Monday coincided with a rise in US retail sales and Michigan consumer confidence last week and a drop in the New Zealand service sector index today, with the Australian and New Zealand dollars falling. The market is watching US data today and tomorrow, And the dollar is stronger on the outcome of growth. It is worth watching today's Chinese economic data, if the performance of strong growth, indirect bullish Australian dollar, may test resistance. On the other hand, if it's going down, test the support. It Is believe that the New Zealand dollar will continue to follow the trend and pace of the Australian dollar against the US dollar.

    Dollar to yen
    108.05/108.25 resistance
    107.50/107.25 support
    Dow futures (US30) and Nikkei index futures (JPN225) fell at the opening bell in Asia, while the dollar followed the yen. The expected increase in US data today and tomorrow is expected to limit the Dow's decline, while the dollar can maintain correction Of 50%, support at 107.50. If the US data falls, the result may be lower than previous values and expectations, Dow futures and Nikkei futures may fall and believe in leading the dollar to fall against the yen. The performance of China's economic data Is also resultworthy today. As a result, Asian stock markets, especially Nikkei index futures, may be affected, indirectly affecting the dollar-yen trend. In terms of technical analysis, 108.25 resistance is more noteworthy.

    US dollar to Canadian dollar
    1.3245/1.3280 resistance
    1.3200/1.3175 support
    Noted that existing home prices in Canada are expected to fall, while US data are expected to rise, bearish for the Canadian dollar. If crude oil futures prices fall back and the Canadian dollar Loss support, it will be bearish for the Canadian dollar. Note the 1.3200 and 1.3175 support levels, respectively.

    US crude oil futures
    60.70/62.65 resistance
    58.70/57.05 support
    An attack on Saudi Arabia's oil supply system has sharply reduced supplies of crude oil, boosting crude oil futures. But oil futures are stabilizing after the US President opened up his strategic oil reserves and Saudi Arabia resumed regular supplies as soon as a week later. Prices will be weak if supplies stabilize, and the US continues to ease sanctions on Iran to boost supplies. Technically, expect the subordinate support 58.70 and 57.05 support, pay attention to 60.70 or 62.65 resistance.

    Gold
    1526/1530 resistance
    1502/1496 support
    If Dow futures rise before the meeting, the gold price will accompany the bullish. But with Dow futures down, Gold won't drop much. Strong US economic data today and tomorrow could limit gold's price gains. Probably the price goes down. It's time to look the price up.

    U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
    27205/27305 resistance
    26870/26745 support
    Last week, Dow futures' trend was expected to have a chance to reverse. If Dow futures breakthrough 27,075 support, they will have the opportunity to dip below recommendation 26,870 support. The market is watching the performance of the US economic data today and tomorrow. An active reading could lift Dow futures, pushing up resistance to 27205 and 27305 if the US data are going well and over the market expectation.

    BTCUSD:
    10550 /10950 resistance
    10150 / 9850 support
    The market expected the FOMC might rate cut incoming monetary policy decision this Thursday; the bitcoin price is looking go up. In the beginning, we have looked at the Dow future fell, the bitcoin price and cryptocurrencies would move upward. If Dow future rise, Please aware the bitcoin price go down.

    Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

    Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
    Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

    Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
     
  4. Kelly Yeung

    Kelly Yeung ATFX.com Representative

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2018
    Messages:
    428
    Likes Received:
    3
    ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
    ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 September 17


    Personal opinions today:

    The Australian dollar was bearish today as the reserve bank of Australia released minutes of its September monetary policy meeting, noting any hint that it was considering easing monetary policy. In European trading, watch for the ZEW economic sentiment index for September in Germany and the Eurozone. U.S. industrial and manufacturing output in August was expected to rise from a month earlier in the trading session to see if they beat expectations. The US will see a net capital inflow tomorrow in July.

    On Thursday the world's four biggest central banks, the Fed, Japan, Switzerland and the UK, announced their interest rates. Markets are more focused on the Fed's interest rate cut and whether the bank of Japan will expand its easy money policy in anticipation of a consumption tax hike in October. The dollar index rose from 97 as markets priced in a 25 basis point cut in Fed interest rates. The dollar was supported by a cut in U.S. interest-rate futures, with the Euro topping 1.10 and other European and commodity currencies falling. Gold price is trading below $1,500.

    An attack on the Saudi oil supply system has affected primary global crude supplies. The price of October oil futures rose last night to $63. The market is looking at U.S. API crude oil inventories tomorrow.

    [Important financial data and events]
    Note: * is the degree of importance


    09:30 RBA minutes ***
    17:00 Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index **
    20:30 Canada new manufacturing orders **
    21:15 US industrial output for August **
    22:00 US NAHB housing market index *
    Next day 02:00 US net capital inflows in July
    Next day 04:30 US API crude inventories ***


    Today suggestion :

    Eurodollar
    1.1025/1.1050 resistance
    1.0985/1.0960 support
    European central bank cut interest rates at a low rate, the quantitative easing plan did not take effect in time, and the economic recovery timetable was delayed. The Euro finally broke through support; technical trend Euro breakthrough 20-day and 10-day moving average 1.1052 and 1.1040 support. The ZEW economic sentiment index for Germany and the Eurozone was weak in September, U.S. industrial and manufacturing output rose, the dollar strengthened, and the Euro had an opportunity to maintain its downward trend.

    Pound against dollar
    1.2455/1.2475 resistance
    1.2385/1.2355 support
    The market is focused on the fed and the Bank of England. The former market has already priced in a quarter-point cut. The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged but failed to make progress on Brexit in the face of expected strong U.S. economic data, weighing on sterling. Further downside risks to pound, with 1.2500 becoming a significant headwind. Yesterday, it pointed out that if the resistance to 1.2505 or 1.2525 fails to breakthrough, keep an eye out for pound to test support at 1.2420 and 1.2385 before the monetary policy decision. Currently, the resistance level is expected to be lowered to see if the support level of 1.2385 will breakthrough and then try 1.2355 or below.

    Australian dollar to US dollar
    0.6885/0.6905 resistance
    0.6845/0.6830 support
    The market is waiting to see if the RBA minutes, it will provide any monetary policy trends. The market expects the US data performance to increase today, economic growth, and the US dollar performance is stronger, indirectly against the Australian dollar, limit the rise of the Australian dollar, more likely to test the support level. It is believed that the New Zealand dollar will continue to follow the trend and pace of the Australian dollar against the US dollar.

    Dollar to yen
    108.25/108.40 resistance
    107.80/107.65 support
    The dollar rose as markets anticipated rise in US data and expectations of a rate cut by the federal reserve cooled. Dow and Nikkei futures rebounded from lows, while the dollar followed the yen. If the Nikkei index futures and Dow futures rise further, indirectly benefit the dollar against the yen trend. Technically, however, the USDJPY 108.25 and 108.40 resistance is significant; if not break, the short term may test 107.65 support.

    US dollar to Canadian dollar
    1.3255/1.3270 resistance
    1.3200/1.3175 support
    Higher crude oil futures prices are expected to benefit the Canadian dollar indirectly. But existing home prices in Canada fell more than expected, bearish for the Canadian dollar. The outlook for growth in the U.S. and weak data in Canada today is likely to be harmful to the Canadian dollar. If the oil futures price, bearish Canadian dollar. Look for short-term support at 1.3200 and 1.3175. We recommend resistance of 1.3255 and 1.3270.

    US crude futures
    62.65/63.25 resistance
    60.70/58.65 support
    Crude oil futures prices rose after the Saudi oil supply system was attacked, with supplies of key crude falling sharply by 5.2m barrels a day. Oil futures prices are expected to stabilize slowly after the U.S. President opened up strategic oil reserves and Saudi Arabia resumed standard supplies as soon as a week later. Oil prices have limited upside. Technically, it is expected to support the lower level of 60.70 and 58.65 support crude oil futures prices. Keep an eye on the important resistance of 63.25. Without a breakthrough, there is a downside risk to crude oil prices.

    Gold
    1506/1510 resistance
    1496/1492 support
    This week's interest rate cut by the federal reserve is a sure bet, and BoJ are likely to follow suit, potentially bullish gold prices. If Dow futures rise before the meeting, the gold price will follow. U.S. economic data showed growth today, which may limit gold prices. After that, the market digested the good news of the US data growth and expected gold prices also rise. Technically, gold's critical support level is $1,482, and without a breakthrough, gold's upward trend remains unchanged.

    U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
    27205/27305 resistance
    26870/26745 support
    Dow futures were expected to have a chance to pare gains as the market watches for a day of U.S. economic data. A strong U.S. data could bullish Dow futures, test the resistance to 27205 and 27305.

    BTCUSD:
    10550 /10950 resistance
    10150 / 9850 support
    The market expected the FOMC might rate cut incoming monetary policy decision this Thursday, and the bitcoin price is looking go up. Incoming, we have to look at the Dow future fell, the bitcoin price and cryptocurrencies would upward. If Dow future rise, please aware the bitcoin price go down.

    Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

    Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
    Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

    Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
     
  5. Kelly Yeung

    Kelly Yeung ATFX.com Representative

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2018
    Messages:
    428
    Likes Received:
    3
    [​IMG]

    For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


    Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

    ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:
    • AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
    • ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
    • AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
    • AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
    • AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.
     
  6. Kelly Yeung

    Kelly Yeung ATFX.com Representative

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2018
    Messages:
    428
    Likes Received:
    3
    The FED under Trump attack, while markets await the new interest rate roadmap
    Dubai - Thursday 12 September 2019, by Ramy Abouzaid, Head of Market Research ATFX AE.

    The FOMC will meet on Wednesday (September 18th) to announce its monetary policy statement, In addition to the announcement of the Fed officials projections of economic growth in the United States and inflation in addition to their expectations of unemployment rates over the next few years.

    This upcoming meeting comes, In sync with US President Donald Trump's attack on the US Federal Reserve is intensifying. This attack is often in the form of an attack on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, especially after Trump called Powell in his tweets literally “Boneheads.”

    [​IMG]

    We are now one week away from the FOMC meeting. As per FedWacht tool of CME, we can find the market expectations of interest rates, that the markets priced the Fed rate cut by a 0.25% at 88.8%, while the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged priced at 11.2%.

    Given the same probabilities a week ago, we note that the probability of a 0.25% rate cut was 94.6%.

    This change of the probabilities shows that markets are becoming less confident in cutting rates due to better than expected US economic data; besides, Jerome's recent speech in Zurich carried a less pessimistic tone than the markets were expecting.

    The last, and perhaps most important, reason for optimism is a timetable for a return to trade negotiations between the United States and China, and the steps of goodwill by China after the removal of a group of US products from the new tariff lists, as well as willingness to reconsider further US agricultural imports to China.

    At the same time, the United States tried to prove its goodwill by delaying the imposition of the new tranche for two weeks, to avoid those tariffs coinciding with the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China.

    [​IMG]

    All of the above shows us that the issue of the rate cut at FOMC September meeting is now settled for the markets. Which is makes the Fed members' expectations of the short-term interest course, as well as their expectations for growth and inflation figures, remain the most critical issue to focus on.

    [​IMG]


    The Fed's projections at last June's meeting were in a completely different world; Since that meeting, many things have changed, at least the escalation of the trade war and the return of things to relatively calm. But that has not yet changed the fact that protectionist measures since then have become more hostile, and the effects of these long-standing trade tensions are beginning to appear on the global economy. We have seen weaker economic data from Europe and China, prompting other central banks to move toward more aggressive monetary easing, widening the gap between US monetary policy and that of the rest of the world.

    All of this makes us expect that we will see the Fed projections at this meeting more inclined towards reducing the GDP expectations, especially during the next year 2020, as well as reducing their expectations for inflation rates. As for the Fed Interest Path, which is most important, it is more likely that the September plot chart will show us a greater tendency to keep the Fed rate lower for longer-term in response to recent changes globally.

    AT Global Markets UK Ltd (ATFX UK) takes no responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. Any opinions expressed do not reflect those of ATFX UK. This information does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. You should seek independent advice before making investment decisions. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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    Please note: If you are a Professional client, you are not eligible for negative balance protection and you could lose more than your initial deposit.

    Legal: AT Global Markets (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the United Kingdom. FCA registration number (760555). Registered Office: 32 Cornhill, London, EC3V 3SG. Company No. 09827091
     
  7. Kelly Yeung

    Kelly Yeung ATFX.com Representative

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2018
    Messages:
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    ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
    ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 September 18


    Personal opinions today:

    UK and Eurozone CPI in August is a crucial concern during today's European trading session. Canada also released August CPI, affected the USDCAD volatile during the early US trading hours. More importantly, the four major central banks including, the Fed, BoJ, Switzerland central bank and the Bank of England, will announce the results of interest rate on the same day. Markets are paying more attention to whether the federal reserve cut interest rates and Fed Chairman Powell spoke at a press conference. The BoJ has a chance to expand its quantitative easing monetary policy in preparation for an increase in the consumption tax in October. There is a chance that the Bank of England monetary policy remains, but the content of its meetings and the proportion of its nine voting members are important. Markets are looking at the UK and Eurozone data today and have an opportunity to reflect the Bank of England monetary policy tomorrow as it considers cutting interest rates or expanding quantitative easing. Currencies were generally exposed to downside risks ahead of the rate cut by the world's four major central banks. Gold prices rose on expectations that central banks, especially the federal reserve, would consider easing monetary policy. The dollar is expected to fall first before the FOMC meeting. The dollar index has an opportunity to strengthen in anticipation of the Fed’s meeting.

    The attack on Saudi Arabia's oil supply system has affected primary global crude supplies. There are reports that Saudi Arabia's oil supply system is being restored, with production now at 70% and expected to return to full normal levels by November. Besides, crude oil futures fell below $59 as U.S. API crude inventories rose in the market.

    [Important financial data and events]
    Note: * is the degree of importance


    16:30 UK CPI and Retail price in August ***
    17:00 Eurozone CPI for August ***
    20:30 US Housing starts in August **
    20:30 Canadian August CPI **
    22:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventory **
    02:00 the next day US FOMC interest rate decision ***
    02:30 the next day Fed chairman Press conference ***


    Today suggestion:

    EURUSD
    1.1080/1.1105 resistance
    1.1025/1.1000 support
    Markets expect the Eurozone August CPI to rise, possibly leading Euro rose. Also, the Fed discussed interest rates, which it estimated could be cut by 25 basis points. The dollar fell and inflows to the Euro. Technical Euro seems to hover between 20 - and 10-day averages consolidation limited to 1.1105 resistance. Note that the euro fluctuated during the FOMC decision.

    Pound against US dollar
    1.2520/1.2550 resistance
    1.2455/1.2425 support
    The market expects U.K. CPI and retail prices to rise in August, and the federal reserve may cut interest rates. The British pound rebounded from its low yesterday, but limited resistance ahead of 1.2520. If resistance 1.2525 fails to break, keep in mind that British pound could test support at 1.2425 before and after the Fed’s meeting. Note that pound fluctuated during the Fed's announcement.

    Australian dollar to US dollar
    0.6885/0.6905 resistance
    0.6845/0.6830 support
    The RBA minutes of September monetary policy meeting, released in a dovish manner, did not stimulate investor sentiment or publish dovish speech. Note that the Australian dollar fluctuated during the Fed 's announcement. Generally, the federal reserve has not indicated that the beginning of the interest rate cutting cycle, the dollar strong, bearish Australian dollar. The New Zealand dollar follows the Australian dollar. Note that the Australian and New Zealand dollars fluctuated during the Fed’s announcement.

    Dollar/yen
    108.25/108.40 resistance
    107.80/107.65 support
    The dollar rose on expectations of strong US data and cooling of expectations of a rate cut limited a quarter basis point by the federal reserve. The JPY came downward after the Bank of Japan interest rates and monetary policy decision tomorrow. Mainly wait and see the Bank of Japan governor press conference speech. Dow and Nikkei futures traded in narrow, with the USDJPY following the trend. If the Fed cuts interest rates, Nikkei index and Dow futures rose further, indirectly bullish dollar/yen trend. But technically, 108.25 and 108.40 resistance is significant, if not breakthrough, it may test 107.65 support. Note that the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen fluctuated during the Fed's decision.

    U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar
    1.3255/1.3270 resistance
    1.3200/1.3175 support
    Crude oil futures prices fell, indirectly bearish Canadian dollar. The market is concerned about the Canadian CPI fall in August, thus a short Canadian dollar. A weaker Canadian data than market expectations could be bearish for the Canadian dollar. If crude oil futures prices down, further bearish Canadian dollar. Short-term support watches out for 1.3200 and 1.3175 support. Suggest USDCAD first look at 1.3255 and 1.3270 resistance. Note that the U.S. dollar fluctuated against the Canadian dollar during the Fed's announcement.

    US crude oil futures
    60.05/60.75 resistance
    58.25/57.55 support
    Saudi Arabia's crude oil supply system was hit, leading to a 5.2 million barrel drop in essential supplies. But there are reports that nearly 70% of production is resuming. Also, US API crude oil inventories increased, crude oil futures prices fell. Crude oil futures supply is expected to stabilize slowly. Oil prices have limited upside and opportunities to fall. Technically, important support 57.05 and. Note 60.75 significant resistance. If the Fed signals the start of a rate-cutting cycle, it could affect bullish oil prices. Conversely, there are downside risks to crude oil prices. Note that crude oil prices fluctuated during the Fed's announcement.

    Gold
    1506/1510 resistance
    1496/1492 support
    Today, the market is waiting for the four major central banks to cut interest rates in anticipation of the federal reserve; other central banks may follow, which could affect bullish gold prices. If Dow futures rise before the rate meeting, gold will follow suit. Today, if a strong U.S. economic data could limit gold's gains. Technically, gold has significant support at $1,482. Without a breakout, the gold rally remains unchanged. Note that gold prices fluctuated during the fed's announcement.

    U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
    27205/27305 resistance
    26870/26745 support
    The market is watching U.S. economic data and the outcome of the federal reserve rate, the results before the adjustment of the Dow’s gain, is consolidating. A Fed rate cut or further rate cut with a strong U.S. data could lift Dow futures to 27205 and 27305 resistance. Note that Dow futures fluctuated during the Fed's announcement.

    BTCUSD:
    10550 /10950 resistance
    10150 / 9850 support
    The market expected the FOMC might rate cut incoming monetary policy decision after tonight, and the bitcoin price is looking go up. Incoming, we have to look at the Dow future fell, the bitcoin price and cryptocurrencies would move upward. If Dow future rise, please aware the bitcoin price go down.

    Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

    Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
    Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

    Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
     
  8. Kelly Yeung

    Kelly Yeung ATFX.com Representative

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    For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


    Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

    ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:
    • AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
    • ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
    • AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
    • AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
    • AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.
     
  9. Kelly Yeung

    Kelly Yeung ATFX.com Representative

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    ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
    ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 September 19


    Personal opinions today:

    Yesterday, August CPI in the UK and Eurozone was lower than expected, and August CPI in Canada was only in line with expectations. The related currencies had an excellent performance against the dollar, but the dollar recovered after the Fed's interest rate meeting to limit the rise. The four major central banks, including the federal reserve, Bank of Japan, Swiss national bank and Bank of England, announced the results of interest rate hikes today. Today the federal reserve has announced the rate cut, Federal chairman Powell in the press conference, he said the Fed would consider cutting rates if necessary, and did not directly indicate the beginning of the rate reduction cycle. Since then, the dollar has rebounded from its low.

    Monetary policy announcements from the Bank of Japan, the Swiss national bank and the Bank of England today are expected to remain mostly unchanged. But the BoJ has a chance to consider expanding its quantitative easing monetary policy in preparation for an increase in the consumption tax in October. It is believed that the market will pay most attention to the remarks when Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko holds a press conference. The SNB also needs to keep an eye out for any rate cuts. The content of the BOE meetings and the proportion of its nine voting members are even more critical to the bank's decision on interest rates. At present, the central bank monetary policy is generally loose, financial downside risks, gold prices are likely to maintain the trend. The performance of US economic data is worth watching during US trading session. Dow futures were influenced by initial jobless claims, the U.S. second-quarter current account and the performance of the Philadelphia fed manufacturing index in September. Also, take note of what the U.S. President and federal officials said today, which affected the Dow and the dollar, indirectly affecting gold and oil prices.

    [important financial data and events]
    Note: * is the degree of importance


    09:00 Australia unemployment rate in August ***
    11:00 Bank of Japan interest rate decision ***
    14:00 Swiss August trade account **
    14:30 Bank of Japan press conference ***
    15:30 Swiss national bank interest rate decision ***
    16:00 Eurozone July current account **
    16:30 UK Retail sales in August **
    19:00 Bank of England interest rate decision and minutes ***
    20:30 U.S. jobless claims last week **
    20:30 U.S. current account
    20:30 U.S. Philadelphia fed manufacturing index ***
    22:00 US Existing home sales and leading indicator **


    Today's suggestion:

    Euro/dollar
    1.1050/1.1065 resistance
    1.0995/1.0975 support
    Eurozone monthly CPI growth in August was in line with expectations and had led the euro higher. After the fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, no further rate cuts were indicated, and the dollar rebounded, which indirectly led to Euro outflows and bearish Euro. Technical Euro below 20-hour and 10-hour moving averages, limited to 1.1050 resistance. The euro zone's current account for July and UK retail sales for August were the first concerns in European trading today. Subsequently, the Euro is likely to follow sterling during the announcement of the Bank of England interest rate and monetary policy results.

    Pound against US dollar
    1.2520/1.2550 resistance
    1.2455/1.2425 support
    After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, no further rate cuts were indicated, and the dollar rebounded, which indirectly led to an outflow of funds from the British pound, which was bearish. European trading session today, watching the UK August retail sales. Subsequently, the Bank of England interest rates and monetary policy results during the expected release, the pound volatility. Technically, 1.2520 and 1.2550 resistances are significant. Such resistance would be harder to break without the Bank of England's stimulative comments to the bullish British pound.

    Australian dollar to US dollar
    0.6835/0.6855 resistance
    0.6795/0.6775 support
    The minutes of the reserve bank of Australia's September monetary policy meeting, released last week, were dovish and did not stimulate investor sentiment or publish negative news. The market after the Fed interest rate, and no further interest rate reduction intention, the US dollar rose, bearish Australian dollar. Yesterday this analysis pointed out that the federal reserve did not indicate the beginning of the interest rate cutting cycle, the dollar strong, bearish Australian dollar. The New Zealand dollar follows the Australian dollar. Note that the Australian and New Zealand dollars fluctuated during the Fed's announcement.

    Dollar/yen
    108.55/108.70 resistance
    108.05/107.85 support
    US economic data growth, the federal reserve cut interest rates moderately, not to say further rate cuts, the dollar rose. The yen came downward today after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates amid a possible widening of its quantitative easing policy. After the interest rate decision, wait and see Bank of Japan governor press conference. If there is no final policy adjustment, Nikkei index futures fell, the dollar followed the trend against the yen. If the Fed cuts interest rates, Nikkei index futures and Dow futures rose further, indirectly bullish dollar/yen trend. Technically, the dollar broke through 108.40 resistance against the yen, but the dollar fluctuated against the yen as the market waited for the BoJ minutes. Note after interest rate, and the trend reversed down 107 level.

    U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar
    1.3315/1.3345 resistance
    1.3270/1.3250 support
    Saudi oil supplies have partially recovered, the Fed 's rate cut was modest, and crude futures prices fell, indirectly hurting the Canadian dollar. Canada CPI fell in August, in line with market expectations, but the Canada data was weak and bearish for the Canadian dollar. Take note of what the U.S. President and federal reserve officials said today, which affected the Dow future and the dollar stronger, indirectly affecting crude oil prices and the Canadian dollar.

    US crude oil futures
    60.05/60.75 resistance
    58.25/57.55 support
    Saudi crude oil supply system has been attacked. Some crude oil supply is partially recovered. Crude oil futures also fell as U.S. API crude inventories rose. Crude oil futures supply is expected to stabilize slowly. Fundamentals limit the upside for crude oil and have any chance to fall. Technically, keep watching the important support 57.05. Note 60.75 significant resistance. At present, the federal reserve did not say the beginning of the interest rate reduction cycle, bearish crude oil price. Oil futures could get a bullish, depending on tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

    Gold
    1498/1501 resistance
    1485/1483 support
    The Fed cut rates as expected, but Fed Chairman comment that it was not considering cutting rates at its next meeting. Now watch for other central banks to follow suit and cut interest rates or ease policy further, bullish gold prices. If Dow futures rise, the gold price could fall. Looking at the US economic data performance today indirectly affected the price of gold. Technically, the gold price is at a critical support level of $1,483. Without a break in support, the gold price rally remains unchanged.

    U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
    27305/27505 resistance
    26970/26865 support
    The market is watching the U.S. economic data today, indirectly affecting Dow futures. Market expectations of the federal reserve this year meeting, the room to cut interest rates is limited. Until the US and China trade war is resolved, or the fed can lower interest rates further, which could affect bullish Dow futures and only test resistance. Otherwise, watch for downside risks to Dow futures.

    BTCUSD:
    10550 /10950 resistance
    10150 / 9850 support
    The market expected the FOMC cut-rate and monetary policy remained, the bitcoin price is looking go up. Incoming, we have to look at the Dow future fell, the bitcoin price and cryptocurrencies would upward. If Dow future keeps rise, please aware the bitcoin price go down first.

    Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

    Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
    Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

    Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
     
  10. Kelly Yeung

    Kelly Yeung ATFX.com Representative

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2018
    Messages:
    428
    Likes Received:
    3
    [​IMG]

    For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


    Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

    ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:
    • AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
    • ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
    • AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
    • AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
    • AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.
     

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