ATFX Market Updates 2019

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 23

Personal opinions today:

US Q3 real GDP growth, increasing investor confidence in the US economy stronger and investment appetite. The U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment rose in December, and money flowed into dollar assets, with Dow futures hitting highs. Besides, the Brexit at the end of January next year, only a month. Under a deal that still leaves MPS short of a consensus, investors raising nervous. And the Bank of England maintaining a negative economic outlook, the BOE may be onward easing. The pound fell and indirectly affects the Euro. Gold and the yen rose on safe-haven demand. After a rally in crude oil prices, the market is watching consumer sentiment. Christmas holiday coming, investors should concern the market adjusts the position, the market trends could reverse.

In Asian trading today, watch Germany Gfk consumer confidence index and Japan data. Later, Germany released its import price index for November. In the evening U.S. trading session, Canada reported October GDP. In U.S. data, which has a strong impact on global markets, looks at U.S. orders for durable goods in November and the total number of new U.S. home sales in November. The U.S. durable goods orders for November and the total number of new U.S. homes sold in November are forecast to have risen from October, with bullish Dow futures and the dollar expected ahead of the data. European currencies, commodity currencies and gold and silver prices were downward. The price of crude oil is expected to rise.

[Important financial data and events] note: * is important

12:30 Japan all industrial activity**
13:00 Japan leading index **
15:00 German import price index **
21:30 Canada GDP in October ***
21:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ***
23:00 U.S. new home sales **

EURUSD
1.1095/1.1105 resistance
1.1065/1.1055 support
Growth in Europe was weaker than in the United States, where the final reading of Q3 real GDP and the final reading of the Michigan consumer confidence index for December were in line with market expectations. Add to that the prospect of a more significant increase in U.S. durable goods orders in Nov, and it's bearish for the Euro. Technically, the Euro is trending downward, and the fundamentals are bearish. Expect the Euro to moderate its decline against the dollar and continue to plumb. But if the British parliament passes the Brexit bill, the pound will rebound, indirectly boosting the Euro.

Pound to dollar
1.3035/1.3045 resistance
1.2975/1.2965 support
The UK economy is not growing significantly, and the economy is slowing down. Last week, the governor of the Bank of England said uncertainty over Brexit’s impact on economic performance was bearish for the pound. At present, the fundamentals and technical side of the bearish the pound. If the UK parliament finally passes the Brexit bill, the pound could rebound much further. Technically, the short-term focus is on 1.3035 or 1.3045 resistance. If the pound breaks through 1.3045 resistance, the trend is expected to reverse. But expectations for a more significant increase in U.S. durable goods orders in Nov, which is bearish for the pound, which could try to lower support.

Australia dollar to dollar
0.6910/0.6920 resistance
0.6880/0.6870 support
Last week, Australia reported its unemployment rate fell to 5.2% in November, beating market expectations and pushing the Australia dollar higher. Plus, global trade tensions have improved. The U.S. trade representative says the first part of a trade deal with China is expected to be signed next month. The China representative's response was also positive, helping the Australia dollar. It's just U.S. data growth tonight, bullish for the U.S. dollar, and the AUDUSD could be downward, at 0.6910 or 0.6920 which would be resistance. Short-term AUDUSD may test 0.6870 support.

Dollar to yen
109.60/109.70 resistance
109.30/109.20 support
Dow futures rose, with the dollar following suit against the yen. On Thursday, the Bank of Japan left monetary policy loose. Also, the market to watch the release of Japanese economic data at noon today. If the data is not in line with market expectations, we could see the USDJPY trading between 109.60 and 109.70.

USDCAD
1.3165/1.3175 resistance
1.3105/1.3095 support
The Canadian dollar fell last week after Canadian inflation came in below market expectations, and Canada reported no increase in retail sales in October. The market looks at Canada's GDP data in October and reevaluates the strength of the Canadian dollar. If the U.S. data is strong, the Canadian dollar. Crude oil prices only hope to rebound, indirect bullish on the Canadian dollar, limited the decline of the Canadian dollar.

US crude oil futures
60.60/61.15 resistance
60.05/59.75 support
Global economic optimism has supported the rise in oil prices since the U.S. suspended additional tariffs on some China imports. However, the final reading of U.S. Q3 real GDP only maintained market expectations and oil prices downward with the correction of 38.2% of the rise. If tonight, the U.S. economic data beat market expectations. It expected the crude oil prices are expected to rise above $60.05 or $59.75, with an upper limit of $60.60 or $61.15.

Gold
1480/1482 resistance
1476/1474 support
The European central bank keeps its policy loose, and the economic outlook is worrying. The Federal said it faced challenges in keeping interest rates on hold for some time and in the process of Brexit. As a hedge asset, gold hovered between $1,470 and $1,480. Gold is expected to fall if U.S. economic data beat market expectations tonight, suggesting a high correction. If the price of gold is $1,480 or above, watch for price reverse again. First target $1476 or $1474 support, further note $1470.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
28600/28685 resistance
28370/28275 support
Economic data from the United States have increased, trade relations between the United States and China and North America have improved, and investment sentiment has increased. U.S. economic data today is expected to be stronger than the previous month, and the Dow rose by the end of last week. Technically, Dow futures have broken through 28520 resistance, looking for 28600 or 28685 resistance. Must concern that the Christmas holiday, need to be careful trend fluctuation, pay attention to the stock index downward.

BTCUSD:
7850/ 7975 resistance
7075/ 6955 support
The federal reserve announced the suspension of interest rate cuts, bearish for Bitcoin price. Now, the Brexit leads the market risk on. Also, concern the Dow future fall, bullish cryptocurrency and the bitcoin price could rebound. Technically, the first resistance at $7850, next $7975 resistance. If it fails to break the resistance, it may concern downward.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 24

Personal opinions today:

U.S. durable goods orders unexpectedly fell in November after a 2% drop in expectations of a 1.5% rise. U.S. new home sales also fell in November from the previous month. The dollar fell, European currencies, commodity currencies and gold and silver prices generally rose, and crude oil prices have adjusted. But Dow futures continued to rise on hopes that the U.S. trade department will soon sign a trade deal with China.

Stock markets in several countries were closed or closed early ahead of the Christmas holiday today, with some contracts closing early. On the economic front, only the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for December and the U.S. crude oil inventories last week were released at tomorrow morning. Before the Christmas holiday, assuming the global stock markets and contracts in several countries will be closed early.

This column will be closed for one day. Merry Christmas!

[Important financial data and events] note: * is important

Stock markets in several countries were closed or closed early, and some contracts closed early
07:50 Bank of Japan minutes
23:00 the Richmond Fed manufacturing index **
05:30 US API crude oil stocks change ***

EURUSD
1.1095/1.1105 resistance
1.1075/1.1065 support
Recent U.S.economic data growth than expected, bearish for the Euro. But US durable goods orders fell more than expected and the dollar fell. Technically, the Euro’s trend is still down, the fundamentals are still bearish for the Euro. The Euro is expected to decline against the dollar, will continue to test the low. The Euro is likely to trade in a narrow range as markets are closed ahead of the Christmas holiday and trading is light across the board.

Pound to dollar
1.2955/1.2965 resistance
1.2905/1.2895 support
The UK economy is showing weakness and slowing. The governor of the Bank of England said the outlook is uncertain and monetary policy remains loose, which is bearish for the pound. At present, the fundamentals and technical side of the negative pound. Technically, focus on the 1.3000 important resistance. Due to the Christmas holiday eve, the market closed ahead of schedule, the overall market trading is slight. Looking at between 1.2965 resistance and 1.2895 support.

Australian dollar to dollar
0.6930/0.6940 resistance
0.6900/0.6890 support
U.S. durable goods orders for November fell more than expected, while the Australian dollar rose. The AUDUSD had hit the resistance of 0.6930, but trading was light as markets closed ahead of the Christmas holiday. The Australian dollar traded in a limited range against the U.S. dollar. It may suggest, AUDUSD trading between 0.6930 resistance and 0.6900 support in the New year eve.

Dollar to yen
109.50/109.60 resistance
109.30/109.20 support
The Japanese yen is likely to trade in a tight range as markets close early ahead of the Christmas holiday, leaving the broader market thinly traded. Expect USDJPY to trade between 109.30 or 109.20 to 109.60.

USDCAD
1.3165/1.3175 resistance
1.3130/1.3120 support
Canada October GDP was lower than expected and lower than the previous month. But U.S. data was also weak, stabilizing the Canadian dollar and limited the losses. With markets closed early ahead of the Christmas holiday, overall trading was light, with the USDCAD likely to trade in a tight range.

US crude oil futures
60.85/61.15 resistance
60.05/59.75 support
Crude oil price rise stopped price adjustment. The market is watching U.S. API crude oil stocks last week and is likely to keep oil prices above 60.05 or 59.75 support and above 60.85 or 61.15 resistance.

Gold
1488/1490 resistance
1480/1478 support
U.S. November durable goods orders fell more than expected and gold rose during dollar fell. But Dow futures rose and gold limited gains. Gold is likely to trade in a tight range as markets close ahead of the Christmas holiday. If $1,490 does not break through, look for $1,478 or less.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
28600/28685 resistance
28470/28375 support
The market is concerned about when the US-China trade agreement will be signed and the investment climate is good. Last night, the US weak data-limited Dow’s gain. Technically, Dow futures look for resistance on 28600 or 28685. After the Christmas holiday, in response to the situation in the US consumer consumption. We need to be careful about the trend volatility, pay attention to the index correction.

BTCUSD:
7650/ 7775 resistance
7075/ 6955 support
The federal reserve announced the suspension of interest rate cuts, bearish for Bitcoin price. Now, the Brexit leads the market risk on, also concern the Dow future fall, bullish cryptocurrency and the bitcoin price could rebound. Technically, the first resistance at $7650, next $7850 resistance. I fail to break the resistance, it may concern downward.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 26

Personal opinions today:

Markets in Europe and parts of Asia will be closed today after the Christmas holiday.

This afternoon, Japan released orders for new housing starts and construction for November. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan, governor of the addressed a meeting of advisers to Japan's economic and trade council. In the evening, U.S. jobless claims will be released and market expectations were lower than the previous week. But volatility is expected to be muted because of the regional European closure.

[Important financial data and events] note: * is important

13:00 Japan new housing starts and construction **
21:30 U.S. initial and continuing jobless claims ***

EURUSD
1.1095/1.1105 resistance
1.1075/1.1065 support
U.S. durable goods orders fell more than expected in November, while the dollar fell and the euro pared losses. But ECB monetary policy and regional economic data kept the euro's gains in check. Technically, the euro is still on a downward trend and the fundamentals remain bearish. With European markets closed for the Christmas holiday and overall trading less, the euro is likely to trade in a narrow range.

Pound to dollar
1.3000/1.3010 resistance
1.2935/1.2925 support
The UK economy is showing weakness and slowing. The governor of the Bank of England said the outlook is uncertain and monetary policy remains loose, which is bearish for the pound. At present, the fundamentals and technical side of the bearish for pound. Technically, focus on the 1.3000 important resistance. But European markets were closed for the Christmas holiday and overall trading was light. The dollar could benefit if U.S. jobless claims and continuing claims are released, the pound has a chance to test support.

Australian dollar to dollar
0.6930/0.6940 resistance
0.6900/0.6890 support
U.S. durable goods fell more than expected in November and were bearish for the U.S. dollar, while the Australian dollar rose, having hit 0.6930 resistance. However, the Australian dollar traded in a tight range against the U.S. dollar as overall trading was light due to the Christmas holiday. Currently, it focuses on 0.6930 resistance to 0.6900 support. The Australian dollar has a chance to test support against the U.S. dollar, which could benefit from a U.S. jobless claims report.

Dollar to yen
109.70/109.80 resistance
109.45/109.35 support
The Japanese yen is likely to trade in a tight range as the overall market is thin over the Christmas holiday. With today's us data forecast, the bullish dollar/yen is expected to break through 109.60 resistance, upper test upper-level resistance.

USDCAD
1.3165/1.3175 resistance
1.3130/1.3120 support
With markets closed early ahead of the Christmas holiday, overall trading was light, with the USDCAD clawing back at 1.3165 resistance. Today, the market focus on U.S. employment and renewals and oil market performance. The U.S. dollar is expected to trade in a tight range against the Canadian dollar as European markets are closed.

US crude oil futures
61.85/62.15 resistance
60.65/60.25 support
The market watched U.S. API crude inventories change tomorrow morning, keeping crude prices up. Technically watch U.S. crude futures seems to test 61.85 or 62.15 resistance.

Gold
1501/1503 resistance
1490/1488 support
Dow futures fell as orders for U.S. Durable goods fell over expected in November. Gold rose as a safe-haven asset, pushing the price of gold closer to $1,500. With European markets closed and overall trading less, gold is likely to trade in a tight range. If gold keeps below $1,503 resistance, it could test $1,488. If U.S. jobless claims beat market expectations, expect to see another support at $1,483.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
28600/28685 resistance
28470/28375 support
The market news said the United States and China will sign a trade deal next month, the investment climate is good. Technically, Dow futures look for resistance on 28600 or 28685. After the Christmas holiday, in response to the US consumer market, pay attention to the stock index adjustment. If the consumer market consumption over last year, Dow futures are expected to rise, potentially breaking through the recommended resistance.

BTCUSD:
7550 / 7775 resistance
6955 / 6800support
The federal reserve announced the suspension of interest rate cuts, bearish for Bitcoin price. Now, the Brexit leads the market risk on, also concern the Dow future fall, bullish cryptocurrency, and the bitcoin price could rebound. Technically, the trends seem downward.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.

 

[DaveT]

Wannit to keep going up baby!

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 27

Personal opinions today:

This morning, Japan reported its unemployment rate, retail sales and inflation rate for November. Industrial production and inventories and a summary of BoJ policy meeting deliberations. A series of data show growth, better than expected. The Japanese yen rose in the Asian session to offset yesterday's losses. But gains in the yen were also limited by gains in U.S. Dow futures.

During the Christmas holiday, market information was scarce and the trading volume was lower than usual. See the commodity market by the end of the year under the factors, to rise. The gold market was buoyant, with prices as high as $1, 512. However, gold's gains are expected to be limited as a result of the weekend profit consolidation. With the European market today, watch for a reversal in gold. Tonight's U.S. crude oil inventory announcement, if inventories do not decrease but increase, crude oil prices have a chance to adjust.

[Important financial data and events] note: * is important

09:30 China industrial profits for November **
17:00 European Central Bank economic bulletin ***
17:00 Swiss ZEW investor confidence index for December *
24:00 US EIA crude oil inventory change ***

EURUSD
1.1015/1.1125 resistance
1.1085/1.1075 support
European markets re-open after the Christmas holidays, the market trading not active. In the Asian sessions, the Euro may rise. But note the afternoon economic bulletin from the European central bank, which could test 1.1085 or 1.1075 support against the dollar if it continues to forecast a lack of growth expectations in the first quarter of next year, which could limit investor appetite.

Pound to dollar
1.3040/1.3050 resistance
1.2955/1.2945 support
The BoE governor said before, the outlook for the UK economy was uncertain and that the monetary policy would remain loose, bearish the pound. After the U.K. parliament approved the Brexit deal at the end of January. On the technical analysis, the pound is testing 1.3000 resistance. Rebound wave 38.2% for 1.3050, is the key resistance. With investors still uncertain about an orderly Brexit at the end of January, a high degree of caution is needed. Based on the current uncertain outlook, it is recommended to focus on 1.3050 resistance and 1.2945 support. And the technical reference 1.2945 support to start, staged entry to see the rise in the pound. If you break 1.3050 resistance, look up to the 1.32 level.

Australian dollar to dollar
0.6955/0.6965 resistance
0.6920/0.6910 support
Confidence in consumer spending rose at the end of the year as international trade tensions eased. The market is forecasting higher commodity and base metal prices next year. Moreover, China, which has a close relationship with Australia's trade, has boosted the Australian dollar's exchange rate as the trade and consumption season raises Australia's export expectations. Technically, it is recommended to refer to the trend of currencies in the Asia-pacific region, especially the Japanese yen and the China RMB exchange rate, which is believed to be references of the Australian dollar trends.

Dollar to yen
109.70/109.80 resistance
109.40/109.30 support
During the Christmas holiday, the overall market trading volume lower. The yen edged higher today after a slew of Japanese economic and inflation data beat market expectations. Without U.S. data release today, the dollar-yen trends may follow the Dow futures and the Nikkei index.

USDCAD
1.3145/1.3155 resistance
1.3085/1.3075 support
U.S. jobs claims declined, and U.S. API crude stocks are down sharply, sending crude prices higher. In addition, a new trade agreement between Canada and the United States will soon be finalized. If crude oil has a chance to break above $62 and Canadian consumption growth expectations continue, the USDCAD is expected to test the October low at $1.3050 after trading at $1.3100. However, the 1.3085 support bit can be tested first.

US crude oil futures
61.85/62.15 resistance
60.65/60.25 support
U.S. crude oil inventories fell sharply last week and Christmas spending rose, supporting a rise in crude prices to a three-month high. Technically, watch U.S. crude futures try 62.15 resistance, testing US63.85 next high. However, closer to the weekend, the price could be a correction.

Gold
1515/1517 resistance
1505/1503 support
The rally continued after gold broke through $1,503. Prices are rising daily between the start of the European market and the U.S. market every day. At the moment, the market is not driven by rising risk aversion, but by investors presumably dealing with some of their short positions. Without real demand for risk aversion, gold prices could lose support at any time if market risk appetite rises. At present, if expectation good in global economic outlook, carefully gold prices fell.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
28725/28800 resistance
28615/28525 support
The U.S. government says it will sign the first phase of a trade deal with China next month. Also, the Dow upward after initial jobless claims fell and Christmas spending increased. Technically, Dow futures hit the first target and broke the resistance as expected in this analysis. The next target could be 28725 or 28800 resistance. But toward the end of the year, note Dow futures adjustment risk because investors take profit.

BTCUSD:
7550 / 7775 resistance
6955 / 6800 support
The federal reserve announced the suspension of interest rate cuts, bearish for Bitcoin price. However, Brexit may lead the market risk on, also concern the Dow future fall, bullish cryptocurrency, and the bitcoin price could rebound. Technically, the trends seem downward.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Democrats: “We did not choose this impeachment”, Republicans answer “oh come on”.

On Wednesday the 18th of December – a Democratic-led US House of Representatives impeached US President Donald Trump for abusing the power of his office and of obstructing the investigation of the Congress to cover up his Ukraine scandal.

Even though the other – 3 Ex-impeached presidents – would’ve reacted differently, Trump is not only defending himself by calling this whole impeachment a “Hoax!” and a “political witch hunt”, he’s actually betting on it to expand his popularity amongst fellow – future voters – Americans;

“Have you seen my polls in the last four week?” Trump answered a confused USA Today reporter when asked about the possibility of his impeachment.

The dear USA Today reporter, your confusion is totally understandable. Given the fact that most of the polls reveal that the majority of the Americans form October onwards support trump being impeached with a percentage reaching in December 47.4% supporting the impeachment vs 46,4% that don’t. Just so you get a better idea on how drastic this percentage is, you can simply compare it to the polls by mid-April – when Mueller report made public – when 53.3% didn’t support the impeachment vs 37.4% supporting it. The majority remained inclined to go against the impeachment even after Mueller testification before the congress, but it went downhill by the end of September – beginning of October after News about Ukraine scandal snowballed.

Trump’s office is trying its best to market the vote as a politically motivated move from the Democrats from the very beginning. Could the impeachment be metamorphosed into a political win for Mr. President and his party?

Again, most of the polls calculating the approval rate of the president reveal that this scenario is very improbable. From Data gathered by Ipsos, YouGov, NBC News/Wall Street Journal and Morning Consult, the approval rate of Mr. president since taking office was never really promising, with a disapproval rate always higher, reaching its peak on December 2017 with a rate of 57.4% of Americans disapproving their president vs 35.6% approving. As for today, his disapproval rate is at 52.5% vs 42.2% approval rate, maybe his popularity didn’t get smashed, that hard, after the impeachment after all!

Even if, miraculously, Trump succeeded in changing the numbers – through his deal with China or through a Tweet or something – It could help him in the upcoming elections – but would his popularity stop him from being convicted and removed from office altogether?

Not really sure if he should be betting on that. So, what now?

So far, the markets didn’t respond volatility to the news, and it doesn’t really seem that it’s worried about what would happen next – for President Trump to be removed from office the trial must convict him with a majority of two-thirds, and with Republicans holding the majority of 53-47, it really seems like an unlikely scenario.
The Dollar index that studies the movement of six major currencies in contrast to the dollar, closed at 97.40 not so far from its high at 97.475 on Wednesday. The greenback doesn’t seem really affected by the news.

Even stock-market indexes didn’t show a great reaction on Thursday, it even closed on near all-time highs. on Wednesday futures trading showed a small increase for stocks as for Equities, and by the end of Wednesday’s regular session, has weakened with the S&P 500 SPX closing at -0.04% and Dow Jones (DJIA) closing at -0.10%, a percentage that barely broke the five days high.

The NASDAQ Composite Index (NDX) also showed no concern; Even though it remained almost steady on the day of impeachment (moved a little higher from 8,823.36 on the 17th of December to 8,827.72 on the 18th of December), it went significantly up afterwards to reach 8,924.96 on the 20th of December.

Just as Trump, the Markets doesn’t “show” that it’s too worried about the impeachment, is it because the markets are as good as Mr. president in overlooking the facts?
The bomb was dropped by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi exposed the real conflict between the two parties. As she stated directly after the impeachment, that she won’t be sending the articles to the Senate, until she is able to confirm that it will get a fair hearing; A trial with testimonies, witnesses and open documents.

This move could lead to a delay in the trial, which was supposedly meant to take place after the New Year’s. Especially, since Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell rejected Democrats’ request to get witnesses to the trial. A delay that both Democrats and Republicans believe that would be to their benefit.

Who’s right? We are yet to see.

End
ATFX.com​

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 224226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is: The Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St. Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 30

Personal opinions today:

U.S. trade officials said the first phase of a trade deal with China is expected to be signed next month. Also, Dow futures rose on expectations for global economic growth. However, due to the tension between the U.S. and north Korea, some funds have been flowing into gold prices and the Japanese yen, which are even more bearish to the US dollar. The dollar also fell against other major currencies, with the Euro edging closer to $1.12 and the pound testing $1.3110. Commodity currencies also rose, with the Australian and New Zealand dollars hitting four-month highs. Crude oil prices continue to rise, driving up the Canadian dollar. USDCAD at 1.30 level.

In European trading today, Germany real retail sales and Switzerland released KOF economic leading indicator. As New Year's holiday approaches, U.S. data are scarce. In the United States, the December Chicago PMI, November pending home sales index and Dallas fed business activity index were released today.

Some countries in Europe will be closed tomorrow or early, trading volume could lower. If nothing important happens, the broad market moves up and down in a ranging.

[Important financial data and events] note: * is important

15:00 Germany real retail sales ***
16:00 Switzerland KOF economic leading indicator **
22:45 U.S. Chicago PMI in December **
23:00 U.S. pending home sales index **
23:30 U.S. Dallas fed business activity index **

EURUSD
1.1205/1.1215 resistance
1.1175/1.1165 support
Before the end of the year, some institutions adjust positions, covering short positions in the Euro, the Euro rose, the last test of the two-week high of 1.1197. Markets focus on afternoon trading session, Germany November actual retail sales, market forecast growth, now bullish on the Euro. If the data only meets expectations, there is an opportunity to be negative for the Euro. Technical estimates that the Euro’s adjustment is expected to test either 1.1175 or 1.1165 support.

Pound to dollar
1.3135/1.3145 resistance
1.3060/1.3050 support
Approaching the New Year holiday and the end of the year portfolio adjustment, the short position covered, pound rebound. Technically, the 38.2% rebound from a mid-month high of 1.3520 and a one-week ago low of 1.2904 was 1.3137, a key technical resistance. But investors remain cautious about Brexit by the end of January. With the UK economy still in limpid shape, there is a chance of limiting gains to 1.3137 headwinds. For now, investors remain on the sidelines, with the pound likely to test 1.3060 or 1.3050 support against the dollar if gains are adjusted.

Australian dollar to dollar
0.6995/0.7005 resistance
0.6960/0.6950 support
The Australian dollar rebounded to a four-month high on easing trade sentiment between China and the United States, as well as expectations of rising consumer confidence and manufacturing and demand for industrial metals. In addition, the US dollar adjustment, to support the Australian dollar up. But watch today's U.S. December Chicago PMI and other U.S. data and expectations for other U.S. data this week, which have an opportunity to bullish the U.S. dollar and the Australian dollar lower.

Dollar to yen
109.65/109.75 resistance
109.25/109.15 support
A rise in risk aversion ahead of the New Year holiday, combined with the fact that some funds settle before the end of the year, pushed the dollar lower against the yen. The dollar is likely to remain flat against the yen on expectations for U.S. data today. It is recommended, 109.25 or 109.15 support and 109.65 or 109.75 resistance.

USDCAD
1.3095/1.3105 resistance
1.3040/1.3030 support
US - Mexico - Canada, new trade deal to be implemented soon. In addition, crude oil prices continued to rise, global economic optimism and easing trade sentiment helped Canadian exports, with the U.S. dollar testing an October low of 1.3040 after potentially testing $1.3100 against the Canadian dollar. the 1.3040 as a reference key support.

US crude oil futures
61.85/62.05 resistance
60.45/60.25 support
The market is predicting higher demand for crude oil at the end of the year, with the U.S. API crude stocks expected to shrink again last week, supporting higher crude oil prices. Technically, watch U.S. crude oil futures test $62.05 resistance. If the breakthrough, expect to test technical resistance $63.80. But close to the holiday, pay attention to the oil price adjustment. $62.05 resistance is the key resistance in short term.

Gold
1516/1518 resistance
1508/1506 support
Gold continued its rally, hitting a two-month high near $1, 516. It may be affected by the tension between the US and north Korea and fund portfolio allocation. If the above situation settled, and rising global economic expectation, global stocks keeping upward, suggestion carefully gold prices fell. For now, watch for $1516 or $1518 resistance, while support is recommended for $1508 or $1506 support.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
28800/28845 resistance
28680/28640 support
The Dow future continued to upward after the U.S. government said it would complete the first phase of a trade deal with China next month, coupled with a year-end consumption season and a positive investment climate. Technically, Dow futures completed the first target 28685 and test the next target 28800 resistance. But near the end of the year, pay attention to the investors take profit, lead the Dow future reverse.

BTCUSD:
7550 / 7775 resistance
6955 / 6800 support
The federal reserve announced the suspension of interest rate cuts, could bearish for Bitcoin price. However, Brexit may lead the market risk on, also concern the Dow future fall, bullish the bitcoin price in short terms. Technically, the bitcoin’s trend seem downward.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

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