Daily Analysis

[Zforex]

Rate Hike Bets Increase as Oil Fuels Inflation Risks (09.08.2026)​

Global markets remained focused on rising energy prices and expectations for further monetary tightening across major economies.

The dollar index slipped to around 98.8, falling for a second session as BOJ tightening bets and carry trade unwinding lifted the yen. Traders price in roughly 60% odds of a 25bp Fed hike next week after Friday’s strong jobs report, while this week’s inflation data and expected ECB tightening are next. US-Iran fighting also kept oil and inflation risks in play.

Japan’s 10-year yield fell to around 2.89% as the yen reached a seven-month high, easing inflation pressure. Carry trade unwinding, repatriation bets and US calls for tighter policy supported the currency, while a BOJ hike is expected this month and another could follow by January. Wages grew at their fastest pace since 1997, and Q2 GDP was revised higher.

The US 10-year yield held around 4.77% before this week’s inflation data. August payrolls rose 162K, well above forecasts, with earlier months revised higher, pushing odds of a 25bp Fed hike to roughly 60%. Expected ECB and BOJ tightening and higher oil prices added to rate pressure.

US stock futures edged lower as trading resumed after the holiday weekend. Oil extended gains following weekend US-Iran strikes, while Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on $20 billion of US goods took effect. Fed hike odds stood near 60%, as Uber prepared a euro bond debut and Novo Nordisk halted two more heart-drug trials.

Euro Holds Steady Above $1.16​

The euro held steady just above $1.16 as market participants assessed political shifts in Germany following the far-right AfD party's decisive election victory in Saxony-Anhalt, which dealt a setback to Chancellor Merz's conservative coalition. Investors are also monitoring climbing crude oil prices near multi-week peaks after US military strikes on Iranian oil tankers, adding to inflationary pressures.

Meanwhile, traders fully price an ECB interest rate increase this Thursday, with high expectations for a subsequent hike before year-end.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1640 while the support starts from 1.1600.

Gold Holds Near $4,400 Amid Rate Hikes​

Gold hovered near $4,400 on Tuesday, constrained by expectations of upcoming rate hikes from major central banks as elevated oil prices keep inflation risks high. Traders see a 60% chance of a Fed rate increase next week, alongside expected tightening from the ECB and BOJ.

Ongoing US-Iran conflict maintains upward pressure on energy prices, providing a underlying cushion for bullion.

First resistance is seen at $4460, with initial support near $4380.

Yen Strengthens Past 154​

The Japanese yen advanced past 154 against the dollar on Tuesday, reaching its strongest point since February and extending its recovery from July's historic lows. Broad unwinding of carry trades, expectations of capital repatriation, and external pressure for tighter monetary policy drove the currency higher.

Investors increasingly anticipate a Bank of Japan rate hike this month, supported by the administration's open stance toward tightening and wage growth accelerating at its fastest pace since 1997.

First resistance is seen at 154.50, with initial support near 152.80.

Sterling Gains Traction Near 1.3540​

GBP/USD consolidated near 1.3540, establishing higher lows as UK Finance Minister Healey's fiscal discipline pledge helped stabilize government bond yields near 5.15%.

Although strong US jobs data initially supported the dollar, dollar momentum slowed following hawkish remarks from the Bank of England's chief economist, with investors now anticipating up to two British rate increases over the next six months.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3560, with support around 1.3500.

Silver Recovers Above $66​

Silver climbed above $66 on Tuesday, though gains remained capped as traders prepared for potential interest rate increases from global central banks responding to oil-driven inflation.

Markets currently price in a 60% probability of a Fed rate hike next week, with tightening also anticipated from the ECB and BOJ. Sustained US-Iran tensions keep energy prices elevated, offering continuous structural support for precious metals.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $67.50, while support is located around $66.00.

BRENT Oil​

Brent held above $97, near six-week highs, after Iran said an Oman agreement on managing Hormuz shipping was close to completion, raising questions over Tehran’s growing control of the waterway.

Attention also turns to the US response following weekend strikes on Iranian tankers.

Oil gained nearly 10% last week, while Aramco’s Jazan facility was hit Monday. Roughly 7 million barrels per day still pass through Hormuz.

Resistance is seen at 98.50, while the nearest support stands at 96.00.

Nasdaq 100​

The Nasdaq 100 traded near 29,670, consolidating below the 30,000 threshold as strong AI infrastructure demand competes with higher Fed rate expectations.

Semiconductor and AI stocks continue to provide support, while the prospect of tighter policy puts pressure on growth-heavy tech valuations.

The first resistance stands at 29,950, while initial support is at 29,450.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin traded near $79,000, consolidating after meeting resistance around $80,000 to $83,000. Futures open interest of roughly $27.5 billion is running ahead of softer spot demand, while more than $200 million in long positions were recently liquidated.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to record net inflows, helping cushion declines, though higher bond yields and hawkish central bank signals are limiting upside.

First resistance is seen at 80,000, with initial support near 76.500.

Offshore Chinese Yuan​

The offshore yuan held around 6.7100 per dollar, near its strongest level since January 2023, supported by strong Chinese trade figures. Exports jumped 25.0% year-on-year to $401.44 billion in August, while imports surged 28.2% and the trade surplus widened to $119.09 billion.

The figures come as Washington pressures Beijing before a planned Trump-Xi meeting, with the current tariff truce set to expire in November.

Resistance stands at 6.7170 while the nearest support is located at 6.7000.

 

[Zforex]

Markets Brace for ECB Decision (09.09.2026)​

Rising energy prices and tighter policy expectations remain key market drivers as Middle East tensions continue to support commodities. Gold is hovering near $4,400, Bitcoin around $79,000, while the US 100 has softened and the euro is holding near $1.1630 ahead of the ECB decision.

Attention will then shift to US PPI on Thursday and CPI on Friday, both of which could reshape expectations for next week’s Fed meeting. Meanwhile, the yen has strengthened toward 153 per dollar as BOJ tightening bets, short covering and capital repatriation fuel a broader carry-trade unwind.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Holds Near $1.1630​

The euro traded steadily around $1.1630 as investors turned their focus toward the European Central Bank's upcoming monetary policy decision. Rising energy costs continue to heighten inflation fears. Markets broadly anticipate an interest rate increase on Thursday, with traders pricing in strong odds of a subsequent rate hike before year-end.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1650 while the support starts from 1.1600.

Gold Stabilizes Near $4,400​

Gold traded near $4,400 an ounce on Wednesday following two straight days of losses, pressured by rising energy prices that heightened inflation concerns and increased expectations for further interest rate hikes.

Crude prices continued their upward trajectory after US forces destroyed five Iranian tankers near Kharg Island in response to targeted attacks on a US warship.

First resistance is seen at $4390, with initial support near $4320.

Yen Holds Firm Near 153​

The Japanese yen advanced toward 153 against the dollar on Wednesday, staying near its highest levels in almost seven months. The move followed remarks from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who warned traders against shorting the currency.

Bessent noted he possesses valuable insight into Bank of Japan policy decisions regarding market moves and prospective exchange rate interventions.

First resistance is seen at 154.50, with initial support near 152.80.

Sterling Holds Above $1.35​

The British pound traded stably just above $1.35 as persistent inflation worries strengthened expectations for additional Bank of England rate increases. Energy markets experienced sharp gains, with Brent crude nearing $100 per barrel and UK natural gas reaching multi-year highs.

These price surges follow escalating Middle East friction and potential shipping agreements between Iran and Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3570, with support around 1.3500.

Silver Holds Above $66​

Silver traded near $66.6 an ounce on Wednesday following two sessions of decline, as elevated energy costs heightened inflation concerns and reinforced expectations for additional rate hikes.

Crude prices pushed higher after US forces destroyed five Iranian oil tankers near Kharg Island in response to missile strikes targeting a US warship, adding upward pressure across commodity markets.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $66.50, while support is located around $64,80.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent climbed above $99 a barrel, its highest level in nearly seven weeks and close to the $100 mark, after the US targeted several Iranian tankers near Kharg Island, a major oil export hub.

The attacks raised concerns over possible disruptions to global oil supplies.

Resistance is seen at 100.50, while the nearest support stands at 96.00.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 Tech Index traded at 29,404, down 0.12% from the previous session. The index has lost 0.74% over the past four weeks but gained 23.29% over the past 12 months. Forecasts point to 28,915 by quarter-end and 27,106 within a year.

Resistance stands at 29,950, while the nearest support is located at 29,450.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin traded at $78,669, up 0.29% from the previous session. The cryptocurrency has gained 23.09% over the past month but is still down 30.98% year-on-year. Forecasts point to $80,762 by quarter-end and $90,339 within a year.

First resistance is seen at 80,000, with initial support near 76.500.

Offshore Chinese Yuan​

The offshore yuan traded near 6.70 per dollar, its strongest level since January 2023, as it gained appeal as a funding currency for carry trades.

Recent yen strength has encouraged a shift toward alternatives such as the yuan, helped by China’s relatively low interest rates and currency stability.

Resistance stands at 6.7170 while the nearest support is located at 6.7000.

 

[Zforex]

Euro Gains Ahead of ECB Decision (09.10.2026)​

Europe could get another rate hike today, as higher oil prices make the ECB’s inflation challenge harder. A further increase by year-end is priced in with near certainty, even as policymakers stick to a data-dependent path.

US PPI is due later today, followed by CPI on Friday, putting the Fed outlook back in play. Gold is holding near $4,400, while the US 100 has slipped 0.29% to 29,258 as rate uncertainty weighs on tech.

Brent is holding near $101, close to its highest since May, as the US-Iran conflict raises the risk of further supply disruptions. Higher oil prices add another inflation challenge as major central banks consider tighter policy.

Discover more on zForex!​

Economic Calendar​

Euro Advances to $1.1640​

The euro rose toward $1.1640, touching its highest level since late August as investors positioned ahead of the European Central Bank's policy decision on Thursday. Markets anticipate another interest rate increase and a continued data-dependent approach, even as ongoing military conflicts in Iran create further uncertainty for regional inflation trends.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1680 while the support starts from 1.1600.

Gold Stays Flat Near $4,400​

Gold held near $4,400 per ounce on Thursday, preserving gains from the prior session as market participants awaited incoming US inflation data for direction on future Federal Reserve interest rate moves. Investors are monitoring Thursday's producer price index report, followed by key consumer price figures scheduled for release on Friday.

First resistance is seen at $4440, with initial support near $4390.

Yen Keeps Stable Near 153.4​

The Japanese yen hovered around 153.4 per dollar on Thursday, remaining near seven-month peaks ahead of an anticipated Bank of Japan rate hike next week. Board members are broadly expected to raise the key interest rate to 1.25%, reaching a three-decade high following the central bank's previous tightening action in June.

First resistance is seen at 154.50, with initial support near 152.80.

Pound Edges to $1.354​

The British pound rose toward $1.354, sustained by expanding expectations that the Bank of England will pursue additional interest rate increases to counter mounting inflation. Meanwhile, energy markets surged as Brent crude briefly touched $100 per barrel and domestic natural gas hit multi-year highs, driven by intensifying Middle East conflict and heightened supply disruption fears.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3570, with support around 1.3500.

Silver Holds Above $67​

Silver traded above $67 per ounce on Thursday, maintaining recent gains while investors focused on key US inflation reports that could shape future Federal Reserve policy. The August producer price index arrives later today, followed by consumer inflation figures scheduled for release on Friday.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $68.50, while support is located around $64,90.

Brent Oil​

Brent held around $101 a barrel, close to its highest level since May, as US-Iran tensions raised the risk of further Middle East supply disruptions. Tehran said it was prepared to intensify the conflict, challenge the US naval blockade and increase attacks if US forces continue targeting Iranian territory.

The first resistance stands at $102.50, while initial support is at $98.00.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 Tech Index fell 86 points to 29,258. The index has declined 0.91% over the past four weeks but is still up 21.95% over the past 12 months. Forecasts point to 28,915 by quarter-end and 27,106 within a year.

The first resistance stands at 29,950, while initial support is at 29,350.

Offshore Chinese Yuan​

The offshore yuan held near 6.7063 per dollar, its strongest level since early 2023, as demand for the currency as a carry-trade funding option grew. With the yen strengthening sharply, the yuan has gained appeal as an alternative due to China’s low interest rates and relatively stable currency.

Resistance stands at 6.7170 while the nearest support is located at 6.7000.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin traded at $78,402, up 0.18% from the previous session. The cryptocurrency has gained 23.37% over the past month but is still 32.14% lower year-on-year. Forecasts point to $80,762 by quarter-end and $90,339 within a year.

The first resistance is around $80,500, while initial support stands at $76,500.

 

[Zforex]

Fed Hike Debate: Inflation Is More Than Demand​

The Fed faces another difficult decision as August CPI approaches. Markets increasingly expect another hike, but inflation is being driven by more than strong demand.

Higher energy prices, tariffs, and AI-related technology and infrastructure demand are adding price pressure. Higher rates cannot increase oil supply, reverse tariffs, or solve semiconductor shortages. Instead, they mainly weaken housing, consumption, and investment.

A hot CPI reading could strengthen the higher-for-longer outlook, lift Treasury yields, pressure risk assets, and increase volatility in gold and the dollar.

To summarize, Friday's CPI could strengthen the case for another Fed hike.

 

[Zforex]

Hot US Inflation and Oil Pressure Markets (09.11.2026)​

Inflation and interest rate expectations took center stage as surging energy costs and stronger U.S. producer prices reshaped the policy outlook. The dollar index held above 99 as surprisingly hotter U.S. producer inflation pushed Fed rate hike odds to 71%.

US stock futures were little changed Friday after the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell for a fourth straight session on higher oil and Treasury yields. August CPI is next after stronger producer inflation, driven by Iran war energy costs, pushed Fed hike odds to 71%. Oracle gained more than 4% after hours on strong earnings, while Adobe fell over 2% on weak guidance.

The dollar stayed above 99 before CPI, supported by stronger Fed hike expectations and rising Treasury yields. Oil surged past $100 as the US-Iran conflict showed no signs of easing, raising the risk of prolonged supply disruptions and further inflation pressure.

The US 10-year yield reached 4.97%, its highest since 2023, after a $5.2 billion Treasury buyback fell short of the $6 billion cap. Hot August PPI and oil above $100 added to the selloff, reinforcing the 71% probability of a Fed hike.

Japan’s 10-year yield climbed to 2.99%, near 30-year highs, tracking the US bond selloff as higher oil added another inflation risk. Japanese PPI rose 7.6%, while manufacturer sentiment reached its strongest since Q4 2021, reinforcing BOJ hike expectations after Masu signaled further tightening.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Softens Toward $1.16​

The euro eased toward $1.16 following the European Central Bank's second interest rate hike since the US-Iran conflict began, despite upgraded economic forecasts. Escalating energy costs, driven by Brent crude near $105 and European natural gas reaching multi-year peaks, sustained upward inflation pressure. This prompted markets to price in another ECB hike by December.

A resilient US dollar stayed firm as strong producer price data pushed Federal Reserve rate hike probabilities above 70%.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1640 while the support starts from 1.1560.

Gold Extends Slide Toward $4,360​

Gold hovered near $4,360 per ounce on Friday after sliding almost 2% in the previous session, as traders awaited key CPI data. Hotter PPI figures recently pushed Fed rate hike probabilities to 71%, dampening gold's appeal.

Surging oil prices linked to ongoing US-Iran conflict and rising Treasury yields following a sluggish debt buyback added pressure, leaving bullion on path for a third consecutive weekly drop exceeding 2%.

First resistance is seen at $4400, with initial support near $4300.

Yen Strengthens Past 153​

The Japanese yen hovered around 153.4 per dollar on Thursday, trading near seven-month peaks prior to expected central bank tightening next week.

Bank of Japan policymakers are widely anticipated to increase the benchmark rate to 1.25%, reaching a three-decade high following the previous rate adjustment delivered in June.

First resistance is seen at 155.00, with initial support near 153.80.

Pound Drops to 1.3510​

The British pound declined to 1.3510, pressured by growing policy divergence. Strong US producer price data lifted Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, while Bank of England leadership signaled caution.

Brent crude exceeding $105 amid Middle East supply disruptions further strained the UK economy. Markets now await US consumer inflation figures to evaluate the 60% probability of Fed tightening.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3530, with support around 1.3450.

Silver Slides Toward $64​

Silver traded near $64 on Friday after dropping over 5% in the previous session, as traders awaited incoming US consumer inflation data. Stronger producer price figures recently pushed Fed rate hike probabilities to 71%.

Surging energy costs linked to the US-Iran conflict and rising Treasury yields compounded pressure, setting silver up for a third consecutive weekly drop.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $64.80, while support is located around $62,70.

Brent Oil​

Brent climbed above $108, up around 12% this week and heading for its biggest weekly gain since mid-July as the US-Iran conflict intensified.

Officials reportedly warned Trump that the war could last through his term, while Iran signaled its intention to keep fighting and claimed to have rebuilt its missile capacity.

US strikes on tankers and Iranian missile attacks on US assets added to the escalation.

The first resistance stands at $110.00, while initial support is at $107.00.

Nasdaq 100​

The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.08% to 29,103.51, extending its losing streak to four sessions as oil above $100 and Treasury yields at multiyear highs pressured tech and growth stocks.

The first resistance stands at 29,250, while initial support is at 28,850.

Offshore Chinese Yuan​

USD/CNY traded near 6.7112, close to a nearly one-year low, as the yuan held firm despite surging US Treasury yields that typically support the dollar.

The PBOC set its reference rate at 6.7743, balancing import inflation against export competitiveness.

The first resistance stands at 6.7170, while initial support is at 6.7000.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin traded near $76,811 after touching an intraday low of $76,676, as oil above $100 and surging US Treasury yields strengthened expectations for a Fed hike.

Strong PPI and today’s CPI release have pushed hike odds to 60–76%, weighing on crypto despite $3.8 billion of spot Bitcoin ETF inflows over the past three weeks.

The first resistance stands at $78,500, while initial support is at $75,500.

 

[Zforex]

Eyes on Fed Amid Rising Energy Costs (09.14.2026)​

The ECB delivered a 25-basis-point hike, lifting its deposit rate to 2.50%, while EUR/USD stayed trapped around 1.1590. In Japan, producer inflation accelerated 7.6% in August, strengthening expectations for a BOJ hike this month even as the yen pulled back beyond 154 per dollar.

Wednesday’s Fed decision dominates the week after August CPI held at 3.4% annually but rose 0.4% monthly, the strongest increase in three months. Traders now price an 86% chance of a 25-basis-point hike, keeping pressure on gold near $4,300 and contributing to four straight losses for the Nasdaq 100.

Brent approached a four-month high near $108 after gaining more than 9% last week, as Saudi Arabia suspended its 7 million-barrel-per-day East-West pipeline following drone attacks. Talks over a temporary Hormuz shipping corridor were also postponed, adding another complication to regional energy flows.

The offshore yuan traded near 6.70 per dollar, its strongest since January 2023, as the yen’s rally encouraged carry traders to look toward China’s lower borrowing costs. Chinese inflation also accelerated, with CPI at 0.8% and producer inflation at 3.8%, as higher energy costs fed into domestic prices.

Economic Calendar​

EUR/USD Holds Range at 1.1590​

The EUR/USD pair remained range-bound near 1.1590 for a third straight week, constrained within a tight 100-pip corridor as traders awaited Wednesday's Federal Reserve policy decision.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank delivered an expected 25 basis point rate increase, raising the deposit rate to 2.50%. ECB President Christine Lagarde maintained a hawkish tone in subsequent comments, though her remarks aligned closely with existing market expectations.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1640 while the support starts from 1.1560.

Gold is Under Pressure Around $4,300​

Gold remained under pressure around $4,300 per ounce on Monday after three consecutive weeks of declines. Surging energy prices, triggered by Saudi Arabia closing a vital pipeline following drone strikes, expanded inflationary concerns and reinforced expectations of Federal Reserve monetary tightening.

Markets now price in an 86% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike on Wednesday, following August US CPI data showing annual inflation held at 3.4% with monthly prices advancing 0.4%.

First resistance is seen at $4350, with initial support near $4260.

Yen Weakens Past 154​

The Japanese yen slipped past 154 per dollar on Monday, backing off from near seven-month peaks as a recovering US dollar gained momentum from accelerated August producer inflation data, supporting Federal Reserve rate hike bets.

Higher oil prices and the ongoing US-Iran conflict added further pressure. However, Japanese producer inflation rose 7.6% in August, maintaining market expectations for a potential Bank of Japan interest rate increase this month.

First resistance is seen at 155.00, with initial support near 153.80.

Pound Softens Near 1.3520​

The GBP/USD pair struggled to hold modest early gains on Monday, consolidating around the 1.3520 level while staying above weekly lows. Sterling drew initial support from surprisingly strong UK GDP data, which revealed 0.4% economic expansion in July against forecasts of flat growth.

However, hotter US producer price figures reinforced expectations of Federal Reserve monetary tightening. Persistent geopolitical risks spurred demand for the safe-haven dollar, capping potential upside for the pound.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3530, with support around 1.3450.

Silver Drops Near $63.5​

Silver traded near $63.5 per ounce after dropping more than 5% on Thursday, as market participants awaited key CPI figures. Higher producer price data previously pushed Fed rate hike probabilities to 71%.

Surging oil costs tied to the US-Iran conflict and climbing Treasury yields added further pressure, leaving silver on path for a third consecutive weekly decline.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $64.80, while support is located around $62,70.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent climbed toward $108 a barrel, its highest in four months, after gaining more than 9% last week as Saudi Arabia suspended the East-West pipeline following drone attacks. The 7 million-barrel-per-day route, used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and carry crude to Red Sea ports, has no clear reopening date.

Talks between Iran and Gulf countries on a temporary Hormuz shipping corridor were postponed, with Saudi Arabia reportedly raising reservations and Bahrain declining to participate as the US-Iran dispute over the strait persists.

The first resistance stands at $110.00, while initial support is at $107.00.

Nasdaq 100​

The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.08% to 29,103.51, marking a fourth straight decline as oil above $100 and Treasury yields at multiyear highs weighed on tech and growth stocks.

The first resistance stands at 29,250, while initial support is at 28,850.

Offshore Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH)​

The offshore yuan traded near 6.70 per dollar, close to its strongest level since January 2023, as the yen’s recent surge encouraged greater use of the Chinese currency as an alternative for carry-trade funding. China’s relatively low borrowing costs and stable currency offer cheaper financing as other major central banks keep rates high or consider further tightening.

Annual CPI accelerated to 0.8% in August from 0.5%, matching forecasts, while producer inflation rose to 3.8% from 3.5%, above the 3.7% estimate, largely due to higher energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict.

The first resistance stands at 6.7170, while initial support is at 6.7000.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin traded near $77,488, gaining 0.90% from the previous session. The cryptocurrency is up 22.95% over the past four weeks but down 32.88% over 12 months.

Current projections point to around $77,811 by quarter-end and $87,311 over the next year, based on macroeconomic models and analyst expectations.

The first resistance stands at $78,500, while initial support is at $75,500.

 

[Zforex]

+XAUUSD Update

Gold is trading around $4,275, down roughly 1.7% on the day, as hawkish Fed repricing continues to outweigh safe-haven demand from Middle East tensions.

Hotter US inflation and Treasury yields pushing toward 5% have increased the opportunity cost of holding gold, even as oil and geopolitical risks remain elevated.

Technically, gold is trading below the 50-day SMA with momentum still weak. $4,220 is the key near-term support, while a break below that area could expose deeper downside. On the upside, gold would need to recover above roughly $4,400–4,500 to improve the short-term structure.

+ Brent update

Brent is trading around $110.70, up more than 4% on the day, as supply risks around Saudi infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz drive a sharp geopolitical premium. Reports of shipping disruption and pipeline outages are keeping crude supported, although any confirmed reopening of Hormuz could quickly cool the move.

Technically, Brent is approaching the major $113.50 resistance area after a strong breakout. Momentum remains bullish, but RSI near overbought levels suggests the market is stretched, so fresh escalation could push prices higher while calmer headlines may trigger a sharp pullback or consolidation.

 

[Zforex]

Dollar Strengthens as Markets Brace for Fed (09.15.2026)​

Central bank policy takes center stage as investors prepare for a series of major rate decisions this week.

A 25bp Fed hike on Wednesday is now priced at around 92%, with oil above $100 and the US 10-year yield approaching 5%, reinforcing inflation concerns. The dollar strengthened, pushing the euro toward $1.15 and the yen toward 155.

The ECB has already hiked and at least one more increase is priced this year. The BoE is expected to hold Thursday in a close decision, while the BOJ could raise rates to 1.25% Friday, the highest since April 1995.

Chinese fixed-asset investment fell 7.2%, retail sales growth slowed to 0.4%, and unemployment rose to 5.3%. Industrial output improved to 5.2%, while the decline in house prices eased to 3%, leaving pressure on Beijing to add support as growth risks missing the 4.5%–5.0% target again.

Check more on zForex!​

Economic Calendar​

Euro Slips Toward $1.15​

The euro weakened toward $1.15, its lowest since mid-August, as the dollar remained firm ahead of Wednesday’s expected Fed rate hike. Oil above $100 amid escalating Gulf tensions added to inflation concerns and pressured bond markets.

Following last week’s rate increase, the ECB signaled further tightening, with markets expecting at least one more hike this year. Attention now turns to the Fed on Wednesday, BoE on Thursday and BoJ on Friday, with the BoJ widely expected to raise rates.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1560 while the support starts from 1.1530.

Gold Holds Near Five-Week Low​

Gold traded around $4,300 per ounce, remaining near a five-week low as rising oil prices strengthened expectations for tighter Fed policy. Markets now price roughly a 92% chance of a 25-basis-point hike on Wednesday.

Continued disruption to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and uncertainty over Russia-Ukraine energy attacks kept oil elevated. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield approached 5%, adding pressure on gold. The Bank of Japan is also widely expected to raise rates on Friday.

First resistance is seen at $4350, with initial support near $4260.

Yen Eases Toward 155​

The Japanese yen weakened toward 155 per dollar, extending losses for a second session as the dollar strengthened ahead of an expected Fed rate hike. Higher oil prices also pressured Japan’s energy-dependent economy.

Still, the yen remained near seven-month highs amid expectations for tighter BoJ policy and carry-trade unwinding. The BoJ is widely expected to raise rates to 1.25% on Friday, the highest since April 1995, with markets also watching for signals of another hike this year.

First resistance is seen at 155.00, with initial support near 153.80.

Pound Falls Below $1.35​

The British pound fell below $1.35, its weakest since mid-August, as the dollar strengthened ahead of Wednesday’s expected Fed rate hike. The BoE is expected to hold rates at 3.75% on Thursday, although rising oil prices have increased inflation concerns.

Goldman Sachs expects a 25-basis-point hike in November, supported by persistent inflation and resilient UK growth. Markets are pricing in four BoE hikes by mid-2027, while Governor Andrew Bailey remains cautious about near-term tightening.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3530, with support around 1.3450.

Silver Holds Near Five-Week Low​

Silver traded near $63 per ounce, close to a five-week low as elevated oil prices reinforced expectations for tighter Fed policy. Markets now price around a 92% chance of a 25-basis-point hike on Wednesday.

Continued disruption to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline kept energy prices elevated, while the 10-year Treasury yield approached 5%, adding pressure on silver. The Bank of Japan is also expected to raise rates on Friday amid persistent inflation risks.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $64.80, while support is located around $62,70.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent approached $107 a barrel as supply concerns persisted. Saudi Arabia’s drone-damaged East-West pipeline, which bypasses Hormuz, remained closed with no restart date, while Iran-Gulf talks over the strait were shelved. Tehran reported a supertanker explosion after it hit mines in a prohibited area and said talks with the US would not resume until its demands were met.

Zelenskyy, meanwhile, offered to halt attacks on Russian energy infrastructure if Russia reciprocated, contradicting Trump’s claim that both sides had already agreed.

Resistance is seen at 110.00, while the nearest support stands at 107.00.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 Tech Index fell 0.82%, to 29,088. It is down 3.03% over four weeks but remains 19.83% higher over 12 months. Trading Economics models and analyst estimates project 28,740 by quarter-end and 26,934 in one year.

Resistance stands at 29,250, while the nearest support is located at 28,850.

Offshore Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH)​

The offshore yuan held near 6.71 per dollar, retreating from a three-year-plus high as Chinese data sent mixed signals. Fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in January–August, the sharpest drop for the period since January–April 2020; retail sales growth slowed to a three-month low of 0.4%, and unemployment rose to a five-month high of 5.3% from 5.2%.

Better news came from house prices, down 3% annually, the smallest fall since December 2025, while industrial output growth accelerated to 5.2% from 4.5%. Fiscal support is increasing after a prolonged decline in public spending, but more stimulus may be needed as growth risks missing the 4.5%–5.0% target for a second straight quarter.

Resistance stands at 6.7170 while the nearest support is located at 6.7000.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin traded at $77,814, down 0.44%. It has fallen 23.86% over four weeks and 33.40% over 12 months. Trading Economics models and analyst expectations point to $77,811 by quarter-end and $87,311 in one year.

First resistance is seen at 78,500, with initial support near 75.500.

 

[Zforex]

Gold and Silver Rebounds Ahead of Fed (09.16.2026)​

The Fed is expected to raise rates 25bp Wednesday, its first hike in roughly three years, as $100-plus oil keeps inflation pressure alive. The BoE is likely to hold Thursday, while markets put the chance of a BoJ hike Friday near 80%. The ECB has already moved, with at least one more hike priced this year.

Brent slipped below $108 after US crude inventories unexpectedly jumped 7.14 million barrels, but Gulf supply disruptions continue to support prices. Saudi loadings remain suspended at Yanbu, while Libya has halted two fields and a pumping station.

Fed expectations have strengthened the dollar, sending the euro toward $1.15, its lowest since mid-August, and pushing the yen beyond 155. For the yen, Friday’s potential BoJ hike could become the next major test.

China’s fixed-asset investment fell 7.2%, retail sales growth slowed to 0.4%, and unemployment rose to 5.3%. Industrial production moved the other way, accelerating to 5.2%, leaving pressure on Beijing to do more as growth risks missing its 4.5%-5.0% target.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Weakens Toward $1.15​

The Euro dropped toward $1.15, reaching its lowest level since mid-August, as a resilient U.S. Dollar pressured major currencies ahead of an anticipated Federal Reserve rate increase. Persistent Gulf conflict has kept crude oil well above $100 per barrel, fueling inflation concerns and triggering sell-offs in long-dated sovereign debt.

Following the European Central Bank's recent rate hike, focus now shifts to key central bank decisions, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1560 while the support starts from 1.1530.

Gold Rebounds Above $4,300​

Gold reclaimed $4,300 an ounce on Wednesday, halting a two-day decline as rallies in crude oil and Treasury yields cooled before the Federal Reserve's policy announcement. Crude eased from multi-month highs following an unexpected U.S. inventory build, though Middle East supply concerns limited losses.

Investors remain focused on central bank decisions, with the Fed widely anticipated to deliver a 25 basis point rate increase, while the Bank of Japan eyes a hike and the Bank of England prepares to hold rates steady.

First resistance is seen at $4350, with initial support near $4260.

Yen Falls Past 155 Mark​

The Japanese Yen weakened past 155 per dollar on Wednesday, dropping for a third consecutive session as a firmer Dollar and rising oil import costs pressured the currency.

Despite the slide, losses were capped by expectations of impending Bank of Japan rate increases, backed by strong August export data driven by AI chip demand. Markets price an 80% probability of a BoJ hike this Friday, with another move expected by January.

First resistance is seen at 156.00, with initial support near 153.80.

GBP/USD Drops Below $1.35​

The British Pound fell below $1.35, touching its lowest level since early August. Stronger U.S. Dollar demand ahead of an expected Federal Reserve rate hike pressured the currency, while the Bank of England is anticipated to maintain rates at 3.75% on Thursday.

Although recent data highlighted the UK's fastest economic expansion in 18 months, surging oil prices amid Middle East conflict complicate the inflation outlook, keeping market expectations aligned for a potential November rate increase.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3530, with support around 1.3450.

Silver Extends Rally Past $64​

Silver advanced above $64 an ounce on Wednesday, gaining for a second consecutive session as momentum in oil prices and bond yields cooled ahead of key central bank decisions. Crude pulled back from multi-month highs following an unexpected U.S. inventory surplus, though ongoing Middle East disruptions limited downside.

Meanwhile, global bond yields stabilized with markets fully pricing a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate hike to curb inflation, while anticipating tightening from the Bank of Japan and a hold from the Bank of England.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $64.80, while support is located around $62,70.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent slipped below $108 a barrel, pulling back from four-month highs after an unexpected surge in US crude inventories challenged the recent upward move. API data showed stocks rising by 7.14 million barrels last week, reversing the previous 300,000-barrel draw and defying expectations for another decline.

Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port has kept oil loadings suspended following the shutdown of the key East-West pipeline, with no clear restart date as Houthi fighters renewed attacks on the kingdom. Libya’s national oil company also halted two fields and a pumping station because of protests, although nationwide production held near 1.4 million barrels per day. Geopolitical tensions extended beyond the Gulf, with Zelenskyy offering to halt attacks on Russian energy infrastructure if Moscow does the same, contradicting Trump’s claim that both sides had already agreed to stop such strikes.

Resistance is seen at 110.00, while the nearest support stands at 107.00.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 Tech Index traded at 29,010, down 0.65%, from the previous close. The index has now fallen 3.29% over the past month, although it remains 19.76% higher over the past year.

Trading Economics’ global macro models and analyst projections put the index at 28,740 by quarter-end and 26,934 within one year.

Resistance stands at 29,500, while the nearest support is located at 28,850.

Offshore Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH)​

The offshore yuan traded around 6.71 per dollar as Chinese data pointed in different directions. Fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in January-August, retail sales growth slowed to 0.4%, and unemployment rose to 5.3%.

Industrial output, however, accelerated to 5.2% from 4.5%, while house prices recorded their smallest annual decline since December 2025. Calls for further stimulus persist as growth risks missing the official 4.5%-5.0% target.

Resistance stands at 6.7170 while the nearest support is located at 6.7000.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin traded at $77,814, down 0.44%, from the previous session. The latest decline adds to a difficult stretch for the cryptocurrency, which has lost 23.86% over the past four weeks and 33.40% over the past 12 months.

Trading Economics’ global macro models and analyst expectations place Bitcoin at around $77,811 by quarter-end and $87,311 in one year.

First resistance is seen at 78,500, with initial support near 75.500.

 

[Zforex]

Fed Hike Sets the Tone for Markets (09.18.2026)​

The Fed delivered its first rate increase since July 2023, unanimously lifting the target range to 3.75%–4.00% and leaving another hike possible before year-end.

Bank of England left rates unchanged but kept the possibility of further tightening open.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Holds Below $1.15​

The euro traded just under $1.15, lingering near its lowest level since late July as the US dollar gained ground after the Federal Reserve's policy decision. The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate to 3.75%-4%, marking its first rate increase since July 2023. This move aims to tame persistent inflation, with officials signaling that an additional rate hike remains possible before the year ends.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1520 while the support starts from 1.1450.

Gold Holds Near $4,380​

Gold traded near $4,380 an ounce on Friday following a 2% gain in the previous session. Falling oil prices helped ease inflation worries and pushed bond yields lower, enhancing the appeal of the non-yielding metal as investors adjusted their market outlooks.

First resistance is seen at $4400, with initial support near $4350.

Yen Depreciates Near 156​

The Japanese yen slipped past 156 per dollar on Friday, trading near a two-week low. Investors remained cautious while awaiting the Bank of Japan's upcoming monetary policy decision, with markets broadly pricing in an interest rate hike.

First resistance is seen at 157.25, with initial support near 155.80.

Pound Holds Below $1.34​

The British pound remained under $1.34, lingering near its lowest level since late July after the Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote. Central bank officials signaled that further monetary tightening might become necessary if escalating Middle East conflict sparks a fresh wave of inflationary pressure.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3420, with support around 1.3330.

Silver Advances Above $66.6​

Silver traded above $66.6 an ounce on Friday following a 3% surge in the prior session. Falling oil prices helped ease inflation worries and lower bond yields, creating a supportive backdrop for non-yielding precious metals as market sentiment improved.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $67.00, while support is located around $64,00.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin traded at 76,578, rising 0.22% from the previous session. Over the past four weeks, Bitcoin has gained 10.65%, while its price remains 33.81% lower than a year ago. Current forecasts indicate the cryptocurrency could reach 77,811 by the end of the quarter and 87,311 over the next year.

First resistance is seen at 78,500, with initial support near 75.500.

Offshore Chinese Yuan​

The offshore yuan strengthened slightly to approximately 6.69 against the US dollar on Friday, following a stable session previously.

China’s ongoing expansion of currency-clearing arrangements reflects its efforts to increase the yuan’s role in international transactions and further advance its global internationalization.

Resistance stands at 6.7070 while the nearest support is located at 6.6900.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 Tech Index traded at 29,386, rising 502 points from the previous session. Since last month, the index has gained 0.13%, while its price has increased 19.33% over the last 12 months.

Forecasts indicate that the US 100 Tech Index could reach 28,740 by the end of the quarter and 26,934 over the next year.

Resistance stands at 29,800, while the nearest support is located at 29,250.

Brent Crude​

Brent crude fell toward $104 per barrel, extending its losses for a third straight session.

The decline came as concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East eased, while expectations increased that diplomatic efforts could help end the conflict and restore energy supplies.

Resistance is seen at 105.00, while the nearest support stands at 102.40.