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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GOLD - Forecast by Anton Kolhanov

Discussion in 'Market Predictions and Reports' started by Anton Kolhanov, Sep 15, 2015.

  1. Anton Kolhanov

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    Thursday forecast
     
  2. Anton Kolhanov

    Anton Kolhanov Recruit

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    FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
    MAIN MARKET MOVERS
    (Wednesday) FOMC Statement + press conference;
    (Wednesday) Crude oil inventories;
    (Friday) EU + US Manufacturing PMI.

    WHAT TO EXPECT?
    Powell will not say directly that FED will decrease % rates and FED will be looking for further economic indicators. So traders will became calm and expecting further economic signals – this will be signal for strong corrections;
    Oil inventories will continue to increase, as market totally oversupplied and oil price will continue downtrend, if we will not have war expansion in Oman bay;
    PMI’s became sideways, so next news will be very important, as if PMI will fall, this will be signal for FED to decrease % rates;

    CONCLUSION
    US Core CPI still over 2% FED target level, where same time PMI much higher 50 points, unemployment on low level, Friday’s retail sales was good. So US economy have all advantages and going well and for June or, probably, July, no any reason for FED to decrease % rates. And it possible that FED will not need to decrease % rates at all, as US economy will continue to go well.
    Same time EU do not have where to decrease % rates and looking on this, US economy now have all advantages over EU, that create potential for downtrend on eur/usd and EU equity market.


    PRICE FORECAST
    EUR/USD
    (Risk of % rates decreasing is falling, US economy is going well)
    1 scenario: from 1.1205 possible correction to 1.1310 and then downtrend to 1.1150 – 1.1110 (or directly from 1.1205);
    2 scenario, if risk for % rates decreasing will increase: from 1.1320 to 1.1455.

    GOLD
    (Risk of % rates decreasing is falling, US economy is going well. Gold trading on the top and need correction, equity market trading on the top, when gold still without correction)
    1 scenario: from 1341 correction to 1346/48, then downtrend to 1328/21;
    2 scenario, if risk for % rates decreasing will increase: from 1360 to 1395 and 1432.

    CRUDE OIL
    (Market strongly oversupplied, inventories will continue uptrend, that will create further pressure on prices, that probably OPEC will no be able to fix in the end of June and totally market have target on $46)
    1 scenario: from 52.50 correction to 54.25/80, then downtrend to 50.60 and after its break down next targets 49.40 and 46.00;
    2 scenario, if we will have war in Oman bay: from 54.80 to 58.20 – 61.40.

    E-mini S&P500
    (FED will say that they need to see further economic conditions before to decrease % rates, that will made market more cold and increase potential for downtrend. VIX do not support further uptrend on equity market)
    1 scenario: from 2895 uptrend continuation to 2910/22 and then downtrend to 2871/75;
    2 scenario, if risk for % rates decreasing will increase: from 2922 to 2947/55.

    E-mini Dow Jones
    (same conditions as ES)
    1 scenario: from 26140 uptrend continuation to 26290/400 and then downtrend to 25890. And if 25890 will be broken down, next target 25530;
    2 scenario: from 26290 to 26525/640.

    E-mini DAX
    (same conditions as ES and YM)
    1 scenario: from 12105 uptrend continuation to 12235 and then downtrend to 12035;
    2 scenario: from 12235 to 12450.
     
  3. Anton Kolhanov

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    Wednesday forecast
     
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    EUR/USD, weekly forecast, July 15 – 19
    The pair is trading along an uptrend with target on 1,1370 and may be expected to continue, while pair is trading above support level 1,1210.
    An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 1,1210, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1,1107

    [​IMG]


    GOLD weekly forecast, July 15 – 19
    The pair is trading along an uptrend with target on 1433 and if it keeps on moving up above that level, we may expect the pair to reach resistance level 1470.
    Downtrend can start from resistance level 1433, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1397 – 1382.

    [​IMG]



    Crude oil weekly forecast, july 15 – 19
    The pair is trading along an uptrend with target on 61,45, 63,10 and may be expected to continue, while pair is trading above support level 59,25.
    An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 59,25, which will be followed by moving down to support level 57,50.

    [​IMG]



    S&P500 weekly forecast, July 15 – 19
    The pair is trading along an uptrend with target on 3050 and may be expected to continue, while pair is trading above support level 3002,45.
    An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 3002,45, which will be followed by moving down to support level 2958.

    [​IMG]
     
  5. Anton Kolhanov

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    EUR/USD, Tuesday forecast, July 16
    The pair is trading along an downtrend with target on 1,1238 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the pair to reach support level 1,1210.
    An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1,1285, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1,1330.
    [​IMG]

    GOLD, Tuesday forecast, July 16
    The pair is trading along an sideways trend between support 1409 and resistance 1418.
    An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 1409, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1403 and 1397.
    An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1418, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1426 and 1433.
    [​IMG]


    WTI Crude Oil, Tuesday forecast, July 16
    The pair is trading along an uptrend with target on 60,45 and uptrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading above support level 59,25.
    An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 59,25, which will be followed by moving down to support level 58,45 and then 57,50.
    [​IMG]
     

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