Euro Forex Pro weekly 02-06 August, 2010

[Sive Morten]

Read your analysis whenever posted and very helpful. When EURUSD sell signals arise, for whatever reason, would you watch USD index for likely strength of USD against other currencies?

Hi Bradley.
Well, the corellation between Dollar Index and EUR/USD is solid. Sometimes, some signals looks clearer on DX rather than on EUR/USD. But at the same time, DX and EUR/USD are not the same.
Other words, I look at both of them, but analyse them seperately. The same signal on DX gives me a bit more confidence during my trade on the same signal on EUR.

Hi Mr. Sive,

Thanks alot, as usual, unusual. You deserve the dignity Mr. Sive for your extraordinary analysis.

Just wanna ask you, USD is currently being beaten by majors, is this can void the down move because USD lost its strength to push lower at daily confluence or monthly pivot area? In case of a SELL signal triggered on 4-hour chart?

Hi Ghazali. Not because USD lost its strength... How to explain in two words...
We're technical traders (at least we discuss technicals right now), and we deal with probabilities. I could say, for example - "Guys 1.3130 strong resistance enter short with 1.2350 target". And may be will become right. But - 1.2750-1.2780 daily Confluence support and monthly Pivot point. And Probability suggest that market should bounce from this area. What kind of bounce it will be - who knows... May be it will move right to 1.35... We do not know. But what we do know - bearish wedge right under K-resistance and XOP. The time to look for sell signals. And 1.2750-1.2780 - strong support. The logic tells me that better enter short and take a profit before 1.2750. Then look what kind of bounce it will be. If it will be just retracement - enter again with B&B target at 1.2350. If it will be reverse up - so, my profit will be in my pocket already...
We have to think logically and according to probability. 1.2350 - is not logical Profit objective - because there are two confluence supports, some different pivot points between current price and 1.2350. Besides, it beyond the oversold price. For me it's not logical now. But it could become logical, may be on the next week.

Hope it helps,
Sive.

 

[Lolly Tripathy]

Thanks

Many Many thanks..

 

[Gilgamesh]

Please tell what XOP, COP etc means

 

[Vitalie]

Please tell what XOP, COP etc means

https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-forum/sive-morten-analysis/10877-glossary.html

here you'll find all the terms Good luck

 

[Ghazali]

Look into Glossary

Please tell what XOP, COP etc means

Hi gilgamesh,

kindly look into the glossary which resides in Sive Morten Analysis Thread

 

[Ghazali]

WOW I got it!!

Hi Sive,

Thanks for your detailed explanation. I got the point. Now im really understood your analysis. We work with possible possibilities TQ Brother...

p/s: Mr.Sive, whenever people here ask regarding the meaning of terms, I point out the glossary link to them( thus would be easier to them since some dont know where to look for the glossary) but that post since it contains URL link it does not posted immediately and the post taken to moderator for verification purposes. Make it short, How to avoid this and how to post the link immediately.

 

[jotazet]

Many thanks

Sive,
Thanks again for your analysis it helps a lot!

 

[Mandrake]

Hi guys,

Last week was really bad for EUR, I only managed to make money on friday which is usually the no trade day for me but entered on crazy up and down market movement to make some scalping trades. Now that important news on EU and US has been released I think there should be some direction for EUR now.

I also think EUR gonna move down since it did not break above all those resistance on Monday. Looking to sell if goes back up to around 1.3, but also looking to buy if it hits weekly pivot and target around 1.3

I think the more predictable direction is down than everyone will starts to believe what most analyst are saying that EUR will come close to parity with USD in time to come; than many will start to bias selling. Plus the entire week's MACD failure and super strong resistance just above market it would be perfect to stop the up move to the next confluence level.

 

[Leong]

Thanks a lot.

 

[karimko]

Thankyousive. where could I get your view on GBP/USD?