Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
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I have only JPY position for now and make a decision concerning Gold tomorrow, I think.
I'm aside on Gold for now.
I'm aside on Gold for now.
European Forex Professional Weekly 2010-02-11
- Thread starter Sive Morten
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Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,673
Looks pretty
I did the same, but my stop 1135, target 1015.
The 4-H chart shows W&R - the same situation on FOREX, I've added GBP short-term position.
In general - I expect today's FOMC minutes and think that they will be bullish for USD. Besides, situation in EU has become even more complicate than it was.
The main risk in Gold - too choppy and sensitive to news, particular in China. So, the overall situation on Gold not so simple/
Ohh master.. you know it, don't you?
Sive,
Gold showing unexpected retracements yesterday and today on hourly charts? What is your opinion?
I was very worried yesterday because
1) First, IMF announced that they will sell 191 tons of Gold but there was almost a %100 retracement back to 1020's and I started thinking that my SL 1127 could be hit.
2) Then in news, It was stated that Goeorge Soros had doubled his gold position.
Today it is again showing a strong retracement... hiked from 1104 to 1112 in an hour..
I think Fed's discount rate decision (which is the main instrument of the central banks to sweep the excess money supply from the market) is very important.
Gold showing unexpected retracements yesterday and today on hourly charts? What is your opinion?
I was very worried yesterday because
1) First, IMF announced that they will sell 191 tons of Gold but there was almost a %100 retracement back to 1020's and I started thinking that my SL 1127 could be hit.
2) Then in news, It was stated that Goeorge Soros had doubled his gold position.
Today it is again showing a strong retracement... hiked from 1104 to 1112 in an hour..
I think Fed's discount rate decision (which is the main instrument of the central banks to sweep the excess money supply from the market) is very important.
Last edited:
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,673
Well, Gold now is a slice and dice game, because it has broken forecasts and expectations, important resistance. This moment is also worried me. The main events - China's foreign reserves and Greece.
China has reduced investments in US Treasuries, and intends to make a restructuring. But what they will buy? Probably some part will be spend on comodities. This is supportive to Gold. Greece problems are also supportive. But growth in USD will make some pressure on Gold. This unpredictability and distortion of expectations about down trend will be very sweet for Big Guys, who will clear all stops until Gold will flow without direction.
In general, i do not worry much about Gold, because it takes very shallow part of my whole positions. But still, situation is very tricky, look:
The IMF said it will begin selling its 191.3 tonnes of bullion from reserves on the open market. The sales will take
place in a “phased manner over time.” Some will be sold in off market transactions. While it will be sold over the
five years of the CBGA agreement, the fact that no central banks have bought it yet is a bit negative.
And
India’s Gold Imports may recover to 500 tonnes in 2010, according to a senior World Gold Council official.
As Mr. Buffett said - if you do not understand who is loosing money on the market right now - then this is you (or something like that).
I recommend you to contract your gold position at the nearest possibility. You will be able to open it again when situation will be more clear for you.
China has reduced investments in US Treasuries, and intends to make a restructuring. But what they will buy? Probably some part will be spend on comodities. This is supportive to Gold. Greece problems are also supportive. But growth in USD will make some pressure on Gold. This unpredictability and distortion of expectations about down trend will be very sweet for Big Guys, who will clear all stops until Gold will flow without direction.
In general, i do not worry much about Gold, because it takes very shallow part of my whole positions. But still, situation is very tricky, look:
The IMF said it will begin selling its 191.3 tonnes of bullion from reserves on the open market. The sales will take
place in a “phased manner over time.” Some will be sold in off market transactions. While it will be sold over the
five years of the CBGA agreement, the fact that no central banks have bought it yet is a bit negative.
And
India’s Gold Imports may recover to 500 tonnes in 2010, according to a senior World Gold Council official.
As Mr. Buffett said - if you do not understand who is loosing money on the market right now - then this is you (or something like that).
I recommend you to contract your gold position at the nearest possibility. You will be able to open it again when situation will be more clear for you.
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