FOREX PRO Weekly, 04-08 June, 2018

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

On daily EUR we do not have significant changes - price is still coiling around 1.17-1.1750 area. Still, overall balance has changed. As longer market stands tight under resistance as more chances on upside breakout attempt.
Now it seems that no other deep retracement will happen and we should treat Friday spike down (on NFP release) as completion of B&B. Sometimes it happens that price doesn't reach B&B target - rare, but happens.

It means that now we need to think about bullish engulfing and its potential target, as upside action could start very soon, I suppose:

On 4-hour chart market stands around 50% Fib level and WPR1. Here we easily could recognize the shape of reverse H&S pattern, although arms are too small for classical H&S - they are probably 1:2 to the head, but this is not disqualifies pattern itself. If our suggestion is correct - the target will stand at 1.1850 and our ceil around daily OB level:

Hourly chart is important for understanding of reasons, why market has more chances to go up right from here. Take a look reaction on NFP - this was rather positive report. But it was able to trigger just minor and short-term spike down. It means that EUR purchases are quite strong. Any hint of retracement is buy out. Market stands dense in tight range of arms of potential H&S - it reminds preparation for breakout:

 

[Robban68]

Hope we will see 1.155/1.16 before it go north. Maybe range play until next week FED decision. Sell the high and buy the low

 

[Stag]

Stag, people ask you for EW view on BTC.
Here we have the thread:
https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/comm...d-to-know-about-blockchain-and-bitcoin.53992/
I put technical view there weekly, on Mondays.
Could you take a look at BTC perspectives by your EW eye , at least briefly.
Thanks.

Hi Sive, no problem.

 

[Stag]

The advance from weekly low may be complete or near to its end (the first leg of a more complex structure). Betting on further advance we can use 1.1688 as working support for higher but the rise seems to be limited to ~1.175. At current stage an impulsive breach of 1.1688 may trigger further drop towards 1.1671 and 1.161x respectively.

We found a bottom at 1.161x and the Euro remained tricky as usual. Prices are still within base channels drawn from 1.161x / May low. On the short term 1.1683 should hold as support for an immediately bullish outlook skyrocketing above 1.1745. If 1.1683 breaks, prices should find bottom somwhere between 1.166x - 1.164x (78.6% retracement level) to keep alive the ongoing bullish recovery.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi everybody,
It seems that our suggestion on upside continuation was correct and EUR indeed now is trying to break 1.1750 major resistance. It means that harmonic swing on daily chart could be doubled again - and market will gravitate to 1.1850 area. We could confirm this target by other tools on intraday charts:

On 4H chart we're mostly watching for H&S perspectives. Now market is struggling with strong resistance - Agreement and WPR1. Next destination point is AB=CD OP @1.1830 that is mostly coincide with double harmonic swing (x4) on daily chart. On a post above Stag has given an analysis and I'm agree. Indeed, drop below 1.1650 will be irrational behavior for H&S and will put it under question. Now market has to show upside breakout to keep bullish scenario valid.

We found a bottom at 1.161x and the Euro remained tricky as usual. Prices are still within base channels drawn from 1.161x / May low. On the short term 1.1683 should hold as support for an immediately bullish outlook skyrocketing above 1.1745. If 1.1683 breaks, prices should find bottom somwhere between 1.166x - 1.164x (78.6% retracement level) to keep alive the ongoing bullish recovery.

On hourly chart right after our yesterday's video EUR has formed nicely looking "222' Buy pattern that has finalized retracement after OP target. Now EUR again stands in "extension" mode, which suggests acceleration (and we see it) and upside breakout of 1.1750. As major retracement already has been done after OP target, any drop back to 1.1650, and especially downside breakout, should be treated as negative and irrational sign. It doesn't match to current market mechanics of H&S pattern.
Thus, if you've taken long position yesterday - move stops to breakeven. Here next target is XOP - mostly it coincides with 4H OP around the same 1.1830 area. Also this probably will be daily 5/8 Fib resistance....

 

[Stag]

We found a bottom at 1.161x and the Euro remained tricky as usual. Prices are still within base channels drawn from 1.161x / May low. On the short term 1.1683 should hold as support for an immediately bullish outlook skyrocketing above 1.1745. If 1.1683 breaks, prices should find bottom somwhere between 1.166x - 1.164x (78.6% retracement level) to keep alive the ongoing bullish recovery.

Prices found a bottom at 1.1652 and we had a swift reversal from there. We can expect a series of minor pullbacks and higher highs towards 1.183 as long as 1.1732 holds as support.

My alternate scenario I'm tracking now warns that a temporary top may be forming around 1.1780. Under this scenario a sudden corrective setback may start from there but should find its bottom around 1.170x (62% retracement) before the advance resumes.

 

[Stag]

Guys, I just wanted to remind you that the EUROPEAN SECURITIES AND MARKETS AUTHORITY DECISION (EU) 2018/796 of 22 May 2018 to temporarily restrict contracts for differences in the Union shall apply from 1 August, 2018 for a period of 3 months.

A study conducted in Q1 2018 based on the data provided by seven investment firms offering CFDs showed that 79,69 % of the clients lost money in 2017. For this reason I think the leverage changes will lead to massive margin close-outs and inreased volatility in July.

 

[Sive Morten]

Greetings everybody,

So, major background for EUR we've discussed already and recent price action adds nothing new - EUR slowly but stubbornly is coming to our target. It means that if you keep long position - think about managing it (close totally at target, or 50% and tight stop on the rest etc.) as we come closer to daily K-resistance area.

On intraday charts we have two targets that stand relatively close to each other. First one is OP on 4H at 1.1830 that also creates an Agreement with daily K-area:

And XOP on hourly chart at 1.1819:

Also take a look that EUR moves avove WPR1 on 4H chart. It means that this action is not a retracement with previous bear trend, but separate bull trend, which suggests that upside action could continue.

Still, as we're coming to strong resistance, we should be ready for pullback down. Now it is difficult to foresee what kind of pullback will be how deep, because we do not have even any reversal pattern been formed. Thus, tomorrow probably we should get something on this sub.

 

[Stag]

Prices found a bottom at 1.1652 and we had a swift reversal from there. We can expect a series of minor pullbacks and higher highs towards 1.183 as long as 1.1732 holds as support.

My alternate scenario I'm tracking now warns that a temporary top may be forming around 1.1780. Under this scenario a sudden corrective setback may start from there but should find its bottom around 1.170x (62% retracement) before the advance resumes.

Greetings guys, our minimum expectation has been already met and prices are apporaching 1.185x, an important level where the advance starting from 1.1510 may build a top. In case of a temporary top any pullback should find a bottom in the 1.178-1.176 region and prices may turn North again towards a new / double top.

I would just add to Sive's excellent analysis that in case of a new bull trend currently any corrective setback should find support above 1.1744 or nearby levels.

 

[anthony egbiwe]

Stag, people ask you for EW view on BTC.
Here we have the thread:
https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/comm...d-to-know-about-blockchain-and-bitcoin.53992/
I put technical view there weekly, on Mondays.
Could you take a look at BTC perspectives by your EW eye , at least briefly.
Thanks.

Mr sive i must say thanks to your wonderful analysis that has been making the market interesting to some of us who are slow learner. I have been folling your text dail for a very long time once i am trading it guides me a lot but i discover that the text does not come in all the time daily. PLEASE ,( i use it for the whole day) let the text accompany the daily video with dates . Thanks.