FOREX PRO Weekly April 18-22, 2011

[Paul McConnell]

Stoploss

Hello Sive.

Anyone who has been checking up on stoploss may have noticed that there are some long time frame market participants who, with endless pockets, do not use a stoploss.
A few weeks ago a very clever trader also told us that he would not use a stoploss but only in the extreme margin.

I remain convinced that markets require to find equilibrium in the center between the extremes of overbought /oversold and that generally a stoploss order is a free ticket instructing your broker to give your cash to the MAN..

For example, please look at USD/JPY. Fukushima notwithstanding ..

However, I do not espouse a total non stoploss and Sive, sorry to detract you from your admirable cause but could you please tell me WTF happened in December 2008 on the Euro/NZD where about 2000 pips went walkabout?
(and came back to equilibrium!) and by the way, what a H/S on the EU/NZD monthly...
Happy Easter All!
God Bless,
Paul

 

[RahmanSL]

Sive, coincidentally about the NZD/USD, I started a Demo account with FXPRIMUS and last 18-Apr-2011 (1822hrs) I received the following in my MT4 trading platform Mailbox:

Mario Sant Singh FTOW (FX Trade of the Week)
China Ups Reserve Ratio Again.
BUY NZD/USD at 0.7865. SL:0.7815 TP1:0.7915 TP2:0.7965

Out of curiosity, I decided to enter a "Buy" trade immediately (in both Demo and on my other Live account) which at that moment was 0.7834 and set TP 0.7915 (as advised). I didn't set the SL.

Well, what do you know! On 20-Apr-2011 (0333hrs) the TP was triggered at 0.7915....though it went on higher to 08037.
Since then, it has been zig-zagging until end of market on Friday settling at 0.8022

I have two Short opened positions at 0.7994 & 0.7961 (with TP at 0.7865) and will see if the retracement will happen on Monday and "market will start to fall like a stone" : )

Thanks for your analysis on different currencies from the normal EUR/USD.

 

[Paul McConnell]

Sive please forgive me for butting in..

Hi Rahman.

I am sorry to butt in but if you would allow me the following observation.
You entered your NZD trade on hearsay from your broker platform and luckily(this time) was proved right.

Time after time Sive reminds us that he is not an oracle but graciously offers us his insights on market behavior and reminds us to carry out our own analysis based on current price action before we enter into a trade.

Current price action on the NZD has not (yet) followed DiNapoli double repenetration so your short is not valid from that perspective.(although possibly, you won't lose)..
And anyway, even if it were the perfect DiNapoli pattern, It is also possible that the market is having a bad hair day and does not conform to our expectation!

As traders it is up to us to learn the patterns, study our (tor)mentor's trading plan and then to analyze the current market conditions prior to our entry.
Otherwise, we follow advice blindly and when we lose we blame outside of ourselves and thus fail to assume responsibility for our trades and if that is the case I promise you, you will lose your pot and will never become a successful trader..
Good luck!
Regards,
Paul

 

[Paul McConnell]

All is not doom and gloom...

If that is the case that we are a kind of a finger pointing and blaming kind of guys, we may take some consolation from the fact that once that we have lost our pots, our favorite brightly colored Hawaiian shirts off our backs, our imitation gold necklaces, our hen-hocks and also our suspect retread tyres from off our trucks, we at least may take some comfort from the fact that at long last, we have also lost our mother in laws

 

[RahmanSL]

Don't be "sorry" for "butting in" Paul : )

Reason I posted the NZD/USD was because I though Sive (since he was touching on this currencies pair) could comment on what would cause that guy from FXPRIMUS Mario Sant Singh (an apparent forex guru) to sent out that signal which turned out to be very accurate.

I took a very small position on that signal and basically to see how it would turn out. The reverse positions taken are are very small positions too and taken as a results of Sive's analysis.

I trade very little currencies for the time being due to too many uncertainties in the financial market and is into metals as silver & gold are much more predictable for now.

Don't worry my friend, after more than 6 total accounts blow out, my days of >100% weekly profits are over...I just grow them more slowly and steadily now : )

All the best!

 

[RahmanSL]

Lost mother-in law??...hehehe...I don't think in my case as she has stuck by us in the days when we (my family) was real down.

Cheers!

 

[Paul McConnell]

Blessings!

I know Rahman that you are in for the long haul.
We shall overcome..
Blessings,
Paul.

 

[BackSpace]

DRPO Sell Success/fail ratio

Dear Sive,

Thanks for the NZDUSD analysis.
Just one question:
What is the succes/fail ratio of a DRPO Sell pattern.
In other words. How often does a DRPO sell pattern lead to a successful completion.

Thanks and Happy Easter,

BackSpace

 

[Sive Morten]

Hello Sive.

Anyone who has been checking up on stoploss may have noticed that there are some long time frame market participants who, with endless pockets, do not use a stoploss.
A few weeks ago a very clever trader also told us that he would not use a stoploss but only in the extreme margin.

I remain convinced that markets require to find equilibrium in the center between the extremes of overbought /oversold and that generally a stoploss order is a free ticket instructing your broker to give your cash to the MAN..

For example, please look at USD/JPY. Fukushima notwithstanding ..

However, I do not espouse a total non stoploss and Sive, sorry to detract you from your admirable cause but could you please tell me WTF happened in December 2008 on the Euro/NZD where about 2000 pips went walkabout?
(and came back to equilibrium!) and by the way, what a H/S on the EU/NZD monthly...
Happy Easter All!
God Bless,
Paul

Hi, guys, sorry for delay, just forgot about this topic...
Paul, it's difficult to say about EUR/NZD, partially, because I do not trade this pair, partially because I do not see particularly what you're talking about.
And I think, that I do not uderstand your question clearly. You've asked about what has happened in EUR/NZD, or what?
May be it was due turmoil with lack of liquidity when EUR has plunged significantly. EU Banks had have to return back liquidity to US, that they borrow from it, so overnight rates has sky rocketed and it was extreme lack of USD.

Sive, coincidentally about the NZD/USD, I started a Demo account with FXPRIMUS and last 18-Apr-2011 (1822hrs) I received the following in my MT4 trading platform Mailbox:

Mario Sant Singh FTOW (FX Trade of the Week)
China Ups Reserve Ratio Again.
BUY NZD/USD at 0.7865. SL:0.7815 TP1:0.7915 TP2:0.7965

Out of curiosity, I decided to enter a "Buy" trade immediately (in both Demo and on my other Live account) which at that moment was 0.7834 and set TP 0.7915 (as advised). I didn't set the SL.

Well, what do you know! On 20-Apr-2011 (0333hrs) the TP was triggered at 0.7915....though it went on higher to 08037.
Since then, it has been zig-zagging until end of market on Friday settling at 0.8022

I have two Short opened positions at 0.7994 & 0.7961 (with TP at 0.7865) and will see if the retracement will happen on Monday and "market will start to fall like a stone" : )

Thanks for your analysis on different currencies from the normal EUR/USD.

Hi, Rahman
Hm, and why not? Probably you've found good signal source. There is nothing impossible with that..Track it for someitme, I hope they will be good.

Dear Sive,

Thanks for the NZDUSD analysis.
Just one question:
What is the succes/fail ratio of a DRPO Sell pattern.
In other words. How often does a DRPO sell pattern lead to a successful completion.

Thanks and Happy Easter,

BackSpace

Hi BackSpace,
Unfortunately it do not track this kind of ratio, mostly because Failed DRPO - directional signal itself. But, Failed patterns are more often on intraday charts,rather than on daily and higher time frames.