FOREX PRO Weekly April 18-22, 2011

[jerry mtini]

amazing

Hi Sive

I've been following your signals for a long time but never posted before. Your signals are just about always "on the ball"! You can't legislate for sudden news events like the Portugese crisis on Monday so Monday's fall was completely unexpected. I lost 100 pips so it it definately caught me by suprise!

Anyway I got it all back today because I knew what you said about the "stop hunt" (stops above 1.4500) would come about about eventually. Greed is what it's all about in this game - as you said!!

Kind Regards

Jerry

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Wed 21, April 2011

Good morning,
Looks like our suspicions about curious reversal during previous trading session on 4-hour time frame has been confirmed and market has taken previous highs.
So, what we gonna do now?

First of all, I suggest you re-read weekly post. If you will do that, you will see that 1.4750 - monthly overbought and 0.88 Fib resistance. That is our target in near term, if market will contunue move up. And will it?

Daily
The most important thing on daily now is combination of price action with red line - MACD Predictor. Although we see that trend is bullish currently - current trading session has not closed yet. But many people already have ate this signal, so as breakout traders and entering on the long side, placing stops somewhere below the market. And they could be punished for their haste.
If market at the end of today's trading session will close below the red line, or do this tommorow by nice black candle. This will be stop grabber pattern, and theoretically it could lead to the lows at "C" point.
If this will not happen and bulls will hold their positions - that's fine. Then, the next target is 1.4650 area - AB-CD target and daily overbought. Possibly this is a nice area to close Longs before long weekend.
Potentially market should reach 1.4950 (if stop grabber will not happen). Due to fast current move up, CD leg is much faster than AB, and usually it leads to farther move up - to 1.27 or even 1.618 extensions (1.4950).
But remember what i've said about monthly resistance...

4-hour chart.
Well, here we can see nice thrust up. At 1.46 level stands resistance of 1.27 extension from previous swing down, so market could show some retracement from there. This thrust could be the potential for DRPO or B&B directionals. One thing that you do not want to see - is moving below 1.4416-1.4433 confluence support and pivot point. So placing stops somewhere below it - looks logical. Very probably that market will show retracement just to 1.4480-1.45 level - Fib support and previous highs.
If market will show DRPO "Sell" pattern and it will start to work - then we are underway to daily Stop grabber.
So, be carefull...

 

[bdux97]

Good morning,
Looks like our suspicions about curious reversal during previous trading session on 4-hour time frame has been confirmed and market has taken previous highs.
So, what we gonna do now?

First of all, I suggest you re-read weekly post. If you will do that, you will see that 1.4750 - monthly overbought and 0.88 Fib resistance. That is our target in near term, if market will contunue move up. And will it?

Daily
The most important thing on daily now is combination of price action with red line - MACD Predictor. Although we see that trend is bullish currently - current trading session has not closed yet. But many people already have ate this signal, so as breakout traders and entering on the long side, placing stops somewhere below the market. And they could be punished for their haste.
If market at the end of today's trading session will close below the red line, or do this tommorow by nice black candle. This will be stop grabber pattern, and theoretically it could lead to the lows at "C" point.
If this will not happen and bulls will hold their positions - that's fine. Then, the next target is 1.4650 area - AB-CD target and daily overbought. Possibly this is a nice area to close Longs before long weekend.
Potentially market should reach 1.4950 (if stop grabber will not happen). Due to fast current move up, CD leg is much faster than AB, and usually it leads to farther move up - to 1.27 or even 1.618 extensions (1.4950).
But remember what i've said about monthly resistance...

4-hour chart.
Well, here we can see nice thrust up. At 1.46 level stands resistance of 1.27 extension from previous swing down, so market could show some retracement from there. This thrust could be the potential for DRPO or B&B directionals. One thing that you do not want to see - is moving below 1.4416-1.4433 confluence support and pivot point. So placing stops somewhere below it - looks logical. Very probably that market will show retracement just to 1.4480-1.45 level - Fib support and previous highs.
If market will show DRPO "Sell" pattern and it will start to work - then we are underway to daily Stop grabber.
So, be carefull...

Dear Sive
I have been in trading and fx analytics 11 years now,yours is perfect,thank you on your effort and due dilligence,keep up your excellent work,best regards adux.

 

[Jyotiprakash Pal]

Is that Correct Sir ..>!~ looks scary! :hissyfit:

 

[Sive Morten]

Is that Correct Sir ..>!~ looks scary! :hissyfit:

Yep, excellent work.
Another target was found around 1.4450-1.45 area

 

[Jyotiprakash Pal]

Yep, excellent work.
Another target was found around 1.4450-1.45 area

Thanks sir ... i am In the boat of bears .. and confident .. another trade i take on AUd/Jpy .. its not harmonic .. Trading the Price action Actually

with a hope someone feel that worth targeting 84.89 3:1

and thanks a lot .. sir .. great learning from you.. and Lessons are amazing . first time i am learning in details! thanks too FPA and You sir

 

[Sive Morten]

NZD/USD Daily Update, April 22, 2011

Good morning,

Today I've decided to show perfect example of potential DRPO "Sell" pattern that is forming on daily time frame but has not been confirmed yet.

This is no sense to talk about EUR today, because financial markets are closed. Although spot Forex shows some vibrations - better to stay flat.
Besides, we will discuss EUR in weekly research again, so let's take a look today at something different.

On weekly chart we see that market stands at some resistance - ABC target, weekly oversold and resisatnce of Butterfly (although it's very probable that market will continue move up in long-term perspective)
So, DRPO is a not a reversal pattern, but just a pattern that could lead to significant retracement. And this is justified by resistance on weekly time frame...

On daily chart we see perfect thrust, with no signs of retracement. It means that participants have not fixed profits yet and that is what we want. Market has shown first close below 3x3 and this retracement was very shallow - that's also perfect, because participants hold their positions. Now they absolutely calm, because market has established new highs. Even more - breakout traders have entered Long.
Where they place their stops? Yes, below B point. We need to see second close below green line - 3x3 DMA to get a confirmation of DRPO. The nearest potential target of DRPO - 0.382 Fib Support and Agreement at 0.7678 (in futures quotes). When market will trigger stops below B point - market will start to fall like a stone and easily could reach our target.
So, let's track this pattern, hope it will be perfect till the profit taking moment

FPA has released new chapters of Forex Military School - very practical, it's very useful to check yourself. You can do it, if math is your friend, of cause
https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-forum/forex-military-school/index2.html

 

[MidnightRun]

Sive, thanks for the analysis and example. Just to doublecheck: the example is kiwi, right?

Thanks again.

 

[Jyotiprakash Pal]

great as usual thanks sir

 

[Sive Morten]

Sive, thanks for the analysis and example. Just to doublecheck: the example is kiwi, right?

Thanks again.

Hi, MidnightRun
Yes, that's right - NZD/USD. But adjust quotes, because I use futures ones.