FOREX PRO Weekly April 18-22, 2011

[Sive Morten]

Sive, I have been reading and 'trying' to follow your advice and have lost almost 2500 Euro :shocked: in the process. Somehow following your advice I seem to buy at a peak and sell at a trough. If I wait for the retrenchment I miss the boat.:embarrassed: I have noticed that your advice is directed towards the European and American market times. I live in Asia and by the time the European markets open it is time to take care of my kids and by the time the Americans get going I am pretty much burned out trying to get two toddlers to sleep and get some exercise in as well.

On the forums here a reply to someone with a similar problem was, slightly rephrased: "Well stay up at night and trade during those hours".

Any change you might add a short section to your analysis on what to do when you start trading in Asia? I really would like to make a profit for once.

And does your analysis take into account current events? The election in Finland for example really hit the Euro this morning. Will that have a long term effect on the EURUSD pair? As I write this Auna's butterfly has in fact materialized and the Euro has so far shed 100 pips and is now stuck at 1.4320 area as opposed to the 1.4420 at 22.00 GMT (Sunday, 17 April).

Hello, Geert
I'm really sorry that my work has led you to loss. Looks like I have to be more caution on recommendations...
Let me start from the bottom of your post.
Plunge on EUR has happened not due Finland elections but to request from Greece to restructure it's debt. It could lead to ECB hiking hints.

Now about application of my work here.
Never ever use it as rule of thumb or some prophecy. Never trade it blindly. I can't forsee appearence of some crucial events or something.
I just share with you with my view on current market. I see the market only at the moment of analysis and can't predict it. Sutuation has a tendency to change as J.M. Keynes once said:"When facts change - I change my mind, and what do you do sir?"
I just want to say, that you should compare what I expect to see (I post it in analysis) and what is happening... If, say, I've said - look at this support, it can hold retracement and try to enter from this level, but market fall like a stone - this is not a retracement...
In weekly research I've said - if market will hold below pivot - dont' be long. Today market stands below pivot all day! It's not the time for buying.
I can't predict and describe each bar on hourly chart...
Besides, I just could be wrong, and it's normal - I'm not a prophet... although I do my best to help you.
Take my view with some suspicion, compare it with your own view.
This is the best approach.

 

[RahmanSL]

Sive, I believe you are faced with the biggest concern of any analyst, which is being taken as a God. Right in everything and can do miracles : )

Followers/Readers of your or any other analyst should bear in mind that you guys are telling it like what your analytical tools are telling you...minus all the other known & unknown variables which can jump right out and wreak havoc on an otherwise "predictable" direction of currencies.

Readers must also must bear in mind that yours is a completely FREE service to all of us, with many hours spent analyzing past, present, & expected market directions.

Do keep up the fantastic job, Sive, as I follow your analysis and, indeed, awaits it eagerly each Sunday, to digest your thoughts on the probable directions of market on Monday.

As at time of this post, I really don't know how anyone can predict the true direction of the EUR/USD. But, I concurred with you that, on the longer term, it is on an uptrend and have taken a bunch of Long positions. I have closed some of them at profits and left 4 positions to run its course (hopefully) to the 1.4400 level.

All the best!

 

[Sive Morten]

Sive, I believe you are faced with the biggest concern of any analyst, which is being taken as a God. Right in everything and can do miracles : )

Followers/Readers of your or any other analyst should bear in mind that you guys are telling it like what your analytical tools are telling you...minus all the other known & unknown variables which can jump right out and wreak havoc on an otherwise "predictable" direction of currencies.

Readers must also must bear in mind that yours is a completely FREE service to all of us, with many hours spent analyzing past, present, & expected market directions.

Do keep up the fantastic job, Sive, as I follow your analysis and, indeed, awaits it eagerly each Sunday, to digest your thoughts on the probable directions of market on Monday.

As at time of this post, I really don't know how anyone can predict the true direction of the EUR/USD. But, I concurred with you that, on the longer term, it is on an uptrend and have taken a bunch of Long positions. I have closed some of them at profits and left 4 positions to run its course (hopefully) to the 1.4400 level.

All the best!

Hi Rahman,
Thanks for support. I hope that forumers will shift the way of treating of my work as advising way rather than as strict trading plan...

 

[RahmanSL]

Sive, there is no doubt that your analytical skill is rock solid...but, we forumers shouldn't expect what your analysis says to be 100% or else you will probably be sitting back somewhere in the Bahamas without a pip worry in the world;right? : )

I notice that all evening, the EUR/USD seems to be "waiting" for something before going in any clear direction...probably waiting for market news...or the market is purposely swinging up & don to knock out ST set by unsuspecting traders.

 

[Joshnix]

Sive,

I for one, hope you keep giving your analysis as detailed as it is. I have been following you for some time, and I was lost until I read Dinapoli levels the week after I started following you. Now it makes sense and I am still learning, using spot and drawing my own fibs and comparing it to your charts is the only way to learn that what you are seeing is correct.​

I don't blindly follow your advice, as sometimes it makes more sense for me to sit on my hands and wait. Please do me and everyone else who follows you a favor and continue with your analysis. You are spot on and no one should want you to hold their hands and walk them through it.

 

[chrisdress]

Hi Sive:

the mistake i have made, not only with your work but other analysts, is that I was looking for the "magic answer"...i would look for the statements that seemed to validate my view of the market and ignore remarks that address other possibilities. The other error i have made is not changing my view when the facts (price action) change...this is where I got hurt financially and psychologically.

I see your work as very comprehensive and dual sided which i REALLY appreciate...many other analysts seem to have a less balanced view.

I continue to greatly appreciate your analysis and utilize it as input to create my trading plan.

Chris

 

[papao]

Now about application of my work here.
Never ever use it as rule of thumb or some prophecy. Never trade it blindly. I can't forsee appearence of some crucial events or something.
I just share with you with my view on current market. I see the market only at the moment of analysis and can't predict it. Sutuation has a tendency to change as J.M. Keynes once said:"When facts change - I change my mind, and what do you do sir?"
I just want to say, that you should compare what I expect to see (I post it in analysis) and what is happening... If, say, I've said - look at this support, it can hold retracement and try to enter from this level, but market fall like a stone - this is not a retracement...
In weekly research I've said - if market will hold below pivot - dont' be long. Today market stands below pivot all day! It's not the time for buying.
I can't predict and describe each bar on hourly chart...
Besides, I just could be wrong, and it's normal - I'm not a prophet... although I do my best to help you.
Take my view with some suspicion, compare it with your own view.
This is the best approach.

Hi Sive, it's the first time i post here, but i'm following your analysis since feb. I'm writing for say to you "thank you!". As RahmanSL said, everybody here should remember that you spend YOUR time for explain us how market works. Your day-by-day analysis is very useful for me (i read the DiNapoli book, and i'm trying to apply it. Then i watch what you said, so i can see if i'm doing it well or not ). Please simply don't care about some complaint (if there is one guy that "accuse" your analysis to be wrong, there are at least 20 other guy that appreciate it).

I was thinking, could you please post us some example of your trade? I mean, from your reviews and videos we can see how do you make the trading plan. And this is great, because we can learn and try to make the same. Also it would be very, very useful and instructive for us seeing you "at work", watching how do you modify the plan in order to adapt it to market development. It could be very interesting to see how do you act when a trade is going to the wrong way (i think taking loss it's very difficult (and unpleasant), especially for a beginner, so there is a serious risk that he "make the loss run and cut the profit"!) and, of course, what you do when you see some new opportunity in different situation of market (when it moves sharply up/down or when it's ranging). Obviously, i can't ask you to do this daily or weekly (maybe once or twice per month? ).

Please excuse me for my bad english and thank you in advance!

 

[georgeta]

AUD

Hello Mr. Morten!
I see that the emotions overflow here. That is not good for trading
What do you think of the AUD. Could it be a DRPO lol on the Daily?
Have a great Spring!

 

[Sive Morten]

Hello Mr. Morten!
I see that the emotions overflow here. That is not good for trading
What do you think of the AUD. Could it be a DRPO lol on the Daily?
Have a great Spring!

Hi Georgeta,
well, not as emotions, as I just try to explain how is better to use my work here...

Yes, it could be... Thrust is excellent. Also pay attention to NZD - there could be B&B or may be DRPO as well.
If they will appear, I think I'll dedicate some daily video to them...

 

[rebarca91]

mr sive your analysis are grate, i use it to learn more of forex, and mine own analysis, are much beter since i am watching yours videos!