FOREX PRO WEEKLY August 11-15, 2014
- Thread starter Sive Morten
- Start date
eurusd insight
As said, I followed Flat correction in Flat correction..was wrong in last post, apologize, I said I expected harmonic, well this can not be if this is wave c, omly motive wave is possible and so far looks like an impulse with target exceeding LL, for a tick or more BUT should not touch 1,33043 or I will start to think this is 1st ZZ (w) of 3ED and will change my mind that 1,39924 is really top and not 1,38924 as I think currently..
I will be watching how move up will start and unfold and then decide if we will make more correction or we really go to set bF in place above 1,3747..
Looking across the board have a feeling that only eurusd and usdchf are targets to fulfill..rest of them are on the edge, as both mentioned..so, normaly I expect change of direction BUT if something geopolitical burst, then we might be in freefall..
Good trading!
As said, I followed Flat correction in Flat correction..was wrong in last post, apologize, I said I expected harmonic, well this can not be if this is wave c, omly motive wave is possible and so far looks like an impulse with target exceeding LL, for a tick or more BUT should not touch 1,33043 or I will start to think this is 1st ZZ (w) of 3ED and will change my mind that 1,39924 is really top and not 1,38924 as I think currently..
I will be watching how move up will start and unfold and then decide if we will make more correction or we really go to set bF in place above 1,3747..
Looking across the board have a feeling that only eurusd and usdchf are targets to fulfill..rest of them are on the edge, as both mentioned..so, normaly I expect change of direction BUT if something geopolitical burst, then we might be in freefall..
Good trading!
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,708
Yes, Cosmos - that's the problem of FX market. You have as much close prices as brokers exist.
It needs to be checked on futures market... but currently I have no software to do this.
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,708
This charts were from Reuters datastream. Right now CME EURO NON_COMM LONGS are 53889, Shorts - 186916. The major Idea is that not absolute number important, but relative ammount of shorts. Thus, 186916/(186916+53889)*100%=77.62% - has increased for 5% since our recent discussion. The edge level (not just for EUR) stands around 80-82% when odds of reversal increases significantly.
What I would like to say that - look at relative numbers, build COT Strength index, but not only on absolute values...
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,708
Hi Minimax. Here is the Course, just find sentiment and COT chapters there...
https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-forum/forex-military-school-complete-forex-education-pro-banker/
eurusd insight
my opinion to Kleinerbroker´s post in Weekly Sive's sentiment index poll August 11-15 week 2014
Usually market respects wave structures but sometimes I think it does not, or I do not read it right.
eurusd should not drop a lot more, especially if flat is in play, there is 1,3304 which should not be broken..if ED is in play then we might go lower..3rd determines the lenght of 5th (if longer/shorter than 1st; in this case 1st is very long and I hardly expect 3rd will be longer but not impossible)..
Nato - Russia conflict impacts on development, and all other issues too, that is why I think we have so many ups&downs lately..
I do not expect converging ED because of the structure so far..
If diverging ED I see it so, well lenghts of waves can not fortell...
If Flat..
In chart I have an option that LL is in place but there might be a tricky option of triangle as 4th and we really could get one more deep but limited..to upside E as 4th is limited with 1,34315..above would mean very probably 5th is in place..in case we are in ED 5th what is also possible, we should get 2 more LLs..hmhm..more sideways with downside power but limited also with 1,3304..
BUT&IF..instead of 1ED and/or aF there might be 1st of an impulse weekly...then we are full bearish..
Good trading!
my opinion to Kleinerbroker´s post in Weekly Sive's sentiment index poll August 11-15 week 2014
Usually market respects wave structures but sometimes I think it does not, or I do not read it right.
eurusd should not drop a lot more, especially if flat is in play, there is 1,3304 which should not be broken..if ED is in play then we might go lower..3rd determines the lenght of 5th (if longer/shorter than 1st; in this case 1st is very long and I hardly expect 3rd will be longer but not impossible)..
Nato - Russia conflict impacts on development, and all other issues too, that is why I think we have so many ups&downs lately..
I do not expect converging ED because of the structure so far..
If diverging ED I see it so, well lenghts of waves can not fortell...
If Flat..
In chart I have an option that LL is in place but there might be a tricky option of triangle as 4th and we really could get one more deep but limited..to upside E as 4th is limited with 1,34315..above would mean very probably 5th is in place..in case we are in ED 5th what is also possible, we should get 2 more LLs..hmhm..more sideways with downside power but limited also with 1,3304..
BUT&IF..instead of 1ED and/or aF there might be 1st of an impulse weekly...then we are full bearish..
Good trading!
gbpusd insight
I find gbpusd veryvery naughty!! Exceeding 1,70416 high from August 5th 2009 and pulling back down as Monthly swing!! I really do not like myself being so bullish but I think I am right!
I think we are in converging ED with Flat as 2ED and we should get 2 more HHs..LL of 2ED could OR not be in place..
Below 1,64589 my attitude would change and will start selling rallies..
Good trading!
I find gbpusd veryvery naughty!! Exceeding 1,70416 high from August 5th 2009 and pulling back down as Monthly swing!! I really do not like myself being so bullish but I think I am right!
I think we are in converging ED with Flat as 2ED and we should get 2 more HHs..LL of 2ED could OR not be in place..
Below 1,64589 my attitude would change and will start selling rallies..
Good trading!
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