1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

FOREX PRO Weekly August 13-17, 2012

Discussion in 'Sive Morten- Currencies and Gold Video Analysis' started by Sive Morten, Aug 11, 2012.

  1. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2009
    Messages:
    11,488
    Likes Received:
    14,887
    Monthly
    Monthly trend holds bearish. Price continues to force significant support area 1.19-1.23 that held EUR twice from collapse – first time in 2008 when sub-prime crisis has started and second – in 2010 at beginning of Greece turmoil.
    Actually, it is difficult to add something to previous analysis, since price action stands in a tight range. At least currently August stands as inside month to July. Minimum target still is 1.16-1.17 area, based on analysis of quarterly chart of Dollar Index that we’ve made in Nov 2011. Index has 95% correlation with EUR/USD. Also this is AB=CD target of most recent pattern on current chart. Also take a look – this is significant support of 2005 as well – marked by yellow rectangle.
    Nearest Fib resistance is 1.2593, stronger area is monthly K-resistance 1.2934. In short-term perspective some bounce to 1.25-1.26 area looks possible. Last two candles have longer shadows, so it shows that support still presents here, despite solid piercing of this area in 2010.
    In longer-term market is entering into very, say, “dangerous” area, and it comes to it not at oversold as it was two times previously. If it will break it – this will be the road to 1.07-1.10 area or ultimately even to parity.

    [​IMG]

    Weekly
    Here I left some important thoughts from previous research, so we can track how situation is changing:
    “…Here I would like to discuss couple of moments that we haven’t touched in previous researches. First of all – take a look at overall price move inside downward parallel channel. During previous bottoms, when price touched low border of the channel there were no divergences. Also we do not see any reversal patterns, when these bottoms were reached. Second moment is – market did not start move to upper border prior of reaching lower one first.
    Now take a look at current price action – we have all these signs that weren’t here previously. We have divergence, although it is not quite completed yet, we have butterfly “buy” pattern at long-term 50% monthly support and we see that market is showing attempt to do upward retracement before reaching of lower border of the channel. What conclusion could be made from all this stuff?
    Well, one part of puzzle is still absent, I think. I’m speaking about depth of current retracement. If you will take a close look at weekly chart, you’ll see that appearing some kind of bullish wedge or 3-Drive pattern is still possible. By completing of this pattern, market precisely will reach lower border and will continue movement inside of channel. But for that purpose current retracement should stop around 1.2550 area. If this will not happen, then all factors that we just have specified will come in play, and retracement could be deeper.”

    So, I have to say, that weekly chart is most interesting now. Look – we have some contradiction between potential 3-Drive, that theoretically should push market to lower border of channel, and bullish engulfing pattern. Recall, that minimum target of engulfing pattern is a length of the bars. So, if you will count it to upside – that will be around 1.2550-1.26 area and MPR1. If this really will happen, then, take a look at the chart – this could lead to reverse H&S pattern and deeper retracement to 1.30 K-resistance on weekly/monthly time frames.
    Another significant thing has changed here – trend has turned bullish, that’s not a stop grabber on weekly chart. So, it seems that our major attention will be on major 5/8 support on daily time frame, because bears will need to break it to return control over market and shift trend to bearish again. But bulls have solid counter argument here – butterfly “Buy”, Bullish engulfing pattern, bull trend as weekly as daily and finally, Fib support on daily chart.
    [​IMG]
    Daily
    So, here we finally come to daily time frame. As we’ve said above, our major interest here is upward retracement and major 0.618 support at 1.2195 area. What bulls’ advantages can we see here? First of all, this is upward strong moves. Take a look both move up was fast, by strong white candles and both times it was stop by daily overbought, although this could happened occasionally. Second, take a look at MACD indicator – inside of say, “wedge” pattern we do not see any divergence as by simple MACD as by Histogram (because distance between MACD lines is greater at second top inside the wedge). That is not typical for reversal pattern.
    What about bears? Market stands below monthly pivot point. Current WPP stands almost in the same range. Also take a look WPS1 will add support to major Fib level. Well, may be you will not agree, but looks like bulls position look preferable, at least buyers still should have some power for another one push up. Speaking about potential targets, it could be as AB=CD from initial swings as most recent AB=CD, if we suggest that current move down is BC leg. In this case market could reach as 1.25 area as 1.2565. Although latter one is more close to weekly number – it is beyond overbought currently, so let’s orient first at former. Even move to 1.25 will not be bad, right?

    [​IMG]
    4-hour
    Trend here is bearish. On previous week we chewing this area and said that this is nice level to enter long, since its breakout will put under question bullish perspectives. This moment is easy to explain. Usually market could show deep pullbacks either from significant resistance areas or after reaching significant target. Here we do see neither former nor latter. Current pullback could be justified only by overbought condition. That’s why move lower could be looked as suspicious. Right at current level we also have to different expansion targets - AB=CD that I’ve drawn and 1.618 from AB-CD on top. So, that is also an Agreement. This level should hold, if bulls are still in charge.
    On Friday we agreed to look for reversal patterns here and if we will see any – try to enter long.
    [​IMG]

    15-min
    Today we will take a look at 15-min chart, since it better shows neccesary information. So, we have everything – bullish trends on higher time frames, strong support at 4-hour chart and reversal pattern right at this level on 15 min chart. Hence, it will be easier to judge about bulls’ failure. So, market has formed Butterfly “buy” – that was our possible scenario for yesterday. If you again have skept this entry, here is another chance. Market has shown solid swing up, that is greater than previous swing down. That is short-term reversal price action. Usually when market shows such reversals after long bear trend, it shows deep retracement. Rule of thumb is to buy first AB-CD retracement after reversal swing. This will give us an Agreement with 0.618 support at 1.2270-1.2275 area. Stop should placed below butterfly’s low. If all this stuff will fail and market will break it down – be ready for revolutionary regime change – bears could return control over the market.
    P.S. Take a look at excellent evening star pattern...
    [​IMG]




    Conclusion:
    Long-term bearish sentiment is still in play. At the same time situation on weekly chart looks dubiously. If bulls will push market to 1.26 area – this could lead for further continuation to 1.30. If not, and price will break 1.2190 support area, then downward move will be more probable in a row with potential weekly 3-Drive “Buy” pattern. So, we can say that current week is important for medium term perspective.
    In shorter-term frame market has done everything for upward continuation: weekly and daily trends are bullish, market stands at intraday K-support, no divergence and has formed reversal pattern at 15-min chart. That gives us nice foundation and easy possibility to catch bullish failure. If this construction will fail, then, I suppose, that it will put start for downward scenario. If you still would like to take part in upward action (if it will happen at all) – look for 1.2270 as potential entry level.




    The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
     
  2. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2009
    Messages:
    11,488
    Likes Received:
    14,887
    EUR/USD Daily Update, Tue 14, August 2012

    Good morning,
    our trading plan for Monday has worked well - price has started upward move from 1.2260 area and bulls have held the market above 4-hour K-area.

    On daily time frame we see price action in some sort of parallel channel - 2 steps forward/1step back. But what is more important - this move stands without divergences. This tells that bulls still have power to push EUR higher. Our nearest target is 1.25, next one is 1.2550 (They are from two AB=CD patterns). Also pay attention to WPR1, that also could be some sort of barrier.

    on 4-hour chart trend is bullish as well. Here you can just clearer see the same things - AB=CD pattern, channel and some Fib extensions from retracement that point on the same levels.

    On hourly chart is our working swing. So, if you stil have no long position you may work with it. Although market has shown 3/8 retracement, but if it will turn to AB=CD, then you may try to enter Long around K-support and WPP.
    Better do not wait deep retracement, since we have bull trend on all time frames and no overbought, no significant resistance levels right now. So better to use nearest retracements for scale-in and entering.
    One thing that we do not want to see is return right back and channel breakout. This will be wrong price action from bullish point of view and will indicate that they are loosing control over market. No significant pullback should happen, till 1.25 area
     

    Attached Files:

    #2 Sive Morten, Aug 11, 2012
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2012
  3. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2009
    Messages:
    11,488
    Likes Received:
    14,887
    EUR/USD Daily Update, Wed 15, August 2012

    Good morning,
    currently market looks heavy, that makes me worry for bullish perspective. So, if you have Long positions - it's better to tight stops or even move them to breakeven.
    Yesterday market has shown almost inside trading session for Monday and close below MPP and WPP. This is not logical in current situation, because actually market has no barriers ahead, price has tested already significant support area.
    Previous retracement down on 4-hour chart was a bit deeper than it should be. So, normal bullish price action suggests upward continuation, but we do not see it now.

    So, our major attention today should be focused on channel support line and major 0.618 fib support. If market will return back to 4-hour K-support area - that will be an early bell of downward intention. Other words, any action, except upward acceleration should be treated as early sign of downward continuation and approaching to an end of upward retracement in a long-term bear trend.

    Still, it is a bit early to speak about short entry - we do not have any clear bearish patterns and bullish trends on daily and weekly time frames. Looks like we will have to take a pause for 1-2 days until situation will become clearer.
     

    Attached Files:

    #3 Sive Morten, Aug 11, 2012
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2012
  4. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2009
    Messages:
    11,488
    Likes Received:
    14,887
    Good afternoon, everybody
    sorry for delay with update...

    Yesterday price action was not really impressive. We've announced some suspicious about bullish perspectives of price action, since reversal at point where it has happened looks curious and non-typical for normal price action.

    Today we see that market continues attempt to break through support line of the channel and shift trend to bearish. As usual - potential stop grabber on daily is a moment that worthy to monitor.
    Speaking about other moments is not so interesting, since market still struggling with K-support on 4-hour chart. Although second upward move of retracement could be treated as large simmetrical triangle - overall price move is not very attractive, especially now.

    So, my thought is - better to wait a bit. Since long entry is not as attractive as it was in the beginning of the week. Market stands below pivots and has shown unnatural reversal. May be if we will get bullish stop grabber tomorrow - that will improve chances.

    Enter short is a bit early, since price still stand at support and struggle with it. Besides, tomorrow you can appear on wrong side in case of stop grabber.
     

    Attached Files:

    #4 Sive Morten, Aug 11, 2012
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2012
  5. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2009
    Messages:
    11,488
    Likes Received:
    14,887
    EUR/USD Daily Update, Fri, August 2012

    Good morning,

    Sometimes pacience is a gold, guys. Just couple days ago we've said that current reversal is not quite natural for bullish development and yesterday we've decided to take a pause, since situation was really tricky. So what do we have today?

    Right - stop grabber on daily as a part of right wing of butterfly "Sell". Beyond of these moments we also have - bull trend on daily and price above both pivots. If we've entered short yesterday - today we appear on wrong side of the market.

    So, since Stop grabber is a self-sufficient pattern we could trade it per se, especially if overall context confirms it.

    On 4-hour chart trend has turned bullish either. Here you can see butterfly with details. 1.27 extension stands at 1.2505 while 1.618 around 1.2570 - the same area of recent daily AB=CD pattern and 1.618 target of previous retracement down.

    On houlry chart we see our working swing. To enter long we need to use nearest retracement, since market is not at overbought and at any resistance. Probably 1.2330 + WPP is nice area to search for Long entry.

    What we do not want to get - erasing of stop grabber bar and move below its low. IF this will happen - stop grabber pattern will fail and, probably, daily trend will shift bearish again.
     

    Attached Files:

    #5 Sive Morten, Aug 11, 2012
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2012
  6. Lolly Tripathy

    Lolly Tripathy Master Sergeant

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2010
    Messages:
    493
    Likes Received:
    238
    Thank you very much sive sir
    Wish you a great weekend..

    Hi friendsssss....
    wish you all a great weekend..
    :)
     
  7. Triantus Shango

    Triantus Shango Sergeant Major

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2011
    Messages:
    1,372
    Likes Received:
    15
    because

    1- the pip value is higher;
    2- the volatility seems to be higher than e/u on avg, which gives you more opportunities to scalp on short time frames (TFs).


     
  8. BeeKay8

    BeeKay8 Sergeant

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2012
    Messages:
    208
    Likes Received:
    13
    Hey Sive,

    Could this also be a 3-drive sell pattern on the daily?

    First retracement of 3-drive has hit 61.8 support, then hit 127.2 resistance, and bounced back down to 61.8 support which is at 1.2260.

    Everything looks symmetrical and has hit all targets. Next target is 127.2 resistance which is at 1.2490 and coincides with daily k-resistance. The 61.8 support we are at now also coincides with 4hour k-support.

    What are your thoughts?

    Cheers!


    3drive.
     
  9. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2009
    Messages:
    11,488
    Likes Received:
    14,887
    Hi Beekay,
    it might be, why not. The one thing that is not very typical for 3-Drives is an abcense of divergence. But from harmonic point of view, it could be 3-Drive, although I prefer 3-Drives in the same direction as previous trend, since this is exhausting pattern in most cases.
     
  10. MidnightRun

    MidnightRun Sergeant

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2007
    Messages:
    186
    Likes Received:
    1
    Triantus,
    Did you get any reply from Craig regarding access to his charts (at least I cannot access the charts - what I get is "Waiting for presenter" message).
    Thanks
     

Share This Page