FOREX PRO Weekly December 05-09, 2011

[Triantus Shango]

Watch out previous low on H4 around 1.3330. If market will break this area, then we can talk about shorting as Sive said on update. May we watch the movies with peaceful after that?

yes but sive's time frame is longer than a scalper's time frame.... so if we want to play really short term, i guess we have to watch out for intraday signs such as on H4:

- since the large down candle from 3520 on 12.2, every time the market retraced up it was lower high, twice now.
- today's drop on H4 started at a lower level from the previous high at 4670
- so.... if that bearish pressure continues, and the 61.8% i mentioned before gives way, well then... we should get something that looks like this 3-drive i posted... whether or not it is a 3-drive...
- also market is holding below the daily pivot now...

i don't see any other SPPT level around 3375-3385.... so why would the market bounce significantly back up from here? unless so crazy market moving macro news hits the wire, the signs seem to point down on TFs higher than M15.

yes? no?

 

[rashidin5178]

Guys,

Watch out on H4. Bull trend turnaround (MACD) in the making. Bear still leading.... still comfortable with my short position.
Thanks and Best Regards.

 

[Triantus Shango]

Guys,

Watch out on H4. Bull trend turnaround (MACD) in the making. Bear still leading.... still comfortable with my short position.
Thanks and Best Regards.

hold on. what are you saying? that the trend is turning bullish on H4?

 

[Triantus Shango]

H1 and H4 just entering the oversold zone... still plenty of room to drop into... what gives? why this sluggishness? why is the market hesitating? is this where the monster short squeeze will start?

 

[rashidin5178]

hold on. what are you saying? that the trend is turning bullish on H4?

No dude. What I mean, trend try to shift to bullish but it is not long...maybe 1 or 2 bar only..then change to bearish again but not confirm yet cause we have to wait current bar close first. In my observation, this scenario normally told us that the change of sentiment from previous thought and this is very dangerous sometimes cause price intend to explode to a new trend. It is like you want to take this direction but immediatley change your mind and take another path.
If it turn back to previous trend then maybe it tell us market indecision and beware of breakout. But this is purely my humble view on the market.

Thanks and Best Regards.

 

[Triantus Shango]

No dude. What I mean, trend try to shift to bullish but it is not long...maybe 1 or 2 bar only..then change to bearish again but not confirm yet cause we have to wait current bar close first. In my observation, this scenario normally told us that the change of sentiment from previous thought and this is very dangerous sometimes cause price intend to explode to a new trend. It is like you want to take this direction but immediatley change your mind and take another path.
If it turn back to previous trend then maybe it tell us market indecision and beware of breakout. But this is purely my humble view on the market.

Thanks and Best Regards.

thanks rashidin. i see what you mean now. although all my signals on H4 are bearish, i can see the possible squeeze in progress.... me not like it, not at all.

i wonder... why would all those fools whose size is much larger than retail traders (hedge funds, real money, macro funds, etc...) suddenly start getting bullish? i can't figure it out. don't their signals also point lower? and if not, what i'd like to know is: where the hell do they see a bullish signal? sive, any thoughts on this?

 

[rashidin5178]

Also just look at MACD on H4. It show you trend shift rejection or trend shift failure. Price start to change the trend on Dec. 04th until Dec. 05th but failed to do it. You can see MACD try to cross to the upside but then change the direction to the downside. You can check out how price behave after that, almost 150pips down. But again this is purely my poor view on market. Maybe Sive can explain more better.

Thanks and Best Regards.

 

[Triantus Shango]

furthermore, on M5, M15, and H1, the price is still walking the lower bollinger band (low-BB). it is usually highly unlikely that the price would do a 180 reverse when walking the band unless a key level has been hit or some crazy ass CB intervention happens or an asteroid hits the earth or some macro shock occurs lehman style.

as i am writing this, on H4 price is starting to resume walking the low-BB too. so... i say down we go.

 

[Triantus Shango]

Also just look at MACD on H4. It show you trend shift rejection or trend shift failure. Price start to change the trend on Dec. 04th until Dec. 05th but failed to do it. You can see MACD try to cross to the upside but then change the direction to the downside. You can check out how price behave after that, almost 150pips down. But still this is my poor view on market. Maybe Sive can explain more beter.

Thanks and Best Regards.

ah yes right i see that. when price changed from up to down like you said, that is C of AB=CD, i put on the chart i posted earlier. so this is definitely a bearish signal.

unless some non-technical shock occurs in the next couple of hours, market should be heading down then, right?

 

[Triantus Shango]

also, couldn't one argue that there barely was any follow-through after that huge up candle from last week and that therefore bullish pressure has eased significantly, further reinforcing the technical indicator signals to the downside?