FOREX PRO WEEKLY January 16-20, 2012

Q-Rick

Private, 1st Class
Messages
47
Sive, thanks again for sharing all your research and expertise. You're a very generous man.
Would you please comment your thoughts on the "PERCEIVED" INVERSE H&S pattern on the monthly chart as market forms RIGHT shoulder & while doing so:
#1: Intersects with uptrend line support from 2000/2010 lows,
#2, Accomplishes AB CD & ab cd,
#3, Divergerges with MACD

Thanks in advance for your comments.daily macd divergence.jpginverse h&s (percieved).jpg
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,867
Hi Sive,

Well thanks to your on going mentoring you have changed my life!!! As i am in Cyprus. and this is a secluded spot i found on top of a mountain near a place called Lefke. I had just closed my 2 small positions on a short :)) As i call this my new working office!!
Its has given me the confidence that if you follow your plan with good risk management you can have a great life stlye!!!

I sincerly hope as some of the regulars Triantus comes to my mind first and the others we call ourselves THE MORTEN TRADERS Can maybe at some point get together,You are most welcome and would be our HONURY ROYAL VIP GUEST...

Thank you doesn't seem enough as for me personally i am getting consistent and the odd mistake i make is not a huge blow due to good risk management.
I will post a few more photos as i am going to a nice place next week,as i was due back to London today but have postponed till maybe next month...

Best and warm regards Sive :)))))
Thank you Asif for invitation, this is really pleasure to hear it.
I like this idea getting all together, but will it be possible to all of us gather at the same time in the same place? The point is that FPA assistance is just , say, some kind "sub-job" for me. Job with Bank takes a lot of time.

Sive, thanks again for sharing all your research and expertise. You're a very generous man.
Would you please comment your thoughts on the "PERCEIVED" INVERSE H&S pattern on the monthly chart as market forms RIGHT shoulder & while doing so:
#1: Intersects with uptrend line support from 2000/2010 lows,
#2, Accomplishes AB CD & ab cd,
#3, Divergerges with MACD

Thanks in advance for your comments.View attachment 4630View attachment 4631
Hi Rick,
the first and most important note, if you let me, is that reverse H&S never forms at tops. Reverse H&S is a bullish reversal pattern.
But if even we will take a look at this pattern despite of this fact, I still do not like it much, since shoulders are neither 1.27 nor 1.618 from the head. I prefer to see harmony in H&S pattern. Shoulders here almost the same length as head, that is not natural.
Probably it better treat as some kind of wide consolidation, or something like that.
 

Banco

Recruit
Messages
5
Twitter

Hi Sive Ivalue your inputs. Thanks for the effort.

Are you on Twitter as well during the day? I have searched but could not find an indication that you were there.

Good luck and thanks again.
 

papao

Private, 1st Class
Messages
74
Another view on downgrade

Hi Sive (and everybody, of course!). I could never tell you how much i appreciate your effort in educating us.
I just want ask you an opinion on my personal view.
From technical point of view, last week we were also waiting for some clues for the starting of an upside retracement. I attach a chart that shows a potential reversal pattern (bullish divergence, on d1). (uhm..it's quite the same posted by q-rick).
I was watching also the commitment of traders. From these data we can see that "large traders" (the "smart money", and there should be a reason for that name :-D) last week were more short than ever in the eur/usd pair. This week they are even more short. This suggest me that, first or later, they will take some profit, and covering their short position they will push up the euro currency.
The downgrade of european country that we saw friday, is happend at the right moment (and this is, as you said, "curious" :-D). While the euro was starting a retracement up, due to some good news, the downgrade pushed the euro down again, giving the possibility (to large traders) of covering position at a better price (and without pushing up the market). Obviously, as we are technical traders, we can't go long right now, we need some confirmation from the price action. But still, this might be a context for the mid-term.
Does this make sense?
 

Attachments

BrokerMe

Recruit
Messages
4
eur/usdll

Thanks sive for your analysis, but I still consider a great downwards tendency on euro weakness, as far as 1,24.

January is bein a hard month and appart from your di napoli's you must take into consideratin the political calendar from now to the end of the month.
 

Simbasimba

Recruit
Messages
3
Thank you Sive. really appreciate your effort in making the video and text. Guys tmrw will be holidaY for US, thus wonder if there will be big moves..
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,867
Hi Sive (and everybody, of course!). I could never tell you how much i appreciate your effort in educating us.
I just want ask you an opinion on my personal view.
From technical point of view, last week we were also waiting for some clues for the starting of an upside retracement. I attach a chart that shows a potential reversal pattern (bullish divergence, on d1). (uhm..it's quite the same posted by q-rick).
I was watching also the commitment of traders. From these data we can see that "large traders" (the "smart money", and there should be a reason for that name :-D) last week were more short than ever in the eur/usd pair. This week they are even more short. This suggest me that, first or later, they will take some profit, and covering their short position they will push up the euro currency.
The downgrade of european country that we saw friday, is happend at the right moment (and this is, as you said, "curious" :-D). While the euro was starting a retracement up, due to some good news, the downgrade pushed the euro down again, giving the possibility (to large traders) of covering position at a better price (and without pushing up the market). Obviously, as we are technical traders, we can't go long right now, we need some confirmation from the price action. But still, this might be a context for the mid-term.
Does this make sense?
Hi Papao,
Well, I do not rely much on divergences, just one example for you - the same divergence to the left - it has failed. Usually I use it as additional pattern but never as major pattern.
Speaking about COT - yes it makes sense, but you have to calculate oversold and overbought conditions properly. Properly means that we must pay attention not to absolute number, but to relative % value of total shorts positions. Since, this is important. THere will be the chapter dedicated to COT report in our Military School.
I'm not sure about relation of S&P action with interest to close shorts, this sounds a bit fantastic, but COT itself important
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,867
Hi Sive Ivalue your inputs. Thanks for the effort.

Are you on Twitter as well during the day? I have searched but could not find an indication that you were there.

Good luck and thanks again.
Hi Banco,
No, my principle is to not have any accounts in Twitter, Facebook, LJ and others.
 

Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
Messages
1,372
sive, couldn't agree more w/ your take on rating agencies. however, if a weaker EUR serves the US, it also serves european exporters, doesn't it? ;-) then it seems like S&P is helping both sides for now.

asif, georgeta, sounds like a plan... however will have to ask the mrs's permission first ;-)

good luck all. can't wait for tomorrow to see whether mr market will go up or down.
 

papao

Private, 1st Class
Messages
74
thank you sive for your quick answer. I'll be waiting for the COT chapter in your school :)
 
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