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FOREX PRO WEEKLY January 16-20, 2012

Discussion in 'Sive Morten- Currencies and Gold Video Analysis' started by Sive Morten, Jan 14, 2012.

  1. Q-Rick

    Q-Rick Private, 1st Class

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    Sive, thanks again for sharing all your research and expertise. You're a very generous man.
    Would you please comment your thoughts on the "PERCEIVED" INVERSE H&S pattern on the monthly chart as market forms RIGHT shoulder & while doing so:
    #1: Intersects with uptrend line support from 2000/2010 lows,
    #2, Accomplishes AB CD & ab cd,
    #3, Divergerges with MACD

    Thanks in advance for your comments. daily macd divergence. inverse h&s (percieved).
     
  2. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Thank you Asif for invitation, this is really pleasure to hear it.
    I like this idea getting all together, but will it be possible to all of us gather at the same time in the same place? The point is that FPA assistance is just , say, some kind "sub-job" for me. Job with Bank takes a lot of time.

    Hi Rick,
    the first and most important note, if you let me, is that reverse H&S never forms at tops. Reverse H&S is a bullish reversal pattern.
    But if even we will take a look at this pattern despite of this fact, I still do not like it much, since shoulders are neither 1.27 nor 1.618 from the head. I prefer to see harmony in H&S pattern. Shoulders here almost the same length as head, that is not natural.
    Probably it better treat as some kind of wide consolidation, or something like that.
     
  3. Banco

    Banco Recruit

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    Twitter

    Hi Sive Ivalue your inputs. Thanks for the effort.

    Are you on Twitter as well during the day? I have searched but could not find an indication that you were there.

    Good luck and thanks again.
     
  4. papao

    papao Private, 1st Class

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    Another view on downgrade

    Hi Sive (and everybody, of course!). I could never tell you how much i appreciate your effort in educating us.
    I just want ask you an opinion on my personal view.
    From technical point of view, last week we were also waiting for some clues for the starting of an upside retracement. I attach a chart that shows a potential reversal pattern (bullish divergence, on d1). (uhm..it's quite the same posted by q-rick).
    I was watching also the commitment of traders. From these data we can see that "large traders" (the "smart money", and there should be a reason for that name :-D) last week were more short than ever in the eur/usd pair. This week they are even more short. This suggest me that, first or later, they will take some profit, and covering their short position they will push up the euro currency.
    The downgrade of european country that we saw friday, is happend at the right moment (and this is, as you said, "curious" :-D). While the euro was starting a retracement up, due to some good news, the downgrade pushed the euro down again, giving the possibility (to large traders) of covering position at a better price (and without pushing up the market). Obviously, as we are technical traders, we can't go long right now, we need some confirmation from the price action. But still, this might be a context for the mid-term.
    Does this make sense?
     

    Attached Files:

  5. BrokerMe

    BrokerMe Recruit

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    eur/usdll

    Thanks sive for your analysis, but I still consider a great downwards tendency on euro weakness, as far as 1,24.

    January is bein a hard month and appart from your di napoli's you must take into consideratin the political calendar from now to the end of the month.
     
  6. Simbasimba

    Simbasimba Recruit

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    Thank you Sive. really appreciate your effort in making the video and text. Guys tmrw will be holidaY for US, thus wonder if there will be big moves..
     
  7. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Hi Papao,
    Well, I do not rely much on divergences, just one example for you - the same divergence to the left - it has failed. Usually I use it as additional pattern but never as major pattern.
    Speaking about COT - yes it makes sense, but you have to calculate oversold and overbought conditions properly. Properly means that we must pay attention not to absolute number, but to relative % value of total shorts positions. Since, this is important. THere will be the chapter dedicated to COT report in our Military School.
    I'm not sure about relation of S&P action with interest to close shorts, this sounds a bit fantastic, but COT itself important
     
  8. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Hi Banco,
    No, my principle is to not have any accounts in Twitter, Facebook, LJ and others.
     
  9. Triantus Shango

    Triantus Shango Sergeant Major

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    sive, couldn't agree more w/ your take on rating agencies. however, if a weaker EUR serves the US, it also serves european exporters, doesn't it? ;-) then it seems like S&P is helping both sides for now.

    asif, georgeta, sounds like a plan... however will have to ask the mrs's permission first ;-)

    good luck all. can't wait for tomorrow to see whether mr market will go up or down.
     
  10. papao

    papao Private, 1st Class

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    thank you sive for your quick answer. I'll be waiting for the COT chapter in your school :)
     

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