FOREX PRO WEEKLY January 16-20, 2012

Q-Rick

Private, 1st Class
Messages
47
Yes Sive, I'm aware about where H&S & INVERSE H&S patterns, "rightfully" appear as reversal patterns. That's why I say "PERCEIVED" INVERSE H&S, because many traders, don't know this fact of where they appear, only that they are reversal patterns. So, ..... with a PERCEPTION of an INVERSE H&S, along with Uptrend line support from 2000/2010 lows, accomplishment of Weekly AB CD & Daily ab cd, at same price point area AND the Divergence on the Daily chart seems worthy of consideration for substantial bounce. Now add COT info to this, and it seems all the more so, that we should be mindful of potential big bounce from the 1.2490 - 1.2495 area......... ?Do you not feel any of these points have validity? I may seems anxious for your thoughts here because I am short from 1.42 area and don't want to give back what a substantial bounce would take back. I would rather hold short for lower target, however I respect your expertise and extensive research very much and would like your thoughts to see how in might influence my decision over the next few days. Thanks again for your valued response. - Q-Rick
 
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asif faryad

Sergeant
Messages
194
Thanks Sive,

Yes i understand but maybe year end we may be able to come to your location i leave it to the The Morten traders to see if maybe something can be pre arranged year end maybe?
However the invitation to the Morten Traders group is an open invite,i can arrange accommodation at good reasonable rates,so keep those Pips flowing!!

Wishing the Morten traders as always a successful week!
 

mrgummo

Corporal
Messages
128
With much appreciation!

Thank you, Sive, for sharing your insights, knowledge and expertise with us. As a US public school teacher in a district with major cutbacks in supplemental pay (and a 3 year pay freeze), your advice is helping my family tremendously, allowing me to supplement our income without me having to take a second job away from home. I wish you much prosperity and abundance, on all levels!

Ron
 

Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
Messages
1,372
sive, q-rick, papao,

regarding q-rick's and papao's argument, could we not also argue that as soon as the rumor of downgrades came out, the market dropped and thus priced in the downgrades. if it's already priced in now, wouldn't that lend more weight to q-rick's argument?

that being said, i'll side with the technical patterns. as long as we don't see any sign of significant trend exhaustion, the MACD divergence is just 1 factor and tenuous at that. if we look at the ichimoku on monthly, we already have 2 out of 3 strong bearish signals. and 3 out of 3 on weekly and daily. on top of all other the other bearish signs sive mentioned. this might be the beginning of the historical bear market in EURO.
 

Q-Rick

Private, 1st Class
Messages
47
Yes Triantus, I am long time Elliot Wave(r) and the EUR is indeed in a bear market. It, as well as the Dollar Index which I primarily follow, (albeit converse to the EUR) are in what we believe is a 3rd wave of a major 3rd wave which has often been described as a move in the market that is a "wonder to behold". So I, like Sive and yourself and most others in this forum agree as to the eventual target of the EUR. The unknown is "WHEN". So, ....... my only point is, "will there be a bounce, perhaps even a substantial bounce, before tanking in the aforementioned "wonder to behold" 3rd wave of a major 3rd wave.

I can't count the number of times over the many years I've been trading that I was "early" to enter or late in exiting a trade (because of my confidence of what would eventually happen), and as a result gave back much of my hard earned money to the market.

Thanks for your comments. I certainly appreciate all observations and the various perspectives. Hope to meet you and all the others in this forum, one day at the big "Morten Traders Rendezvous", wherever in the world it proves to be.
 
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BeeKay8

Sergeant
Messages
208
Thanks a lot, Sive. I really appreciate your analysis. I am learning a lot from you. Hope everyone gets off to a good week and let's grab some pips!!! :)
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,727
Yes Sive, I'm aware about where H&S & INVERSE H&S patterns, "rightfully" appear as reversal patterns. That's why I say "PERCEIVED" INVERSE H&S, because many traders, don't know this fact of where they appear, only that they are reversal patterns. So, ..... with a PERCEPTION of an INVERSE H&S, along with Uptrend line support from 2000/2010 lows, accomplishment of Weekly AB CD & Daily ab cd, at same price point area AND the Divergence on the Daily chart seems worthy of consideration for substantial bounce. Now add COT info to this, and it seems all the more so, that we should be mindful of potential big bounce from the 1.2490 - 1.2495 area......... ?Do you not feel any of these points have validity? I may seems anxious for your thoughts here because I am short from 1.42 area and don't want to give back what a substantial bounce would take back. I would rather hold short for lower target, however I respect your expertise and extensive research very much and would like your thoughts to see how in might influence my decision over the next few days. Thanks again for your valued response. - Q-Rick
Rick, I agree with you that you have some reasons to worry. Even month ago I've said in research that long-term traders should to think about close of position due approaching to solid support and so on.
But currently we've passed through it as knife through butter - that's what is worring me. Also, take a look at weekly AB=CD, CD leg is flatter but market has not even bounced from it's completion point.
1.25 area is 0.786 support, everything could happen, as we know, but logic tells that if market has not bounced from monthly Agreement with major 0.618, why it should from minor 0.786?
I thought about your situation, and probably you can take a profit, if market will accelerate above weekly pivot resistance 1 on daily time frame. This usually signs that deeper upward move will follow. How else you can take as much profit as you can - I don't know...

sive, q-rick, papao,

regarding q-rick's and papao's argument, could we not also argue that as soon as the rumor of downgrades came out, the market dropped and thus priced in the downgrades. if it's already priced in now, wouldn't that lend more weight to q-rick's argument?

that being said, i'll side with the technical patterns. as long as we don't see any sign of significant trend exhaustion, the MACD divergence is just 1 factor and tenuous at that. if we look at the ichimoku on monthly, we already have 2 out of 3 strong bearish signals. and 3 out of 3 on weekly and daily. on top of all other the other bearish signs sive mentioned. this might be the beginning of the historical bear market in EURO.
Yes, Triantus, I just have said it to Rick. I think our major reason for some "divergence" in our views on current situation is based on different tools that we use in analysis. Our general view is similar, but details and nuances depends on tools and they are different. That's why we feel that something could come, but can't catch some clear issue that could give us sufficient confidence. I think so...


Thank you, Sive, for sharing your insights, knowledge and expertise with us. As a US public school teacher in a district with major cutbacks in supplemental pay (and a 3 year pay freeze), your advice is helping my family tremendously, allowing me to supplement our income without me having to take a second job away from home. I wish you much prosperity and abundance, on all levels!

Ron
Hi Ron,
In current circumstances, especially for just workers as most of us here to stay on surface is not a simple task to do, especially now. So, I'm really pleased that FPA work was appear to be and is helpful. That is what we are working for here.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,727
BTW, friends,
it could be DRPO "Buy" LAL at hourly chart.. or DRPO Failure.... At least context is acceptable for LAL.
 

Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
Messages
1,372
same here. if i had a dollar for every time i did that... :)
now regarding your quandary, i was going to say: 'what's 200 pips out of 1600?' that's bloody damn good! and mr market starts retracing, i'd close anywhere after 2725 and get poised to reload. and if it breaks above the weekly pivot, then no big deal right? all you have to do is wait for confirmation the uptrend has asserted itself and buy from the 38.2 or 61.8 retrace of the move above the weekly pivot. i know, easy for me to say since i used to try to grab every single swing and then confusing my crayons :D and losing money. but sive is providing a solid framework, so what's the worry?
 
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