FOREX PRO WEEKLY January 16-20, 2012

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
EUR/USD Daily Update, Tue 17, January 2012

Good morning,

On daily time frame we see that market has bounced from lower border of our Broadening Bottom pattern and now is trying to move above pivot, shifting trend to bullish. Here I just want to remind you some crucial moments.
Very often Broadening Bottoms become a reversal pattern, but for that purpose market will have to take its high. If this will happen, it can mean that market could show deeper move to the upside. If this move will happen, even before that we will get another bullish clue - if market will move above pivot resistance.

On 4 hour chart trend has turned bullish, market has reached our "first to watch" area just for single jump up. This is a worring sign for bears.

On hourly chart a lot of significant information. You can see that our DRPO "Buy" LAL has worked nice. Market has achieved 1.618 extension target as of DRPO as of another AB=CD extension and creates at Agreement with hourly K-resistance, pivot point. So, we at solid resistance, but move to it was fast and strong.
If you're bearish - you can act twofold. First approach is to drop your time frame to 15 min chart - you will see context at least for 2 reversal patterns - DRPO "Sell" and Butterfly "Sell" and stick to them - if they will realize you may try to trade it.
Second way is to wait when hourly trend will turn bearish, then enter short at nearest 0.382 resistance area. This probably will happen if market will cancel bullish scenario - here it is:

If you're bullish, probably it makes sense to wait some retracement, since currently market stands at solid resistance. YOur crucial level is 1.2685-1.2697 K-support. Also this is solid classical support/resistance area. If market really intends to proceed higher, it should not significantly break it down. If it will happen, then probably trend will turn bearish and this will be the sign of weakness and probable continuation to the downside.

So, keep an eye on crucial levels and patterns. Trade with your plan.


Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
sive, i'm sorry but i don't follow you when you write: 'First approach is to drop your time frame to 15 min chart - you will see context at least for 2 reversal patterns - DRPO "Sell" and Butterfly "Sell" ....'

i neither see the DRPO nor the butterfly on my M15. did you mean that we have a context where they possibly are in the process of forming but have not started forming yet? or that we can already see part of those structures? because right now, i see nothing on M15.

asif faryad

Welcome back mate!!!

I am still on my extended holidays!!! :)

I hope you had a great holiday and i wish you a Happy New Year and lots of pips!!



Anyone else got sells up around 1.2737 and getting worried? :( Lol.. Was supposed to be a strong resistance. Bad times.