FOREX PRO WEEKLY July 21-25, 2014

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Euro Daily insight

This is what I was expecting and here is decision level..we might drop into 5th, if swing before was not accepted as 5th... I expect just W&R, question remains below 1,3476 or not, or we might go higher above 1,35748 where again we might drop as DZZ into new W&R low or go above 1,36496 and drop later...I do not expect above 1,37...we might wait also in this zone but i hardly believe for more than a week...but it is possible...

 

[Sive Morten]

sive

what do you think about this?

The Euro is Poised for a Steady Rise, Expect $1.50 in 2 to 4 Years

Well, I've read it. Really not bad article. But it does not have major thing that is must for this sort of analysis - real regression models, math predictions and correlations. Without these models all these stuff is just nice pictures. For example, he wrote about trade balances, GDP, inflation, household debt, etc and shows graphs. But where is the guarantee that EUR/USD has any relation to this macro data, where is regression models, multi-factor models that will prove based on this data that EUR should be 1.50 (They have failed btw with prediction ones).
Triantus, once I worked on regression model that allow to predict NFP data. As a result I've got an equation with 3-4 parameters that predicts NFP with 90% probability.
When analyst dives in investigation of fundamental data and macro economy, he or she has to prove that his analysis works.
I think that this article is useful for understanding nature of impacts of different data on currency rate but it has weak practical application. Where to buy, where to sell? My experience tells that this analysis is useful as additional one. For example you know that bond market should start to rise and you want to buy some bonds but you do not know what currency to choose. In this case you can use such sort of investigation and get as results, say, conclusion that EUR should not fall too much and buy EUR-denominated bonds to get expected yield rate . But for trading on FX market per se, it is needed more accurate analysis and more definite as in terms of level of price as in terms of time. "Within 2-4 years"... EUR could just cyclically reach 1.50 without any analysis during this period...
One of the major principles of inestment valuation tells: "As more parameters in the model as more difficult to control it's functioning". It could turn to some 'Black box" that you feed with numbers and it generates predictions. These article is something of that sort - too much imputs of huge value..

But there are some other moments here. Author tells that Germany is a creditor, while US is debtor. US has ~40 military bases in Germany and 70 bases across the Europe. I'm not sure that EU could follow there own course in any sphere political or economical. They have of couse some free room but Europe in fact is a colony of US. That's why it's fiscal independence stands under question. But this is quite different topic.

 

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Cable Daily insight

gbpusd

This might be aF top..pullback to 50% as bF (ZZ on H1/M30) and above 1,7120...
Below last low would be TZZ correction, not impossible but here I do not expect very deep move...

 

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Well, I've read it. Really not bad article.
One of the major principles of inestment valuation tells: "As more parameters in the model as more difficult to control it's functioning". It could turn to some 'Black box" that you feed with numbers and it generates predictions. These article is something of that sort - too much imputs of huge value..

Agree...much better than article about currency reserves..to me was useless...most important data, how much reserves are in USD, comparing to all, and what is happening with relation between was not included..

But I like pictures in this article! Especially dollar index!!

I posted my analysis just before Triantus posted link...

You can see someone is wrong or lies...my chartist has not 3rd LL, Bloomberg has!

I would never made such prediction with 3rd low, or at least would be extremely cautious, because that low means 5ED COULD already be in place!!

You see: Everybody lies! (reffering dr. House)

 

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audchf insight

Hehe, not done yet!

I think last wave up will unfold as ED, can not say converging or diverging, yet...must wait..

0,81732 will decide if we get an impulse or BIG ED..

Pay attention to black line @0,7715, prepared also BIG picture.


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Sorry, it is not clean but have used same template with leg developing...
This looks like low of 2nd Flat was placed but must invest some more time for potential developing..

 

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eurgbp insight

One of results of Triantus link about currency reserves was I dedicated more time to eurgbp yesterday...

Looks like there is really something bigger going on but can not say when...

Looking in the past I am expecting this move from bottom @0,5686 in May 2000 should unfold as motive wave.
My prefered count is an impulse, 3rd placed @0,98039 in Dec 2008 and TZZ correction as 4th bottomed @0,77507 in Jul 2012. Next move up (0,77507 – 0,8814) I consider as 1st of an impulse (or a of 1ED, we will see later) and we are in ZZ corrective 2nd. On Daily there are so many waves it is hard to count but I am satisfied with my decision and I believe we are at bottom. It is true that coming out of channel 2/4 looks dangerous….
I am also aware of cable power and euro weakness so that is why I put in the chart also possibility of developing Ending diagonal and Flat corrective 2ED. This count comes in play in case 0,77507 breaks. How deep should price in such case go is impossible to claim, from just a tick to much lower…There is also possibility we pull back above 0,84 first and later lower again, but that would be Flat corrective 2nd and should not go below 0,77507…

For sure it is worth to watch, even buying with 160 pips stop and 490 pips profit looks fine, not mentioning this trade could last several years, sooner or later.

Good trading!


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eurusd 1,5000+

Could we see 1,5000 and above?

YES, WE CAN! (hehe, sounds familiar?)

We could see 1,600+ and I would remain bearish..hard to understand but it is as it is...

Last year in beginning of November I sent my analysis where I was thinking about Flat and not about Contracting triangle as many of analysts...I could not find that post but does not matter, have the picture in my head..

Slowly, day by day, week by week, that picture comes clearer, but not more probable! There is lot of potential we plunge into abyss too...

I am ready to consider congestion as a swing completed if only there is just one swing indicator, or congestion is really nicely seen..

Most important is the interpretation&understanding of swings and of course, the levels which should, or not, be broken..

So, here is how we really could climb very high, slowly with big swings but we could..

Whole move from 1,2041 low is ZZ, wave c = 1ED in place...drop in price teritory between a&b would be 2ED..

When?

I put that low in November 2014..for a reason!!

Good friend sent me LarryWilliams Forecast 2014, where Mr. Williams says:
This year I will be making a John Wayne bet, being all in in for what I see as a historic buy point coming

Hard to believe, isnt it?

OK, this post you can take as fun, too...




ps
this picture goes nicely with my recent dollar index analysis....

 

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eurusd update

Borrring Monday and looks like Tuesday will be lazy too...

I think we are in Diverging ED as 5th and we will not go below 1,3476..

Above 1,3548 we go into 1,3575 zone..

 

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usdjpy insight

hehe, if my expectation is right, we will turn in 6 pips space, between 100,81 and 100,75..

3ED i read as TZZ, currently we should turn into last wave c.

 

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eurusd daily insight

..missed high for few pips and few 30M candles..
..intend to sell above 1,3520 with SL 1,3529 and TP below 1,3490..