FOREX PRO Weekly July 22-26, 2013

[Venelin]

A/U Weekly,

I know this is wrong thread for this pair but if you are looking at weekly chart we may have a context for a B&B sell . From current level it could be a move on the upside +450pips if it is working out...

I have been watching it for last two weeks-I would wait this week closing, as it could be DRPO buy in the coming weeks with .97 target

 

[Venelin]

Here is two scenarios in Euro:
View attachment 10421 In 4h chart W4= typical retracement of 3/8 of W2-W3 , and W5=W1 Right at top of channel and 161.8 butterfly sell, also 88.6 of 1.3415 and trend line from 1.3710-1.3415(if tested next 2-3 days)! So 1.3340 is BIG resistance.
View attachment 10422

 

[handlerforex]

Thank you SIRE.

 

[Lolly Tripathy]

For me very nice area to take a short @ current level 1.3275 for 1.3000

 

[minimax]

For me very nice area to take a short @ current level 1.3275 for 1.3000

the best and not just to 1,3

add: sorry, said to quick that 1,3, will check a bit

 

[RahmanSL]

Here's some news from eFXnews which might be some consolation to those who too got it wrong on the EUR/USD


"Got burned by this week's spike in EUR/USD? Well, here are a couple of big names who got it wrong on this trade as well.

Barclays Capital stopped today out of its macro tactical short EUR/USD position at 1.3275. The trade entered mid-July at 1.3066, with a stop at 1.3275 and target of 1.27.

Commerzbank also stopped out of its technical tactical short EUR/USD positions at 1.3280. The trades entered from 1.3175, and 1.3250, with a stop at 1.3280, and an open target. "

 

[minimax]

Well, was tricky, admit, but exactly targets hit: 138,2 extension (max for B, 161,8 last c of B) and remains tricky but I expect impulsive C down; targets are top at 1,3205 as minimum and lower, first by expansion at 1,3082 but down legs will determine real target; personally expect very shallow retrace but I am not the market maker; my strategy is selling rallys down to 1,3205; atm stop just above 1,3288 which is red 2



good trading!



add 07.52: because of 1H chart moved SL above last HH @1,3299

 

[Venelin]

15 min. chart:
View attachment 10431

 

[minimax]

Well, can not agree more with todays analysis, thank you Sive!

Long or Short? ATM to me looks like possible price hesitation zone but breakout will clarify, it it comes not just W&R, clearly on 4H.

My picture for both directions





Good trading!



add; in 30 minutes I will be more confident in my count or will change mind


add: 12 minutes to go; nice weekend to all!

Good trading!

 

[Triantus Shango]

papao

Historical Volatility is not available on tradingview.com

Hi Sive and thank you for your weekly update.
I'm asking you a question, but please answer only if and when you have time and first of all enjoy your vacation.
I just started exploring the options (and i understand they are a very sophisticated instrument). Just a little idea: as we trade (probably most of time) using stop loss and take profit, we have a predetermined risk reward ratio. Let's say we are going long, with a stop loss 100 pips below the entry and a take profit 200 pips above. If we trade fx spot market, futures (but also stocks, bonds etc) we have a RR of 2:1. But.. if we buy a deep out of money call (because the gamma and the delta which isn't fixed) when the underlying goes up we benefit also from the increasing delta (just like we had a position that auto increase itself) and also when the underlying goes down we benefit from decreasing delta (again, just like if the position were auto decreasing). So trading out of money options seems a easy way to improve the risk reward ratio. Do you think this make sense or not? I suspect that the time decay of options is offsetting that advantage of variable delta.
Thank you and have fun time

EDIT: just to explain a little better my idea: i'm not talking about buying options and hold it until expiration. I'm thinking about trading options using signals on the underlying market in order to benefit from the variable delta of the options before the expiring date (so buy a deep out of money call instead going long the underlying or buy a deep out of money put instead shorting the underlying. And when we have an exit signal from the underlying (because of the stop loss or the taking profit) we liquidate the option position).