Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, June 03 - 07, 2019

[Sive Morten]

Rahman, I recall what you've said on D. Trump UK visit and then I saw Sky news intro
https://eus-streaming-video-msn-com...bad/802af978-a77f-4e0e-8809-489b01e0_2250.mp4
I haven't laughed so hard for a long time...

 

[Stag]

Greetings guys, our forecast was correct, prices went lower and reached the bottom of the projected target area in three waves - and as we know, three waves are corrective moves.

The rise from 1.1116 is impulsive, we have five waves completed far above both Kennedy channels and our critical key level at 1.1175 also has broken already - all of them are bullish signs...

View attachment 42828

Greetings guys, the bullish signs were confirmed by a strongly bullish price action, resulted in a shallow pink wave (ii) correction (~38%). Then, prices skyrocketed towards our target zone.. Despite of this the Euro is tricky like hell. All of my updated longer term scenarios are still valid after minor adjustments (see below).

Regarding key levels, 1.1324 has already lost its critical key status due to changes in wave structure. The new key level to watch for is 1.1448. As long as prices are below this level, the Euro is vulnerable to new lows.

Concerning short-term price action, it's premature to conclude the Euro has established a top. We can expect a new high as long as prices are trading above the grey base channel(s). If it breaks I will anticipate limited downside progress back to the 1.117 - 1.115 zone especially in case of Scenario2 - the price action should appear to be corrective in nature. An impulsive decline would favor the other scenarios and further weakness.

Longer term scenarios

Short term

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning everybody,

Today we do not have a lot of new issues on EUR. In fact, we're watching for the same setup. Yesterday we've got minor reaction on overbought, today level shifts higher - to 1.1287 and price finally enters wide K-resistance area on daily chart.

Price now stands above MPR1, which means, by pivot framework, that this action is not a retracement within bearish trend.

Our major short-term target stands ahead - this is XOP at 1.1290. It creates Agrement with daily K-resistance and today overbought level. Getting its all together - major retracement has chances to happen as soon as XOP will be hit. Here we haven't got any DiNapoli patterns yesterday, but EUR shows 1st close below 3x3 DMA. Once XOP will be hit - second close could follow, thus, DRPO LAL still seems to be possible here :

Our retracement on 1H chart was in a shape on minor H&S pattern, which completed AB=CD right before J.Powell's speech. Now, speaking of perspective of retracement, we could get greater pattern - butterfly first, but later it could be H&S as well. Everything is turning around daily resistance right now and we just need to watch for market reaction - what pattern will be formed. As we are at resistance, it is not very good area for taking new long position. For scalp short we also need a pattern that we do not have yet, as major XOP is not completed:

 

[Stag]

Hey guys, I just wanted to show you some interesting forum statistics that I found here at FPA. One of the performance indicators we can calculate shows the Likes/Messages Ratio, a kind of quality measure of content.

I can gladly say that three of the top 4 members regularly post here. It was a big surprise for me (except Sive). Thank you all for the rating, I appreciate it.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hey guys, I just wanted to show you some interesting forum statistics that I found here at FPA. One of the performance indicators we can calculate shows the Likes/Messages Ratio, a kind of quality measure of content.

I can gladly say that three of the top 4 members regularly post here. It was a big surprise for me (except Sive). Thank you all for the rating, I appreciate it.

View attachment 42889

This is absolutely deserved stats. Mate you show one of the best EW analysis I've ever seen.

But I need to improve my stats

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

Our tactic setup is done and now it is interesting what will happen next. Thus, EUR has formed bearish reversal session, failure to break our strong resistance level. It significantly increases chances of deeper retracement, as reversal sessions usually have continuation:

Indeed, EUR has turned down as soon as it hit 4H XOP target. But, unfortunately we do not have either pure DRPO "Sell" nor pure B&B "Buy". For Double Repo - it is a bit large difference between tops. Besides, EUR collapsed so hard that mostly completed minimal DR target @ 50% support area.
We do not have clear B&B "Buy" either, because market has shown close below 3x3 and interrupted thrust. But, abstracting from B&B, we still have momentum setup, which mostly the same as B&B in terms of market mechanics. As upside momentum is strong, we suggest that before downside continuation EUR should show deep upside pullback, somewhere to 50% or higher:

Approximately, overall price action within tod-tom action could look as follows:

My prophecy ends here, but...
As soon as deep retracement will be done, following analysis of our EW experts, upside action should continue. Tomorrow we also have NFP release, so it will be interesting...

 

[Stag]

This is absolutely deserved stats. Mate you show one of the best EW analysis I've ever seen.

But I need to improve my stats

We could hardly find anyone performing technical, fundamental and quantitative analysis and producing such a high-quality content / concise and straightforward daily/weekly market commentary like you do Sive. IMHO the fact is that you are the number one forex market analyst worldwide. Period.

 

[RahmanSL]

Rahman, I recall what you've said on D. Trump UK visit and then I saw Sky news intro
https://eus-streaming-video-msn-com...bad/802af978-a77f-4e0e-8809-489b01e0_2250.mp4
I haven't laughed so hard for a long time...

Hi Sive.... I too watch Trup's visit live over Skynews and, quite frankly, I cringed whenever he gave ill-informed facts like "huge" supporters" and "small demonstrators" which is very similar to his claims of larger crowd at his presidential inauguration vs for Obama.
Oh well....Trump is just being Trump....but I really wish he would think things through carefully before "tweeting" out spur-of-the-moment thoughts which, as President of the most powerful nation on earth, affect all of us on planet earth....geopolitically and economically!

Cheers & all the best my friend!

P/S: I have been keeping track of your valuable insights analysis on Gold because I got into trading that commodity without meaning to and now need to get out of some bad trades.

 

[Stag]

...Concerning short-term price action, it's premature to conclude the Euro has established a top. We can expect a new high as long as prices are trading above the grey base channel(s). If it breaks I will anticipate limited downside progress back to the 1.117 - 1.115 zone especially in case of Scenario2 - the price action should appear to be corrective in nature. An impulsive decline would favor the other scenarios and further weakness...

Our short-term bullish expectations has been already met but note, that we have only three waves up completed at 1.1306. As long as prices are trading above 1.1215, a sudden rally may start from nearby levels. This is just a warning that the Euro may hit unexpectedly a new peak building a five wave structure instead.

On the other hand, the impulsive nature of price action off the 1.1306 high is favoring the idea wave 4 has registered its high as an ABC correoction and five waves may be now under way toward new lows. Unless price rallies above 1.1306, a still unfolding pullback should stop between 1.125 - 1.128, then I will favor another leg lower (just wave A of 5 possibly). A break below 1.1215 will add confidence to the idea the larger degree downtrend may be still underway here.

We have no confirming price action yet.

 

[omega-ko]

Hi Sive....

I fully agree and especially with regard to gold