FOREX PRO Weekly June 13 - 17, 2011

[Sipi]

Hi Sipi,
looks like it has failed already ...

Yes, I see now, so I keep my short.

Thanks for your reply, and kind help!

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Another question:

Last week You show us a butterfly pattern on daily chart. As I remember it's right wing bottom is about 1,41, and it's target is ~1,52.
The price looks like building this pattern.
Could it still work, or there are any rules, that cancalled this idea?

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive thanks again for the great job you do,i am comparing my own analysis to yours on a daily basis and i am learning a lot every day,i don't know if i am using the wrong weekly pivot indicator but it does not compare to yours exactly what is the correct calculation.
Thanks

I think the reason is that my quotes 30 pip lower that yours due to Futures charts.

Yes, I see now, so I keep my short.

Thanks for your reply, and kind help!

----------------------------------------------

Another question:

Last week You show us a butterfly pattern on daily chart. As I remember it's right wing bottom is about 1,41, and it's target is ~1,52.
The price looks like building this pattern.
Could it still work, or there are any rules, that cancalled this idea?

Pattern will be cancelled in market will move below 1.41. Currently will it reach 0.618 support from recent swing or even 1.0 - it does not matter.

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 16, June 2011

Hello everybody,
so we needed more clarification from the market we've got it...
Looks like we have strong bearish bias. The only bullish hope that we have is potential Butterfly "buy". But I have some doubts about it.
1. We have stop grabber on weekly with target below low of butterfly;
2. recent move down on daily chart tells that after some retracement market has nice odds to reach 1.618 target at 1.3854
3. Finally, looks like weekly AB=CD getting shape with target at 1.37.

So, we have weekly bear trend, daily bear trend. Market has not reached oversold yet. But it stands at solid support - 0.786 + 1.0 Fib extension + pivot support 2.
In such kind combination, better to wait some retracement, but not too deep. Probably we can use 1.4204 to enter with placing stop above 1.4300
If market really intends to continue move down - it should not pass 1.43. Because this is daily Confluence, 50% of nasty bar down and previous support/resistance. The reason for retracement is respect of support but not change in sentiment.
If market will take 1.43, then this is not just a respect, but something more...

 

[mjunkyard]

61.8 vs. 78.6

Dear Sive;
As someone that follows your education on a regular basis i have two basic questions;
1) I see that the 78.6 fibo is very powerful in forex. When do we use the 61.8 and when do we use 78.6? ( I see that the cgq software doesn't even show the 76.8).
2) Where could i read about the "stop grabber"? is it the same like W&R?

I really appreciate all you invaluable help.
sincerely
mjunkyard

 

[Sive Morten]

Dear Sive;
As someone that follows your education on a regular basis i have two basic questions;
1) I see that the 78.6 fibo is very powerful in forex. When do we use the 61.8 and when do we use 78.6? ( I see that the cgq software doesn't even show the 76.8).
2) Where could i read about the "stop grabber"? is it the same like W&R?

I really appreciate all you invaluable help.
sincerely
mjunkyard

Hi Mjunkyard,
CQG will show any level. This tool is adjustable, as in MT 4. You can add or delete any Fib level.
Probably I do not use it, because 78.6 and 76.8 are very close. BTW, could you explain how 76.8 appears from Fib point of view. Because 78.6 is a square root from 0.618.
2. I'm affraid that you will not be able to read free about SG anywhere, because this pattern is based on DiNapoli MACDP indicator. So, this is Joe's know-how. The only way is to visit his private siminars or get money access to his forum.

 

[mjunkyard]

oops!
i actually meant 76.8 not 78.6.
so here is my question again if you'll be so kind to answer;
I see that the 76.8 fibo is very powerful in forex. When do we use the 61.8 and when do we use 76.8?
or do we use both?
sincerely
mjunkyard

 

[Sive Morten]

oops!
i actually meant 76.8 not 78.6.
so here is my question again if you'll be so kind to answer;
I see that the 76.8 fibo is very powerful in forex. When do we use the 61.8 and when do we use 76.8?
or do we use both?
sincerely
mjunkyard

We use both, so as 0.88 also. 0.786 0.5 and 0.88 have more significance for harmonic patterns. While for retracement we use all of them. DiNapoli uses only 0.382 and 0.618.

 

[rashidin5178]

Hi Sive,

Based on your knowledge and experience, how do we know short term trend is shifting from price behaviour point of view itself?

As a new trader, I always make some observation on price action by myself. Sometime I know the shifting is near based on its slowdown in momentum, supported by some indicators. But I have some lack of confidence and difficulties sometimes when suddenly trend change mostly due to fundamental.

My suggestion, it is very nice if we can also discuss on fundamental factors (especially breaking news) or at least awareness during your daily analysis sometimes, when fundamental looks like will take big effect on that day.

Sorry for the request but I think it will help us a lot.

Thanks. Very glad to hear from you soon.

 

[georgeta]

If the trend line on Monthly is correct, then we can see Kiss and Good bye at the confluence level. Just a thought...

 

[MidnightRun]

If the trend line on Monthly is correct, then we can see Kiss and Good bye at the confluence level. Just a thought...

georgetta, I know that the term "kiss and goodby" was explained in this forum several times, but I am not quite sure of its meaning at this time. I tried to find the explanation in the Forum using the search function, all to no avail. Do I get it right that what you have in mind is this - the price hits the confluence level and then pulls back to the downside (as Sive suggested in his today's update - price will likely retrace to somewhere around 1.42 and then will move to the downside).
Thanks.