FOREX PRO WEEKLY June 30- July 04, 2014

[minimax]

eurusd

what will happen at 1,3650? will price go out of cannel? here is decision zone for direction...

 

[minimax]

usdcad

I expect Loonie retraces after hits the target..PRZ is below 1,06083..3 possible patterns:
- TZZ with target 1,0588 (I do not like the most that c wave has so short 3rd wave (not on picture, lower TF, but 5th should not exceed 1,05848)
- D3 (ZZ-ZZcorr-F) with target 1,05727..one wave too much or we get 2 more (up&down)
- eventually that last drop was wave a of 3rd ZZ...not likely

Whole move down could later form 1st leg of something bigger, like Flat or maybe 1ED, but about that when it happens and if...

 

[Venelin]

so, we just hit 262 expansion @1,7173 as last projected lenght of 5th..rertace would be appreciated...but not lower than 1,7 and into c of 3ED which might exceed lenght of 1ED @1,7228 so 5th will have no limits to up side..4th must come into 1st, below 1,7 and stay in channel..

View attachment 15518

Maybe 4h DRPO sell with current target @1.7090 would be perfect development for this scenario...
So far no reaction from Yellen

 

[minimax]

gbpusd

...extremely short 4th and 5th...maybe some more up? not excluded..although there ought to be only an impulse what I consider less probable so I expect move down..theoretically this retrace could go all the way to 1,6918 but I think should stop between 1,7 and 1,695..1,7090 would satisfy but I find this level a bit too short..
whatever, most important will be if 3ED will hit lenght of 1ED or not...

 

[Venelin]

Looking at USD/JPY chart I have the feeling that tomorrow, after payrolls, enormous moves are due! We will see!

 

[minimax]

Looking at USD/JPY chart I have the feeling that tomorrow, after payrolls, enormous moves are due! We will see!

would you share what you see?

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive

May I please ask with respect to drawing fib retracement from the "thrust" on GBP hourly, I notice you start the thrust at 1.70501 on the big marubosa like bar. But I am finding difficult to understand why you not start the thrust at the bar before this or any of the bars before this for that matter as they were all part of the main thrust? For example in your GOLD analysis you have a Fib "thrust" starting from the bar prior to a marubosa like bar.

As there is grey area to determing where "thrust" starts, could you please explain what your logic is to determine where thrust will start?

Thanks

Hi Geehog,
Since this is DiNapoli levels, he treats long thrusting candles as "hidden reaction points" and uses them as foundation for Fib levels. You can know more about it, from his book - Trading with DiNapoli levels

 

[minimax]

surprise:I still think this wave up is corrective but extremely complicated...based on Swannel we could topped T3 formation but as such could not be wave y but could be 1st leg of something other, like bigger Flat...in this case we should drop to at least 50% @1,3605 and impulsive wave cF above current HH @1,36995...well, this could be realized whit whipsaw at NFP and Draghi speech...100 pips whipsaw, not impossible...

blue: channel is very important, if touched lower line this count COULD be invalidated OR muchmuch more complicated, like DZZ 3ED...more upside??

pink: if 1,36335 is not touched, move up could be expected as 5th,..hm, spike above 1,37 is also possible at NFP & speech.. if touched, very last peak COULD be 1ED but price should not go below bF low @1,35746..

Because market (who?) is always right we could just drop....weekly swing high is in place...who cares about my count..

Whipsaw could happen also to others and unfold what is neccessary...major problem I have with usdjpy...

Now is time for lunch..

Good trading and good luck!

 

[geehog]

Hi Geehog,
Since this is DiNapoli levels, he treats long thrusting candles as "hidden reaction points" and uses them as foundation for Fib levels. You can know more about it, from his book - Trading with DiNapoli levels

Thanks very much for your reply, I have read dinapoli book and understand the concept of the hidden reaction level starting from the thrust but my understanding from this was that the reaction level would be from the low of the large bar that started the thrust, but I see for gold this week you sometimes start the thrust from a bar before the large thrust bar. I want to understand how u interpret where a thrust will start as I thought it was from the low of the large bar where thrust start? Hope this makes sense

 

[Sive Morten]

Thanks very much for your reply, I have read dinapoli book and understand the concept of the hidden reaction level starting from the thrust but my understanding from this was that the reaction level would be from the low of the large bar that started the thrust, but I see for gold this week you sometimes start the thrust from a bar before the large thrust bar. I want to understand how u interpret where a thrust will start as I thought it was from the low of the large bar where thrust start? Hope this makes sense

Well, sometimes thrust starts not by long bar. I mostly estimate it visiually. In most cases I use long bar. But sometimes, if some candles create unite thrust with following big candle - I think we can use it as single motion. In fact, we need point where real thrust has started, but not just to follow rules by letter. Although in most cases they coincide.
This mismatch could appear if, say, thrust has started few minutes before hour candle will appear. This hourly division is a technical issue. From that standpoint, I think we can use other candles and treat it as thrust reaction point. But I absolutely do not call to follow me with this voluntary approach