FOREX PRO WEEKLY March 09-13, 2015

[Sive Morten]

Fundamentals
Reuters reports the dollar jumped to an 11-1/2-year high against a basket of currencies on Friday as robust U.S. employment growth fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve was closer to raising interest rates.

The euro fell below $1.09 for the first time since September 2003. It was last at $1.0862, off 1.50 percent for the day.

The dollar accelerated after the government reported that U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew by 295,000 in February, exceeding expectations of 240,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate fell to a more than 6-1/2-year low of 5.5 percent.

"We feel the economy is in a position for the Fed to begin normalizing policy," said Sam Bullard, senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina. "We think it is on the path to make a rate change in June."

U.S. interest rates futures signaled that investors were placing more bets the Fed might raise rates this summer, though they have not fully priced in such a move until late 2015.

Markets are pricing in something less dovish," said Nick Verdi, currency strategist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York.


U.S. bond yields, relatively high in comparison to European rates and a key attraction for foreign investors, also rose sharply after the unexpectedly strong employment report.


The euro has been in a long slide and slipped below $1.10 on Thursday, when the European Central Bank set a Monday start for its 1.1 trillion euro bond-buying program, designed to lower euro zone interest rates and spur growth.

The 30-year Treasury fell sharply in price, which lifted its yield to 2.8703 percent, a high not seen in more than two months.

CFTC data shows nothing drastical yet, since it was released on 3rd of March – before NFP release. We just see shy increase in long position while short positions remain the same. It means that our “Short-to-Total” ratio has decreased slightly from previous 83,8%. But this does not help us much. It will be interesting to see how positions of investors has changed after NFP release and first tranche of EU QE on 9th of March.

Open interest:

Shorts:

Longs:

It seems that this is not best times for EUR. It stands after pressure from multiple sides – USD becomes stronger, inner problems, such as Greece, not stable pace of economy growth, absence of unite position on geopolitical questions among EU members and instability on eastern borders lead to EUR drop.
Currently Greece question has moved on second plan, but situation there is far from solution. This situation is important mostly not because of pure financial perspective of Greece, but because of geopolitical situation. Here and there we hear separation callings – Greece, Spain, Flanders, North Italy etc. Of cause there is a different degree of callings but precedent is here and financial tensions in Greece are very dangerous issue.
Reuters reports that Greece sent its euro zone partners an augmented list of proposed reforms on Friday but EU officials said several more steps were required before any release of aid funds to a country that Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras says has a noose around its neck.
Struggling to scrape together cash and avoid possible default, Athens made a 310 million euro partial loan repayment to the International Monetary Fund, while Tsipras pleaded to be allowed to issue more short-term debt to plug a funding gap. Greece is running out of options to fund itself despite striking a deal with the euro zone in February to extend its EU/IMF bailout by four months.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has refused to raise a limit on Athens' issuance of three-month treasury bills which Greek banks buy with emergency central bank funds. He said on Thursday the EU treaty prohibited indirect monetary financing of governments. "The ECB has still got a rope around our neck," the leftist Greek premier complained in an interview with German magazine Der Spiegel released on Friday. If the ECB continued to object, it would be assuming a grave responsibility, he said.
One key condition for Greece to receive any more euro zone money is for Athens to reach an agreement with its three international creditors - the euro zone, the ECB and the IMF - on the implementation of reforms agreed by the previous government. Such talks have not even begun yet.
Greece must repay a total of 1.5 billion euros to the IMF over the next two weeks against a backdrop of dwindling tax revenues, frozen bailout funds and economic stagnation. Three other instalments are due on March 13, 16 and 20.
So Greece shows patience yet, but how long they could force themselves to show it. As more pressure will be on new Greece government and president as stronger radical sentiment will appear and pre-election Seriza rhetoric could become a reality.
Ukraine turmoil leads to stronger disagreement in EU. While Poland, UK call for strict being in the wake of US policy – France, Germany, Hungary and some other EU members start to understand all hazards of this way and now are trying to act as independent players on geopolitical scene running for their own interests.
Meantime situation in Ukraine is also far from stability. OCSE was needed to ask for more powers – get heavy metal forces dislocation, just to name some. There was a strong concern announced in UN Security Council about fake pullback of heavy metals by Ukrainian side. Also there was reasonable and not very comfortable question asked – if we tend to demilitarization, why we need US troops in Ukraine? So, situation is blur and far from transparency. All these moments obviously are not supportive for EU currency.

Technicals
Monthly
Speaking in two words – miracle has not happened. EUR has collapsed. Although we have expected that EUR will continue movement to parity but this should happen a bit later, after retracement up. So our hopes were completely deceived and market just miserably dropped lower through very strong support area. This shows us how market really weak is.
January was dreadful month for EUR. We have plunge that we haven’t seen since 2008 crisis. EUR has passed through YPP and YPS1 with a blink of an eye – it needs just 3 weeks to pass through yearly barrier. Right now currency has passed through rock hard support area – monthly oversold, major 5/8 Fib level, AB=CD target and 1.27 extension target.
Still as we have said previously, despite whether we get retracement or not - downward action will continue. EUR has dropped to 1.27 butterfly target too fast. Odds suggest continuation to 1.618 extension. By the way, the same suggestion we could make based on AB-CD. CD leg is also too fast. But where does it stand? Right – at 1.0 point, parity. This is our next destination point by far. Market action right now is very fast. EUR passes for week distances that previously it has passed for months. As market has passed through major support area and not at oversold, we probably should start to search opportunities for short entry with target around parity.

Weekly
So, guys, on previous week we had big plans for weekly chart and expected DRPO “Buy” pattern that nicely could confirm monthly pullback setup. But we haven’t got any DRPO, market just dropped lower. Could we suggest that DRPO is still possible? Is it too big difference between bottoms? Probably yes. The problem mostly stands even not with big difference between bottoms of DRPO, but in market mechanics. DRPO is pattern that based on capitulation of bears. But here we do not see it – even more, we see that bears take control over market. We see only 1 possibility for DRPO here – if market within next week will show unprecedented upside action to 1.16 area of Fib resistance and YPR1. Other words we need the same issue that we’ve discussed yesterday – move above former lows. But now this move has to be fast and thrusting. If this will not happen – we will start chances to take short position and sell rallies.
And finally just few observations – take a look what a minor bounce was from oversold at monthly Fib support, butterfly and AB=CD completing points. Market just re-tested YPR1. Now EUR stands below this former support cluster – what the chances on upside reversal? It seems that hardly they will be very significant. Next FOMC meeting will come on 17-18th of March and investors mostly will wait for it.

Daily
Daily chart clarifies, why we think that situation could change only if market will move back to 1.16 area. Trend is bearish at all time frames, but on daily chart market oversold and completed 1.618 butterfly “Buy”. Depending on type of reaction on this issue we will understand what to expect next. If bounce up will be lazy and market just will re-test 1.10 Fib resistance and former lows – downward action will continue. If, instead, upside action will fast and thrusting – this could lead to appearing of H&S pattern. So we need price return to 1.16 neckline to show us its pace. Still, on coming week hardly EUR will move above 1.12-1.13 area due existence of daily overbought and Fib resistance.
To be honest guys, I do not believe much in this upside reversal due reasons that we’ve explained above. Besides, even here – EUR has hit both butterfly extensions within single trading session. It is very difficult to call this action as “bullish”. But as we need to wait for rally anyway (either for short entry or to confirm reversal) – let’s see how this rally will develop.

4-Hour
Intraday charts do not show yet any patterns. Trend here is bearish as well. Also we see that market has created K-resistance around former lows and WPR1. Scalp traders could watch for reversal patterns here and try to trade at least minor upside rally due daily butterfly. As market is oversold on daily chart – reaching of 1.10 resistance does not seem as impossible.

Conclusion:
Right now it is very difficult to understand how geopolitical and inner economical situation will impact on EUR. There are too many uncertainty and variables. In long-term perspective we expect parity.
Theoretically EUR has phantom chances drastically change situation, but it needs to show fast and furious rally right to 1.16 area. In this case EUR could form, say H&S pattern. Anyway we need some bounce up – either for taking short position if it will be slow, or to get demonstration of EUR bullish ambitions, if rally will be fast.



The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.

 

[Sive Morten]

FX Daily Update, Tue 10, March 2015

Good morning,


Reuters reports dollar hit an eight-year high versus the yen and scaled a near 12-year peak against the euro on Tuesday, as the underlying theme of monetary policy divergence held sway.

Giving the greenback an extra lift in the Asian session, the Australian dollar sagged to a five-week low after a measure of Chinese producer prices showed the risk of deflation rising in the world's second-largest economy.

The dollar received a firm boost late last week as a strong U.S. jobs report helped cement expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates as early as mid-year.

The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, in contrast, remain deeply committed to monetary easing with the former having just started its 1 trillion euro bond buying programme on Monday.

"Monetary policy divergence and a weak euro already support the dollar, and a rise by equities - and thus enhanced risk appetite - will be key for further gains. The dollar will look to build a foothold above 122 yen depending on how U.S. stocks fare later in the session," said Junichi Ishikawa, market analyst at IG Securities in Tokyo.

A lot of speculative bids from short-term players are likely to support the dollar until next week's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), when the Fed could drop the word 'patient', said Kyosuke Suzuki, director of forex at Societe Generale in Tokyo.

Any move to exclude "patient" from the Fed's statement after its March 17-18 policy meeting in the wake of strong employment would be seen as paving the way for an earlier rate hike.

Amid such expectations a significant overnight drop in U.S. Treasury yields, usually a negative factor for the dollar, failed to douse the greenback's strength.

The euro stooped to $1.0785 , lowest since September 2003, after an overnight spike to 1.0906 fizzled out.

In addition to the decline in yields of key euro zone debt like German bunds following the ECB's bond-buying launch, the common currency was also weighed down by continuing uncertainty over Greece's debt situation.

Finance experts from Greece will open talks about economic reforms on Wednesday with officials from the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund with the aim of unlocking further funding.

Already on the back foot from the U.S. currency's broad strength, the Australian dollar sank to a five-week low of $0.7630 in the wake of the lacklustre Chinese producer price data.

The Aussie often trades as a proxy to China's economic performance.

Its appeal hurt after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates to a record low last month, a drop below $0.7627 would take the Aussie to a six-year trough.


Today, guys, we will take a look at GBP. Actually all market have turn to action after NFP. Our long-term and old setups have got second brief - recall our expectations of JPY upside action, NZD drop etc... Now they have become valid setups and we will continue to watch over them.
But right now GBP. Here we have mostly tactical issue but why we should not exploit this thrusting action one more time? We will use the same thrust down, that initially was our weekly B&B "sell" trade, but today we will try to use it for opposite direction.
Daily chart shows that GBP stands at support. It is not very impressive, but still - daily oversold, deep minor 0.88 Fib level and MPS1. So, some bounce has chances to happen.
During recent strong drop on GBP - market has rallied out from oversold for ~150-200 pips. So, if we will apply the same harmonic swing here - our potential target stands around 1.5250 area:

On 4-hour chart we see that thrust really nice. Here I apply even just part of it. But I suspect that we could use here even whole thrust. Anyway - market has not reached 3/8 resistance during first crossing of 3x3 DMA. It means that all steam in the pot yet and investors have not taken profit yet. Now we need close above 3x3 again for confirmation of DRPO. Also I prefer to get approximately equal bottoms, but who knows, will we get them or not... Target, btw coincides with daily harmonic swings - 50% Fib resistance stands around 1.5230:

 

[Sive Morten]

FX Daily Update, Wed 11, March 2015

Good morning,


Recent Reuters news on FX markets:
The euro fell to a fresh 12-year low against the dollar on Wednesday, extending a broad decline after the European Central Bank kicked off its 1 trillion euro bond-buying programme this week.

The ECB began printing money to buy sovereign bonds on Monday with a view to supporting growth and lifting euro zone inflation from below zero. Yields on the debt of nearly all euro zone countries dropped to record lows overnight.

"With the ECB beginning its quantitative easing, there's definitely a sense that funds are flowing out," said Mitul Kotecha, head of FX strategy, Asia-Pacific for Barclays in Singapore.

"It's not a one-way flow, but there is this expectation with ECB QE that there is going to be substantial outflows from Europe, as QE intensifies," he said.

German 10-year yields dropped to 0.226 percent , below the 10-year Japanese government bond yield of 0.430 percent . The two-year German bond offered a negative yield of 0.235 percent .

The euro slid to $1.0666 , extending Tuesday's 1.4 percent drop to lows not seen since April 2003 and opening up the way to the 2003 trough of $1.0501. It last stood at $1.0671, down about 0.2 percent on the day.

It hit a seven-year low against sterling at 70.79 pence early on Wednesday and touched 129.21 yen versus its Japanese peer, its lowest since August 2013.

The common currency also has been pressured by persistent uncertainty about cash-strapped Greece as it gears up to resume talks with creditors in Brussels later in the day. Many fear the possibility that Greece could exit from the euro zone, and Italy's economy minister warned this outcome should be avoided.

Upbeat U.S. employment data on Friday heightened market speculation that the Federal Reserve could lift interest rates by the middle of this year.

"With key USD pairs rapidly overtaking many forecasts once viewed as aggressive and hitting established trading targets, many market participants are unsurprisingly questioning whether moves have been excessive and could be prone to correction," analysts at BNP Paribas wrote in a note to clients, though they left their recommendations on major pairs intact.

"We remain long USD, continuing to target 1.05 in EURUSD and 125 in USDJPY."

Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar slumped to a six-year trough of $0.7588 , on track to test $0.7451, its lowest since May 18, 2009.

Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said on Wednesday that the fall in the local dollar was starting to help the economy.

Further weighing on the Aussie, China, its biggest trading partner, will release industrial output, retail sales and investment data later in the day. All are expected to show slowing growth.



Today guys, we again will take a look at GBP. On EUR - drop continues. As market has passed 500 pips for 2 days, our target @ 1.0 could come even sooner than we expected. Since it already stands rather close to current market our view on EUR does not need update yet.
But on GBP market shows some progress. As chances on scalp DRPO Buy" Still exist - let's take a look at it.
Potential trade is mostly based on on support on daily chart - WPS1 and oversold. Besides, 1.4977 is YPS1. This level, in fact, has triggered previous rally that we've sold on our B&B trade...
Action that we see right now is not very impressive and does not let us to say "no doubts - we get DRPO "Buy". Market action mostly looks like retracement and this is not good sign when you expect reversal pattern. On daily chart right now it even looks like bearish flag:

Since this is mostly short-term trade - our major chart is 4 hour, where pattern should appear. Actually guys, we have two issues here. First of all - we've got nice second bottom of DRPO pattern approximately at the same levels as first one. But what is even more important - second bottom is slightly lower. So, we have shy W&R of first lows. This is good for DRPO potential.
And as you can see we already have second close above 3x3 DMA. So, theoretically pattern has been confirmed:

The one thing that hasitates a bit is lazy action. But right now hourly chart shows that situation becomes better. On hourly chart we also have bullish divergence and something like wedge pattern. Market is trying to break it up right now...

That's being said, this is of cause not perfect example of DRPO, we've seen better. But still all neccesary conditions have been accomplished. If you still will decide to trade it - put stops, slightly higher than lows of DRPO, say on the level of first DRPO Bottom. If market will drop back - this will significantly increase chances on DRPO Failure - this is also directional pattern, btw that demand reverse previous position down. But combining and shifting from DRPO to DRPO failure also demands corresponding skills...
Placing stops below lows could catch you on slipage and downward acceleration and does not make sense.

 

[Sive Morten]

GBP/USD Daily Update, Thu 12, March 2015

Good morning,


Reuters reports euro slumped to a new 12-year low on Thursday, reeling from an unrelenting onslaught after the European Central Bank started its quantitative easing

(QE) campaign, highlighting the monetary policy divergence between the euro zone and the U.S.

The 1 trillion euro bond-buying programme the ECB launched on Monday by has dented the common currency's appeal by driving yields of many euro zone bonds deeper into negative territory and others to all-time lows.

A 30-year German bond now offers a yield below that of a two-year U.S. Treasury note .

The euro fell as far as $1.0505 , the lowest since March 2003. A further slide would only heat up talk of parity with the dollar, a phenomenon last witnessed in 2002. The euro was last at $1.0511.

Furthermore, developments in Greece did the euro no favours, with Athens appearing to have made no headway in persuading euro zone partners to renegotiate terms of a 240 billion euro bailout.

The market awaited U.S. indicators including retail sales due later in the session to see if the latest data can reinforce the notion of an earlier interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, a notion that has given the dollar such kick since last Friday's robust employment numbers.

The plight of the euro, which has coincided with a rise in euro zone equities with Germany's DAX scaling record highs, drew comparisons with what the yen experienced when the Bank of Japan unleashed its own bond buying-driven QE scheme.

The BOJ began its current QE programme in April 2013 and enhanced it in October 2014. The dollar has soared from 93 yen to around 122 yen while the Nikkei share average has climbed a 15-year peak since the QE launch.

"The situation is identical to what has taken place in Japan, when investors like foreign players sold the yen and bought stocks. Under ECB's easing, prospects for euro zone shares are good while the euro looks bleak. Selling the euro and buying shares becomes a natural combination," said Koji Fukaya, president at FPG Securities in Tokyo.

Against sterling, the euro fell to its lowest in over seven years at 70.11 pence . It slumped to a near two-year trough 127.64 yen .

The dollar index came within a whisker of 100.00 for the first time since April 2003. Versus the yen, the greenback traded at 121.64 , not far off an eight-year peak of 122.04 set on Tuesday.

Elsewhere, the New Zealand dollar advanced after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand sounded less dovish than markets had positioned for and kept interest rates steady at 3.5 percent.

"When you look through the statement, the threshold for cutting the cash rate right now is perhaps a little bit higher than what markets have been anticipating," said Nick Tuffley, economist at ASB Bank.

The kiwi fetched $0.7294 after pulling away from a five-week trough of $0.7191 struck overnight.


So, guys, as yesterday we have disccussed detailed plan dedicated to DRPO "Buy" on GBP - how to trade it, where place stop, how to reverse trade and where take profit, today we will discuss results. If you want, you can watch for my trades in video where I show where I've entered in direct trade and what has happened next.
So, currently we do not need daily chart, since our pattern stands on 4-hour time frame. Context for DRPO "Buy" was good. We have excellent thrust down, first rally above 3x3 DMA has not reached Fib resistance and this is important issue for DRPO, bottoms of DRPO were almost equal and second bottom shows shy W&R. THis also was advantage.

So, our trade has been triggered at second close above 3x3 DMA. We said that stop should be placed at level of first bottom of DRPO - slightly higher than second bottom. This was 1.5031. Simultaneously this level had to be reverse one - where we have to shift our position from long to short, because this is the level where direct DRPO turns to DRPO Failure. This is also DiNapoli directional pattern.
Personally I've applied stop entry order with double size that simultaneously close direct long position and opens short. DRPO Failure assumes different targets for profit. You may close trade at breakeven point or close position at upside cross of 3x3 DMA. I've chosen the latter and close position few minutes ago (you can see results in video).
So, as you can see trading and shifting DRPO's is not very simple, but at the same time this is not something outstanding. It just demands discipline and fast mind shifting without doubts to change direction of your trade. If you have created clear plan that assumes this scenario and prepared for that - everything will be OK.

 

[Sive Morten]

NZD/USD Daily Update, Fri 13, March 2015

Good morning,


Reuters reports U.S. dollar nursed modest losses on Friday after investors booked profits in an extended rally that has driven the greenback to successive multi-year peaks this week.

An unexpected fall in U.S. retail sales gave the market an excuse to sell the dollar, which promptly retreated from a 12-year high against a basket of major currencies.

"The overnight session witnessed the long overdue consolidation in USD," analysts at CitiFX wrote in a research note to clients.

"Our trading desk thinks it represents a generally healthy corrective move. Indeed, we have seen good USD demand on dips. Turnover is very high across the G10 space."

The dollar index, however, is still on track to end the week up more than 2 percent, extending last week's 2.5 percent rally.

With no major market-moving economic data due on Friday, the dollar could continue to consolidate a little further, traders said.

Against the yen, the dollar slipped to 121.34 yen , pulling away from a near eight-year high of 122.04.

It also lost ground against the euro , which popped up to $1.0613, from a 12-year trough of $1.0494. The common currency was still poised to drop more than 2 percent this week.

The common currency was also given a bit of a reprieve by a bounce in some euro zone government bond yields, which hit record lows this week as the European Central Bank kicked off its 1 trillion euro bond buying program.

The German 10-year bond yield , for example, rebounded to 0.249 percent after sliding to an all-time low of 0.187 percent overnight.

"Euro zone debt may look a little over-valued. They will of course remain well bid under ECB's bond buying scheme, but their gains have been too rapid. The euro may thus hold in range in the short term, especially with dollar demand ebbing a little ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting," said Masashi Murata, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in Tokyo.

The Fed convenes on March 17-18 for a policy meeting and the market is keen to interpret the central bank's monetary policy stance after expectations for a mid-year interest rate hike increased in light of last week's robust employment data.

In the meantime, concerns about Greece continued to bubble in the background. The cash-strapped country has embarked on technical talks with its international creditors to agree reforms and unlock further funding, but there is growing frustration with Athens.

The greenback also eased against commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar, which climbed to around 77 U.S. cents from a six-year low of $0.7561 set on Wednesday.

Sterling, however, made no headway against the broadly softer dollar after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney signalled he was in no rush to raise interest rates, dashing some expectations of a hike in early 2016.


In February we've prepared research on NZD where we said that downward action there is very possible, but later when market has postoned downward start and GBP weekly trade has started - we have shifted to another currencies.
Now we have a lot of questions what about NZD. So let's take a look at it in short-term perspective.
On weekly chart we could get at today's close weekly bullish grabber that will suggest taking out of previous highs. Let's treat this target as ultimate:

Despite grabber, on daily chart we have nice morning star pattern right at daily oversold and MPS1. Common approach to trading of this pattern is to follow AB=CD on intraday chart where AB is candlestick pattern:

On 4-hour chart we see another bullish signs - trend has turned bullish and current upside swing is reversal one:

After reversal swing market usually takes compound AB=CD retracement rather than just 1-leg AB retracement. Thus, based on hourly chart we could get "222" Buy with AB=CD down right to K-support area. Thus, if you would like to trade this setup, you could watch for 0.7330-0.7346 K-support and Agreement Area. Conservative target is 0.618 AB=CD up, moderate target is whole AB=CD while ultimate one, as we've said - weekly grabber and taking of former top.

 

[cosmos]

very good. thank you.

 

[onenikos]

Dear Sive and All,
The Eurogroup meeting on Monday should come out with an acceptance of the proposed restructuring plan of 6 points by Greece, along with some more specifics and additions submitted today. Chances are 9 to 1 that the proposals will be accepted, and the standstill be resolved. The issue being the insistence of certain EU power centers that the reforms that EU had "ordered" the previous government to implement should be implemented by this government. There is no possibility for this government to implement those reforms as they were elected precisely on the promise not to. but more importantly due to the fact that the population does not have the means to comply with further taxation while more than half the population below poverty and the rest just surviving, while at 35% unemployment. The "grave responsibility" that the ECB is assuming according to the PM is not a threat - but a grave reality that chances an EU zone member to "officially" default WITHIN THE EUZONE, as contrary to rhetoric, there is no legal provision or way for a EUzone member to be thrown out. In my opinion the financial pressure exerted to Greece has to do with the fact that the new government is not ready to support further suctions to Russia and the recent example of Cyprus (where both finances and military bases were agreed with Russia) is possible to be repeated by Greece. As a matter of fact they are ready for a number of bi-lateral agreements. My information and the above is the reason I give a 9 to 1 on the Monday's meeting as I do not think that they will want to pull the string any tighter as it is ready to break! If I am right, a positive outcome from the meeting might trigger the retracement, giving entry - reentry opportunities.

 

[Sive Morten]

Dear Sive and All,
The Eurogroup meeting on Monday ....

Hi Nikos, thanks for good insight. Your comments on Greece situation are valuable, as always.

 

[cosmos]

a long view

Once again, the quarterly and yearly charts both show support targets around 1.0800. One is the ABCD shown with blue lines targetting 1.08046. The other is a long term diagonal line targetting 1.08165. Both show potential for a bounce, but, if not, the 1.27 extension of this ABCD goes to 0.96836.

 

[cosmos]

EURUSD-weekly

For some weekly target on the EURO, we could perhaps look at the 1.618 extension of weekly thrust down from 1.3993, around 1.0470.