FOREX PRO Weekly May 07-11, 2012

[m0z1]

Dear Sive

Can we use the current thrust on 4hr chart as a possibility for a DRPO buy if it forms?

Thanks
Mili

 

[Sive Morten]

Dear Sive

Can we use the current thrust on 4hr chart as a possibility for a DRPO buy if it forms?

Thanks
Mili

Hi Mili,
theoretically, yes, thrust counts 9 bars, but I prefer to have solid foundation on higher time frame. Since we're in semi-position to 1.618 I'm not sure that this will be very fascinating trade.
But, again, theoretically it is possible.

 

[Jamir0n]

Market has reached our support zone 1.29-1.2950,but not.

Major area to watch is K-resistance around 1.3010-1.3015. If you will take a look at hourly chart you'll see why it is important.

This could shift to 3-Drive buy pattern, if market will show retracement to 1.3010 area. Also we have nice divergence with MACD that is very common for 3-Drives.

So, conclusion is as follows - retracement to 1.3010-1.3015 area is possible, but there is a great probability that market will reach 1.2890-1.2900 area before any solid reversal action (if it will happen at all of cause). If even we will be wrong, market probably still will respect 1.29 area since this is signficant support.

First of, thanks for the invaluble services you provide FPA community. Secondly, imho, we need to pay attention at mony flow, distribution/accumilation plus the overwhole supply/demand data to trade with certainty in todays hostile financial markets.

Please respond, your input is of much value to me, mr. Sive.

Thanx again,
M.

 

[Sive Morten]

First of, thanks for the invaluble services you provide FPA community. Secondly, imho, we need to pay attention at mony flow, distribution/accumilation plus the overwhole supply/demand data to trade with certainty in todays hostile financial markets.

Please respond, your input is of much value to me, mr. Sive.

Thanx again,
M.

Hi, Jamir0n
This tools hardly could be used on Forex, since this is not centralized market. What accumulation distribution data will you get? Probably of some local market maker at the best. The problem is that you can get this data for whole currency market, hence you can't rely on it.

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Fri 11, May 2012

Good morning,
In fact, there was no much action on previous day, but our assumption was correct - looks like market still gravitates to daily AB=CD's targets and has hit the first one.
Second target stands around 1.2890-1.29 level and I suppose that price should touch it before any kind of upward move could start.

On 4-hour chart we see the same picture as yesterday, just Fib levels have moved a bit lower since market created a new low. Here is the context for DPRO "Buy" LAL, but I do not like it for two reasons. First is because consolidation between tops almost equals the length of the thrust, second is because market has significant target below. This DRPO has no solid support under it that's why it is not very reliable. I will not trade it, but you make your own decision.

Hourly chart shows that our assumption of 3-Drive pattern hardly could be supported currently, since market has shown retracement just to nearest Fib resistance yesterday. Better to treat current situation on hourly chart just as combination of 1.27-1.618 extensions right around daily AB=CD target.
I suspect that today-Monday trading sessions we will get the answer what to expect from market in nearest perspective. If market will show some thrust up today - this could lead to bullish stop grabber on Weekly TF - that is a confidence that we need to justify long entry.

 

[Lolly Tripathy]

Thank you

 

[erich]

hi Sive,
thanks for your daily work!!!
some hints:
yesterday on daily chart we see a pin bar or reverse hammer; a warning sign that EURUSD could lead to more than 100% ext. you mentioned in the video;
I calculate with the resistance of the MS2 an WS3 pivots at about 1,2800;
a fast return from this level and by the way the 78,6% level for the bullish Gartley buy pattern on weekly TF could lead to the big ABC-D point at 1,37;
do you think if euro leaves the 1,2890 level downwards that bears pressure could be to strong for a reversal at 1,2800?
thanks again, Erich

 

[Lolly Tripathy]

now i am +40pips shud i continue this or it will again retest that lower area to hit the 2nd daily target..??

 

[pragmatic]

Hello Sive!
I have a question that bothers me for a while. Is there a rule in situations like this that we are having on EUR? I am referring to the daily target 100% expansions and the 1.27 and 1.618 expansions of the H4 butterfly. Should they all be hit or just the 100% expansions?
Thank you!

 

[Sive Morten]

hi Sive,
thanks for your daily work!!!
some hints:
yesterday on daily chart we see a pin bar or reverse hammer; a warning sign that EURUSD could lead to more than 100% ext. you mentioned in the video;
I calculate with the resistance of the MS2 an WS3 pivots at about 1,2800;
a fast return from this level and by the way the 78,6% level for the bullish Gartley buy pattern on weekly TF could lead to the big ABC-D point at 1,37;
do you think if euro leaves the 1,2890 level downwards that bears pressure could be to strong for a reversal at 1,2800?
thanks again, Erich

Hi Erich,
the reason why I think so is due weekly trend. In situation that you've described all trends will turn bearish - monthly-weekly-daily. In this case it is difficult to hope for some upward move, especially if you recall huge black candle on monthly time frame. Remember, that we treat potential weekly move to 1.37 only as a retracement.

Hello Sive!
I have a question that bothers me for a while. Is there a rule in situations like this that we are having on EUR? I am referring to the daily target 100% expansions and the 1.27 and 1.618 expansions of the H4 butterfly. Should they all be hit or just the 100% expansions?
Thank you!

Well there is no such rule that it should definitely happen. It just following from nature of markets. Markets never forms reversal pattern on higher time frames without some corresponding action on lower ones. Thats why it is very probable that as daily patterns as 4-hour ones will be touched.