FOREX PRO WEEKLY, May 07-11, 2018

[RogerTC]

Another good opportunity may in gbp/cad.

Market retracing back from secondary montly OP expansion.

Looking our weekly; Even it is the fourth bar below 3*3 bar, I will treat it as B&B in play. Market holding nice confluence support at 1.7390

If we look at our daily resistance fibnodes, minimum target of this move should be 1.7750-1.7770.

 

[Synchronicity]

https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/community/members/synchronicity.27481/

If Michael will not take the order (he is rather busy), send me private mail, I'll give you another person, who could do this. (Our member Kamuta.)

Thanks for the recommendation Sive but I don't take commissions for coding. Anything I do is for my own use, or if it is good enough I share it for free.

I am working on a major rewrite of the Fibtree indicator which adds new features and will be the baseline that I translate for MQL5. Unfortunately I learned the hard way about some problems with my backup regime and have had to work from an older version :-( My university course ends in a couple of weeks so after that I'll get a lot more time to work on it.

All the best

Michael

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,
a lot of important events have happened recently. First of all, of course - Iran nuclear deal cancelling by US.

"Trump on Tuesday pulled the United States out of an international nuclear deal with Iran, raising the risk of conflict in the Middle East, upsetting European allies and casting uncertainty over global oil supplies."

Another issue is too different forecasts on EU and US interest policy:

Forecasts for rising rates in the euro zone, by contrast, are being pushed back. Euro zone money markets now price roughly a 75 percent chance of a 10 basis point hike from the European Central Bank by mid-2019, scaling back bets on a rate rise given a softening in economic data and inflation.

Finally, EU has its own political issue as new elections in Italy stands on horizon:
"Worries about political uncertainty in Italy, which faces fresh elections, is also weighing on the single currency."

Sentiment towards the euro cooled after Italian President Sergio Mattarella’s call to bickering political parties to rally behind a “neutral government” were met with immediate opposition and raised the prospect of elections being held as early as July.


“The dollar is in a firm position to gain against its European peers as rhetoric from central banks such as the ECB and the Bank of England is perceived to have turned dovish,” said Shin Kadota, senior strategist at Barclays in Tokyo.

Now let's update technical view. On EUR, guys, nothing new we could say, except may be that it has hit our XOP target around 1.1830. But it just has happened, so it is unclear yet what response will follow, so we will keep an eye on it.

Meantime, kiwi dollar follows our second scenario and reached deeper XOP target. That was a risk factor that we've discussed yesterday:

So, major target has been met, and butterfly "buy" pattern that we've discussed yesterday also has been formed. So, if you're searching chance for scalp long trade, you could either stick with this butterfly, or wait for reverse H&S pattern and try to take position on the bottom of right arm.
Others, who trade on daily TF could wait for either DRPO "Buy" or B&B "Sell" patterns:

 

[Sive Morten]

Hello everybody,

Today we will take a look at CAD. EUR and GBP have reached important levels, but no reaction has followed yet, thus, nothing to discuss by far. But on CAD, there is a setup that could be interesting, because loonie stands in center of recent events of Iran nuclear deal cancelling, as it has tight relation to oil.

On daily chart CAD shows failure upside breakout that takes shape of good bearish engulfing pattern. This happens right around major 5/8 resistance:

On 4H TF it looks like failure upside breakout of consolidation. Usually when price shows fake breakout - real one should follow but in opposite direction. Now there is just one concern how it should happen - either direct drop or after retracement.
Retracement is better scenario for us, as it should give chance to go short. Besides - overall action will take the shape of H&S pattern in this case with target around 1.27-1.2720.
Taking in consideration engulfing on daily TF, chances on retracement are not bad as it usually happens with engulfing pattern...

 

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

Today we could turn back to EUR again, as market shows some signs of pullback right out from our daily XOP target. Still, this bounce is not sufficient yet to any daily patterns - neither B&B nor DRPO because it is too small by far. The only important detail exist for daily chart (which you can't see on the chart) - EUR is oversold at weekly TF. This could lead to significant bounce, even if initially it looks shy, as we see now.

Today, probably, we could make some trading plan for intraday charts. In fact, on daily we've got morning star pattern, which usually works in the same manner as engulfing - small downside retracement first and upside action second. Usually this pattern has a target equals to the length of its bars:

On 4H TF we've got small DPRO "Buy" but mostly it is completed already. What is really important Here is Fib levels. We have 1.1965 and 1.2040-1.2060 K-area:

On 1H potentially we could get reverse H&S which is very typical shape of daily morning star/engulfing patterns. But first - market should finish with initial AB-CD pattern right at the bottom. OP target already has been hit, while XOP stands around 1.1965. Take a look, that if market will hold above 1.1870 lows - it also could form a butterfly "Sell" with 1.27 extension right in the same 1.1965. But on 4H TF this is first 3/8 Fib resistance.
So, this is our trading plan for today - currently EUR has good chances to reach first 1.1965 target today. After it will be hit, some pullback is probable.

Breakout through 1.1870 lows will destroy this bullish setup.

 

[FreddyFX]

Muchas gracias, Master Sive, for your analyses this week. FINALLY a week with excellent trading results on this side. Keep it up !!!
Wishing ALL a SUPER weekend !!!