Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, May 18 - 22, 2020

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
13,394
Morning guys,

Now we have to switch between EUR and GBP every time, as we have setups at both currencies. As on EUR overall picture is still the same, I hope that recent momentum should be enough to push EUR at least to 1.10 and complete our 1H XOP target. Currently it seems that optimism starts to fade. On daily GBP we have bullish pattern, but it doesn't mean that we definitely get the reversal - it might be just a retracement inside of bearish trend. That's why we've said - keep watching on how stable the effect of the news will be. Not it seems that it is not too stable...
gbp_d_20_05_20.png


Anyway, if even we get just upside AB=CD, it also has not bad potential. Here is two things to mention. Market now is dropping out from K-resistance area. First - we've got upside bullish reversal swing, that is positive. Second - usually, after reversal swing retracement should be deep. Thus, chances to get 50-60% pullback are significant:
gbp_4h_20_05_20.png


On 1 H chart we consider two levels. They are the levels where we could try to go long. But at the same time they are indicators of sentiment. If GBP breaks them both - we're going to 1.1880 daily support area.
Manage entry in a way that is better to you. You could wait for XOP to enter, you could split position into parts, or you could enter after upward action will start, using DiNapoli "Minesweeper" entry technique.
gbp_1h_20_05_20.png


And don't forget to manage your stops, move them to breakeven as market moves 15-20 pips in your favor. Background is bullish, but it is fragile now.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
13,394
Morning everybody,

Today we take a look at EUR. On daily chart I want to remind you that 1.10 area is not just "natural" resistance. This is K-area. It has been tested few times now it is tested again, but it is still valid. Daily major target is COP at 1.1040. That is what we're watching today and tomorrow:
eur_d_21_05_20.png


On 4H chart EUR hits our XOP target. Based on this picture next target cluster stands in 1.1060-1.1080 area that approx. coincides with daily COP. Here we should be careful. EUR should not show too deep retracement, reaction on XOP. Until 1.09 area - it is OK. Deep retracement will be negative for chances of bullish scenario that we have:
eur_4h_21_05_20.png


On 1H chart it would be better if retracement stops at K area of 1.0920-1.0940 area. Appearing of H&S suggests action to 1.0875-1.09. Thus, use this information to your trades. A lot of ways exist how to enter. I've talked about it in video today.
eur_1h_21_05_20.png


That's being said our basic scenario suggests retracement not deeper than 1.0875 area and then upside continuation to ~1.1050 area.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
13,394
Morning guys,

let's keep up with the EUR. On daily chart we have nothing new - trend is bullish, slow pullback from K-area and the same COP target:
eur_d_22_05_20.png


On 4H chart yesterday we've discussed acceptable depth of retracement. This is no lower than 1.0885-1.09. While market stands above it - it keeps bullish scenario. Now, as you can see - everything is OK by far

eur_4h_22_05_20.png


As we've suggested, on 1H chart it might be H&S pattern and bingo - here it is, stands in progress. Drop to neckline is finalized by puny butterfly pattern. Yesterday, in the video, we've discussed how position could be taken, based on this pattern. Bulls could consider gradual enter, starting from neckline, or just wait for 5/8 Fib support and completion of AB-CD pattern down. Bears could think about scalp short at the top of the right arm around 1.0970 area:
eur_1h_22_05_20.png
 
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