Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,685
Morning guys,
There is one technical problem less on EUR, as Dollar index has dropped below grabbers lows and erase the pattern. Still, EUR denifinetly has problems with upside continuation, any action stands heavy, volatility has increased significantly, because political events and coming Fed meeting impact the market right now. We still keep our view the same - although short-term bullish setup is giving positive result, overall context is not very good for taking long position.
On daily chart price action takes clear shapes of retracement and it mostly has completed harmonic swing that EUR holds pretty nice. It means that our 3-Drive "Buy" setup with drop to 1.12 area is still possible. Market could turn down somewhere around or, at best, proceed slightly higher as you can see on 4H chart:
On 4H chart we have AB-CD OP target right at major Fib level. If you have long positions, it is possible to hold them with hope that market still will complete OP target. It is better to move stops to b/e. Trying to take long position right here is not very attractive, because of far stop that you will have to place, so risk/reward ratio will be close to 1.
On 1H chart we have the wedge pattern with clear signs of MACD divergence and this is not the fact that market indeed will move higher. The major area to watch here is lower border of the wedge and K-support area. If market will break it down - then our 3-Drive setup could become a reality. Don't take shorts until this area holds.
There is one technical problem less on EUR, as Dollar index has dropped below grabbers lows and erase the pattern. Still, EUR denifinetly has problems with upside continuation, any action stands heavy, volatility has increased significantly, because political events and coming Fed meeting impact the market right now. We still keep our view the same - although short-term bullish setup is giving positive result, overall context is not very good for taking long position.
On daily chart price action takes clear shapes of retracement and it mostly has completed harmonic swing that EUR holds pretty nice. It means that our 3-Drive "Buy" setup with drop to 1.12 area is still possible. Market could turn down somewhere around or, at best, proceed slightly higher as you can see on 4H chart:
On 4H chart we have AB-CD OP target right at major Fib level. If you have long positions, it is possible to hold them with hope that market still will complete OP target. It is better to move stops to b/e. Trying to take long position right here is not very attractive, because of far stop that you will have to place, so risk/reward ratio will be close to 1.
On 1H chart we have the wedge pattern with clear signs of MACD divergence and this is not the fact that market indeed will move higher. The major area to watch here is lower border of the wedge and K-support area. If market will break it down - then our 3-Drive setup could become a reality. Don't take shorts until this area holds.