FOREX PRO Weekly October 03-07, 2011

[yousuf]

hey sive.

hey sive,

the market has accomplished our plan and moved lower to 1.3270 and below,
you said to search for buy signals but found NONE.

however i did manage to find a possible stop grabber on the daily chart or ( potential )

pic attached.

Yousuf.


P.S : Do you think market will reach to daily oversold area of 1.3054, and then reverse?

 

[Sive Morten]

hey sive,

the market has accomplished our plan and moved lower to 1.3270 and below,
you said to search for buy signals but found NONE.

however i did manage to find a possible stop grabber on the daily chart or ( potential )

pic attached.

Yousuf.


P.S : Do you think market will reach to daily oversold area of 1.3054, and then reverse?

Hi Yousuf,
well, chances that market will show some reversal have become significantly lower. Still, we could wait one more trading session, since market stands at support (see update in next post).

Now about Stop grabber. The last bar on your chart is not the case, since stop grabber is a failure trend shifting, but last bar is just a trend shifting itself.
You can see stop grabber on your chart some bars to the left, where trend was bearish and market has tried to shifit it bullish but failed.

Hope that helps.

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Tue 04, October 2011

Good morning,

there are less and less chances that market will show something to the upside.
1.3230-1.3270 was a solid area of support. But market has pierced it for another 50 pips and reached 1.618 extension from our second drive. Trend has turned bearish and market created a new low as we've suggested according to bearish Dynamic pressure.
Market is not at oversold.

Still we can wait for another trading day, since market has reached AB-CD target from larger 4-hour pattern, minor Weekly Fib support at 1.32 area and, as I've said 1.618 extension from second drive. This is some kind of support.

On 4-hour chart we see perfect thrust down. So, we could see either B&B "Sell" or DRPO "Buy". That's why, probably it makes sense to watch for that patterns today.

If this will not happen and market will continue move down - then, next support is 1.2904-1.30 area - monthly Agreement.

 

[BackSpace]

3-Drive failure point.

quote/ Daily 3-Drive pattern has a failure point also, and this is 1.3684 – the high of second drive. If market will move above it before it will establish the third drive, then our suggestions about this pattern will appear to be wrong.
/unquote

Hi Sive,

You mention the failure point to the upside in your weekly analysis.
But what is the failure point to the downside of a 3-Drive pattern?

Thanks,

BackSpace

 

[nicolebobbin]

We are having Crab Pattern and Wolf Wave Pattern, so I expect up move should occur soon

 

[rijal]

usd/chf

Hi Sive:


Thank you for your time and help.I'm learning every day from you thank you again.
I need your opinion on a possible B&B signal that hase been formed on the monthly chart of the usd/chf and how to trade it ; such signal on high time frame is more attractive to trade. Since I have joined the FPA i never hade a chance to learn from you how to trade an important signal like B&B on higher time frame .
sorry I didn't attach no charts.

thank you again and again

 

[TraderBob]

Hey Nicloebobbin, what is the typical target for a crab formation?

also check out Forex Trading Online: Foreign Exchange (FX) Trading | Currency Trading and click on "school" its a great resource for fx in addition to this website which is pretty awesome.

 

[Sive Morten]

quote/ Daily 3-Drive pattern has a failure point also, and this is 1.3684 – the high of second drive. If market will move above it before it will establish the third drive, then our suggestions about this pattern will appear to be wrong.
/unquote

Hi Sive,

You mention the failure point to the upside in your weekly analysis.
But what is the failure point to the downside of a 3-Drive pattern?

Thanks,

BackSpace

Hi BackSpace,
I've partially mentioned about it in update. Since there could be 2 types of 3-Drive pattern - either those that has equal ratio between drives (say 1.618) or those where third drive should be at coincidense of first 1.618 and second 1.27 (this is almost the same as 1.27 3-Drive, but not quite the same).
That's why I prefer to treat 3-Drive "buy" as failed to downside, when market does not reverse in 1.618 of second drive but conitinues move lower. It very often happens with acceleration.

Hi Sive:


Thank you for your time and help.I'm learning every day from you thank you again.
I need your opinion on a possible B&B signal that hase been formed on the monthly chart of the usd/chf and how to trade it ; such signal on high time frame is more attractive to trade. Since I have joined the FPA i never hade a chance to learn from you how to trade an important signal like B&B on higher time frame .
sorry I didn't attach no charts.

thank you again and again

Hi Rijal.
I suggest you to make some context search on forum, since there are many posts with explanation.
Shortly speaking, you need drop your time frame and search for patterns that could trigger move of B&B. Speaking about CHF, you need "Sell" pattern.

The target is 0.618 support from whole retracement move up. But be careful with CHF, since SNB will support EUR/CHF rate at 1.20.

 

[Icarus]

A small diamond pattern forming on the 4-H time frame?

 

[yousuf]

hey sive.

i took a DRPO buy on 1 hour chart upto the 0.618 resistance of the recent move down, which is around 1.3300.

There was a bearish pin bar on the 4 hour chart on around strong resistance of 25x5 MA, 0.618 resistance and psychological level. so i took profit and took a short position, as BREAD&BUTTER "SELL" and the daily time frame trend is bearish too.

On the 4 hour chart, if we take point

A = 1.33805
B = 1.31454
C = 1.33152

OP = 1.30801 ( which is also daily oversold.)

There is also hidden bearish divergence on the 1 hour chart.

Pics attached.

Yousuf.