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FOREX PRO Weekly October 29- November 03, 2012

Discussion in 'Sive Morten- Currencies and Gold Video Analysis' started by Sive Morten, Oct 28, 2012.

  1. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Monthly
    That’s almost the same picture as on previous week. Market shows next regular pullback from Confluence resistance area. Trend holds bearish. October is still an inside month for September bar. All that we can see here is that market stands at long-term strong resistance. And I start to feel that this could be an end of upward retracement. Market still was not able to show higher upward swing, than previous downward one. It must be bear trend is still valid here.

    [​IMG]

    Weekly
    Weekly chart is most interesting at my point of view. I’ve drawn a lot of different stuff here, so let’s get through them. Trend is still bullish at weekly time frame. Market stands at resistance – major 3/8 Fib level and MPR1. First of all let’s talk about former potential bullish flag. I don’t want to rely on it. The price action that has followed to its breakout looks bearish. That is much like classical bullish trap, this is not the way how flag’s breakout should looks like. Probably we could adjust the line so that we have no breakout, but I suppose not in this time. This resistance is absolutely clear on daily time frame. The price return right back in the flag’s body tells that we should be ready for donward move, and this move on weekly time frame could be strong. Flag per se is amount of overlapping bars, some sort of indecision. Usually such stagnation is followed by acceleration and I think that it has more downward chances.
    Second moment is MPR1. We know that when market shows retracement on bear trend, usually MPR1 holds it. That has happened.
    Finally, take a look at blue lines. They were cloned. Downward swings are cloned from initial swing down, while upward swings from first upward retracement. Take a look what a harmony! Yes, on second couple of swings, upward retracement was slightly smaller, but downward swing was either. If we count both of them from “correct” point (as it shown on the chart), then they will finish in the same point as actual swings. Now we have equal upward retracement completed. If we suggest that this harmony will continue further, market should show swing to ~1.15. When I’ve seen this number, I’m suddenly recalled our quarterly analysis that we’ve done in November 2011 where we said about long-term forecast 1.16.
    http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-forum/sives-analysis-archive/17534-forex-pro-weekly-october-31-november-04-2011-a.html
    So, may be now it looks not as impossible as it was couple weeks ago... Anyway, guys, I probably more gravitate to conclusion that bears overweight bulls right now.
    [​IMG]
    Daily
    Trend holds bearish here. If you let me, I will not speak about Butterfly “Sell” scenario here that we’ve discussed previously. It probably hardly will come to live in nearest future. Now we see that market stands in progress of downward AB=CD pattern and “222”. It has hit first target – 0.618 extension, we’ve discussed it as well in our daily updates. Next target is 1.2765 that is very close to daily oversold and K-support area. But between current market and this target stands significant support level - WPS1=1.2852 and MPP. That is also previous swing low. Personally I do not like such neighborhood, because it could lead to ping-pong action and probably will demand farer stops if we will decide to enter short.
    Speaking about possible bullish development…well, for that we need significant upward acceleration, preferably above WPR1, some unnaturally deep upward retracement after just 0.618 target hitting. Currently I do not see any signs of it.
    [​IMG]
    4-hour
    Trend holds bearish here. We have a bit tricky situation. Form one point of view price stands at support and has shown some bounce from daily target in a way of W&R of previous low. From the other side, market has not quite hit 1.618 extension and has formed multiple stop grabbers. So, retracement probably will happen, but has it started already or we will see last leg down first? It is difficult to say something definite. Anyway, first level to watch as significant resistance si 1.2970-1.2980 K-resistance and WPP. Since this is only 0.618 target has been hit on daily, we do not want to see too extended retracement up. Prefferably, if it will finish right around 1.2980 area.
    On hourly chart I do not see much to add, only may be divergence is clear looking there.
    [​IMG]
    Conclusion:
    In longer term price action does not look bullish. We’ll see, but I suppose that market could start downward continuation.
    In short term perspective market stands at support, so, some bounce could follow in the beginning of the week. But it should be too deep up. If it will be the case, then probably we will have to take some pause, because that will be not in a row with overall picture and will tell us that reality is different from our view.

    The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
     
  2. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Daily Update, Tue 30, October 2012

    Good morning,
    Price action was relatively quiet. Today it could be as well, due hurricane on Eastern US shores, so market could be thin today.

    On daily TF price stands slighlty lower than 0.618 target and, in fact, there is just one barrier ahead - WPS1. If market will pass it, then road to 1.2750 will be opened.

    Yesterday's price action makes me think that price still gravitates to uncompleted targets. Price has tried to start pullback but failed right at initial point and returned back again and again. So, retracement still could happen, but probably from lower levels, as it shown on hourly chart.

    Here we clearly can see that market is struggling with support trend line. Right below it stands:
    1.618 of our AB-CD pattern,
    1.0 of most recent AB=CD pattern (that is a part of former one)
    Potential 1.27 target of Butterfly "Buy"

    All these levels stand close to WPS1 (that is also a MPP on current week). So, 20 pips area right below the market will be solid support, and if retracement will start, it should probably start somewhere from this level.
    If market will pass below WPS1, then the road to 1.2750 will be opened.
     

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    #2 Sive Morten, Oct 28, 2012
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  3. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Daily Update, Wed 31, October 2012

    Good morning,
    on daily time frame market has formed engulfing pattern right on trend line. It's definitely not the time to speak about long entry, but this pattern makes short entry a bit more complicated as well.
    Engulfing pattern has two major points - it's low as failure point and the min target - length of the bars. Hence, we should keep an eye on two levels if we want enter short. First is - taking out of its low, second - potential level of its completement.
    No problems with the former, I suppose. Let's take a look at latter.

    On 4-hour chart trend turns bullish, market now stands at first destination point - K-resistance+WPP. Altough we've talked about this level as potential one for short entry - look how market has reached it - by single jump, that is daily engulfing.

    On hourly chart we can see, what market could form is engulfing pattern will push price higher. Usually it develops in some sort of AB=CD pattern. It has target right at 5/8 resistance level, i.e. that will be an Agreement. So 1.3030-1.3040 area is next area to watch for potential bear "sell" patterns.
    If market will move higher - this will put bears' domination under question.

    IF you would like to make long trade - that's fine, but I can agree only on scalp one. Keep an eye on 1.2930-1.2935 - 50% retracement on most recent swing up as potential support. IT's very probable that if engulfing will start to work, it probably will happen right from this level. But this is only scalp trade - on potential retracement extension, not to marry this position.
     

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    #3 Sive Morten, Oct 28, 2012
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  4. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 01, November 2012

    Good morning,
    In general market has shown the price action as we've expected, but not quite. On daily time frame it looks like minimum target of engulfing pattern has been achieved, but intraday charts do not confirm it.
    So, our task for today is to get a clue - will market still proceed higher to 1.3040 or retracement is over. 4H and 1H charts will help us much with this.

    On 4-hour chart trend holds bullish, market is in progress with 3/8 retracement after hitting of minor 0.618 extension and Agreement of our upward AB-CD that is daily engulfing pattern. I do not object with minor retracement after minor target hitting. That's OK. What I do object against is deep retracement after minor target. On 4-hour chart we see that price stands very close to MACD Predictor. That could give us a stop grabber. And if it will be the case - welcome to 1.3040, since previous highs should be taken out.
    Conversely we should get trend shift to bearish and deeper move down, that probably will point and end to current retracement and will lead us at minimum back to daily trend support line.

    On hourly chart we see opposite picture - 3 side-by-side bearish stop grabbers are forming. Hence, market will make attempt to take out lows around 1.2950 or may be even 1.2940. If this will be just stop grabbing - that will give us opposite pattern on 4 hour chart. I hope you've got an idea...

    That's being said - keep an eye on 4-hour chart. If it will be stop grabber, we can try to enter long with 1.3030-1.3040 target. If it will be trend shifting to bearish side, then tomorrow, probably we will start to search possibility for short entry.
     

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    #4 Sive Morten, Oct 28, 2012
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  5. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Daily Update, Fri 02, November 2012

    Good morning,
    well, some tough times ahead, guys. US Debt ceil in December, elections in November and Fed license expiration on US Dollar printing. May be this is formality, but some mistery with this rumor exists.

    On daily time frame situation develops as we've discussed yesterday. Trend holds bearish, market gradually approaches to daily support line. If breakout will follow, then nearest target is 1.2750 area and K-support, but I think that in medium term perspective we could see much stronger move down. I still think that bears' chances are more prefferable on weekly time frame.

    On 4-hour chart trend has turned bearish, we have significant downward action and AB=CD pattern. The target of this pattern is important, since it will allow finally achieve 1.618 target of initial downward AB-CD (we traded it on previous week) and will challenge support trend line on daily. But, be aware of W&R here, since AB=CD target stands very close and just slightly below trend line. Market should not return back above 1.2880 lows to give us at least some confidence that this will be fair breakout.

    Hourly chart bearish as well, we see nice downward momentum. I haven't even drawn here levels, since move is fast and levels change with each few seconds.

    That's being said, I expect that market will challenge daily support today, but I'm not sure that it will hold, we'll see... In fact, this is last barrier ahead of 1.2750 area.

    Now about rumors....

    Mistery stands with Fed Reserve charter expiration on 21 (or 22) of December 2012, right at the day of Maya End Date. Personally, I do not believe in such sort of stuff since I belong to Russian Orthodox Church. But may be, for somebody of you it will be intersting.

    Now to reallity...
    Intermediate election results tells, that it could be equal votes between Obama and Romney. That could lead to additional voting in Congress and Senate and could lead to Romney's president and Baden vice-president. That will be real explosive stuff.
    Now just imagine what will be with US Debt Ceil discussion at the end of December, what the battle it will be...
    Nobody could predict now possible consequences.
     

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    #5 Sive Morten, Oct 28, 2012
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  6. Lolly Tripathy

    Lolly Tripathy Master Sergeant

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    Thank you so much sive sir
    wishing you a great week ahead
    Have green pips....

    sir showing a h&s pattern its not a perfect one..
    but still looking good
    HnS 4hr.


    Wishing you all a Great profitable week ahead
     
  7. FreddyFX

    FreddyFX Sergeant

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    Guess we won't see the 1.16 level this year.
     
  8. BeeKay8

    BeeKay8 Sergeant

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    Hey Sive,

    Hope you had a great weekend.

    Quick question. The 61.8 expansion target that has been hit on the daily TF... is that the first target of the gartley "222" sell or is the 100% expansion the first target of this pattern?

    Cheers!
     
  9. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Hi Brandon,
    any harmonic pattern is treated as worked properly, if it has hit at least 3/8 level. So, "222" 0.618 extension is not even a nearest target. The same is for butterfly. If retracement to 3/8 has happened - butterfly done nice. That's the minimum target, of cause.
     
  10. BeeKay8

    BeeKay8 Sergeant

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    Thanks, Sive. Appreciate it.
     

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