Triantus Shango
Sergeant Major
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FOREX PRO WEEKLY September 02-06, 2013
- Thread starter Sive Morten
- Start date
Triantus, will do my best and try to explain with picture...
I believe in my 4H count and I expect one more push down into 5th wave of ending diagonal, and it might already have started from 1,31857; can be wrong but then 8H TF is no good; with move above 1,31871 HH candle on 8H was made and with this I think the up move is announced, but after the pattern will be complited and I think on 8H 1,31857 should not not neccessary become a fractal..
Craig spoke about direction predicting wicks/fractals and just take a look on marked wicks/fractals...
ATM I am out of trades, thrown out on BE and took today so far only 7 pips, but will try to enter short down to 1,3120 and there somewhere will be looking for long.
Here is the picture..
Good trading!
ps: sorry for late response but was out and I needed more than 30 minutes for these few sentences
I believe in my 4H count and I expect one more push down into 5th wave of ending diagonal, and it might already have started from 1,31857; can be wrong but then 8H TF is no good; with move above 1,31871 HH candle on 8H was made and with this I think the up move is announced, but after the pattern will be complited and I think on 8H 1,31857 should not not neccessary become a fractal..
Craig spoke about direction predicting wicks/fractals and just take a look on marked wicks/fractals...
ATM I am out of trades, thrown out on BE and took today so far only 7 pips, but will try to enter short down to 1,3120 and there somewhere will be looking for long.
Here is the picture..
Good trading!
ps: sorry for late response but was out and I needed more than 30 minutes for these few sentences
Triantus Shango
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ok, thanks minimax.
are you using elliot wave analysis? if you are, then i won't understand a thing. never studied it, and never will because personally i believe that pesavento/dinapoli et al. who mostly use fibs and fib structures such as AB=CD, Gartley and Gartley derived structures, summarize quite effectively the market and are sufficient to captures good moves in a short TF. beyond that, i am sceptical. or perhaps i don't have enough imagination to see how it is possible beyond just a 50-50% success ratio. or perhaps i have been scalping M1/M3...M30 for too long now that i do not comprehend what can happen beyond 30 mins!
anyway, as to what you refer to as 'fractals', do you mean, bill williams's fractal tool, which by the way has got nothing to do with fractals at all from a mathematical POV (never understood why he called it 'fractal').
and regarding wicks as predicting direction, do you mean that those wicks on your chart are stop grabbers and when they occur at a significant S/R level, then the probability of the market going the opposite direction is greater than the probability of a continuation of the 'trend' prior to the wick(s) appearing?
hope you didn't got short on the e/u because as you can see...
are you using elliot wave analysis? if you are, then i won't understand a thing. never studied it, and never will because personally i believe that pesavento/dinapoli et al. who mostly use fibs and fib structures such as AB=CD, Gartley and Gartley derived structures, summarize quite effectively the market and are sufficient to captures good moves in a short TF. beyond that, i am sceptical. or perhaps i don't have enough imagination to see how it is possible beyond just a 50-50% success ratio. or perhaps i have been scalping M1/M3...M30 for too long now that i do not comprehend what can happen beyond 30 mins!
anyway, as to what you refer to as 'fractals', do you mean, bill williams's fractal tool, which by the way has got nothing to do with fractals at all from a mathematical POV (never understood why he called it 'fractal').
and regarding wicks as predicting direction, do you mean that those wicks on your chart are stop grabbers and when they occur at a significant S/R level, then the probability of the market going the opposite direction is greater than the probability of a continuation of the 'trend' prior to the wick(s) appearing?
hope you didn't got short on the e/u because as you can see...
Triantus, here I am:
- yes, I am trying to do analysis based on Elliott; I am practicing also Pesavento & Carney;
- yes, Bill Williams fractals
- about wicks: lots of times stand alone fractal (no fractal opposite) appears and high/low is level for break; on the other hand also stand alone fractal in opposite direction of move appears and later move in its direction developes
- sorry, I am short but because 20 is so close and on 1H 5 wave structure could develop dont believe trade will last long
In the picture we can see stand alone low fractals on 4 and 2H and I think euro will go down and make new low fractal BUT I am no more sure we will establish new LL, at least not before hiting 1,32971; will take photo from time to time and publish...
- yes, I am trying to do analysis based on Elliott; I am practicing also Pesavento & Carney;
- yes, Bill Williams fractals
- about wicks: lots of times stand alone fractal (no fractal opposite) appears and high/low is level for break; on the other hand also stand alone fractal in opposite direction of move appears and later move in its direction developes
- sorry, I am short but because 20 is so close and on 1H 5 wave structure could develop dont believe trade will last long
In the picture we can see stand alone low fractals on 4 and 2H and I think euro will go down and make new low fractal BUT I am no more sure we will establish new LL, at least not before hiting 1,32971; will take photo from time to time and publish...
Triantus Shango
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mmhhh... i think i am confused... 20 as in 3120? now we are at 3210, that's about 90 pips from 3120. ok, even from 3180, it's still 60 pips from 3120. so how can you say that's so close? 60 or 90 pips is not so close IMO, especially considering how slowly e/u moves. of course, on a daily and above TF, it's not far.
also, what i don't understand is this: if all the signs are there indicating that it's gonna go up first, as sive explained it (and i say this because my system being different from sive also shows the same), why would you want to short? i don't get it.
also, what do you mean by 'standalone fractal'? as far as i understand, williams's fractal indicator is just a visual aid highlighting highs and lows, which can easily be seen by the naked eye if you display the wicks. all you need to do is look at the chart and one can see where the highs/lows and HHs/LLs are. so i never understood the use of that fractal indicator, which by the way williams recommend to use together with his alligator indicator which just another very simplistic set up, i.e. 3 displaced SMAs.
quite frankly, i tried it williams's approach (both alligator and fractal) and it seemed pretty useless on short TFs and forex (maybe it works better with equities and daily and longer TFs). could you explain why do you see any value in using it? perhaps i am missing something here.
finally, if i understand you correctly, your analysis seems to point to the exact opposite direction of sive's analysis. how do you handle this contradiction? what i mean to say is that if you are absolutely convinced that you analysis is more correct, that is, market will reach 3120 before 3260/80, how do systematically argue the correctness of your assessment and therefore the incorrectness of sive's assessment? i mean, the dinapoli based analysis seems pretty rock solid to me in this regard and i personally would find it rather difficult to argue against, at least as far as today's analysis concerned. i mean, that is something i would be wondering about if i were in your shoes. i say this because to me it is far from obvious that this business of 'fractal' standalone or not is sufficient to call 3120 before 3260/80... perhaps some weird elliott voodoo is involved here that makes it more correct?
just thinking out loud... cheers
also, what i don't understand is this: if all the signs are there indicating that it's gonna go up first, as sive explained it (and i say this because my system being different from sive also shows the same), why would you want to short? i don't get it.
also, what do you mean by 'standalone fractal'? as far as i understand, williams's fractal indicator is just a visual aid highlighting highs and lows, which can easily be seen by the naked eye if you display the wicks. all you need to do is look at the chart and one can see where the highs/lows and HHs/LLs are. so i never understood the use of that fractal indicator, which by the way williams recommend to use together with his alligator indicator which just another very simplistic set up, i.e. 3 displaced SMAs.
quite frankly, i tried it williams's approach (both alligator and fractal) and it seemed pretty useless on short TFs and forex (maybe it works better with equities and daily and longer TFs). could you explain why do you see any value in using it? perhaps i am missing something here.
finally, if i understand you correctly, your analysis seems to point to the exact opposite direction of sive's analysis. how do you handle this contradiction? what i mean to say is that if you are absolutely convinced that you analysis is more correct, that is, market will reach 3120 before 3260/80, how do systematically argue the correctness of your assessment and therefore the incorrectness of sive's assessment? i mean, the dinapoli based analysis seems pretty rock solid to me in this regard and i personally would find it rather difficult to argue against, at least as far as today's analysis concerned.
i mean, that is something i would be wondering about if i were in your shoes. i say this because to me it is far from obvious that this business of 'fractal' standalone or not is sufficient to call 3120 before 3260/80... perhaps some weird elliott voodoo is involved here that makes it more correct?just thinking out loud... cheers
huh, Triantus, I will certainly improve my English if nothing else
- the closest 20 was 1,3220 where at 1,3221 161,8 expansion ab to c (or ABC to D) on 2H is but I am atm no more interested in; I think THIS is very visual in the picture I sent
- stand alone, well, fractal usualy has contra/opposite fractal (HH & HL for example) but often there is no contra fractal; this happens on higher time frame meanwhile on lower TF contra fractal is visual and these fractals are also objects of break out sometimes just for W&R or few pips and sometimes really good break, especially if move is in start; if & how strong break could be MAs can help to estimate
- fractal indicator I use to easier & faster determine common fractals on different TFs and to determine inner wave on lower TF of the the wave on higher TF
This is all voodoo I use...
- the closest 20 was 1,3220 where at 1,3221 161,8 expansion ab to c (or ABC to D) on 2H is but I am atm no more interested in; I think THIS is very visual in the picture I sent
- stand alone, well, fractal usualy has contra/opposite fractal (HH & HL for example) but often there is no contra fractal; this happens on higher time frame meanwhile on lower TF contra fractal is visual and these fractals are also objects of break out sometimes just for W&R or few pips and sometimes really good break, especially if move is in start; if & how strong break could be MAs can help to estimate
- fractal indicator I use to easier & faster determine common fractals on different TFs and to determine inner wave on lower TF of the the wave on higher TF
This is all voodoo I use...
Triantus Shango
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ok thanks, i understand the reference to 20 now. but my problem is that i find your charts so busy with so many graphical elements, it's hard for me to see what is and what is not important. i imported your screenshot in a paint program and added 2 black circles on H1.
my question regarding these 2 circles is: the fractal inside the circles, is this what you mean by 'contra fractals'?
also, what i do not understand is that there are some many little triangle pictures to identify fractals, and you have the wicks, and for ex the long ones on H8 and H4 don't give you a move in the opposite direction... ahh wait... are you saying that when you see them appear on H8/H4, you look at scalping a move in the opposite direction on H2/H1? but if so, it takes at least 3 candles before a new fractal is displayed, no? so that's too much lag time.
not sure i get it.
my question regarding these 2 circles is: the fractal inside the circles, is this what you mean by 'contra fractals'?
also, what i do not understand is that there are some many little triangle pictures to identify fractals, and you have the wicks, and for ex the long ones on H8 and H4 don't give you a move in the opposite direction... ahh wait... are you saying that when you see them appear on H8/H4, you look at scalping a move in the opposite direction on H2/H1? but if so, it takes at least 3 candles before a new fractal is displayed, no? so that's too much lag time.
not sure i get it.
huh, Triantus, I will certainly improve my English if nothing else
- the closest 20 was 1,3220 where at 1,3221 161,8 expansion ab to c (or ABC to D) on 2H is but I am atm no more interested in; I think THIS is very visual in the picture I sent
- stand alone, well, fractal usualy has contra/opposite fractal (HH & HL for example) but often there is no contra fractal; this happens on higher time frame meanwhile on lower TF contra fractal is visual and these fractals are also objects of break out sometimes just for W&R or few pips and sometimes really good break, especially if move is in start; if & how strong break could be MAs can help to estimate
- fractal indicator I use to easier & faster determine common fractals on different TFs and to determine inner wave on lower TF of the the wave on higher TF
This is all voodoo I use...
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Triantus,
yes, those are fractal & contra fractal BUT unfortanetely you chose the pair on 1H TF which did not acomplish its task - as waves 1 and 2 with one more pair 3 & 4 establish HH with wave 5 as I wrote and expected; waves a and c in ZigZag pattern are motive waves and as such or really fast and looks like one move or you can find 5 waves where waves usually are not covering - overlaping, exception are both diagonals; these waves can be found on same TF, usually mostly one leg of the structure can be seen, but more often on lower TFs (ore one or even 3 or 4 lower (example: 8H is one move but on 30M there is seen impulse)) and thats why I trade opposite direction when I have clear picture that higher TF structure is perfect structure on lower TF; perfect means also with fibo proportions; one of the rules is when you are in doubt about the structure on one TF, check higher one(s) to make decision;
atm, 09.30 CET, stand alone fractal on H2 is already taken and I expect also the one on H4 to be taken soon; maybe stand alone low fractal on 1H will form, 30 minutes time left, and this fractal would be object of break; if break will be strong and fast we can go very low against 1,31373, curent LL and even below, although I dont expect new LL, but will stay in trade as long as possible...
yes, those are fractal & contra fractal BUT unfortanetely you chose the pair on 1H TF which did not acomplish its task - as waves 1 and 2 with one more pair 3 & 4 establish HH with wave 5 as I wrote and expected; waves a and c in ZigZag pattern are motive waves and as such or really fast and looks like one move or you can find 5 waves where waves usually are not covering - overlaping, exception are both diagonals; these waves can be found on same TF, usually mostly one leg of the structure can be seen, but more often on lower TFs (ore one or even 3 or 4 lower (example: 8H is one move but on 30M there is seen impulse)) and thats why I trade opposite direction when I have clear picture that higher TF structure is perfect structure on lower TF; perfect means also with fibo proportions; one of the rules is when you are in doubt about the structure on one TF, check higher one(s) to make decision;
atm, 09.30 CET, stand alone fractal on H2 is already taken and I expect also the one on H4 to be taken soon; maybe stand alone low fractal on 1H will form, 30 minutes time left, and this fractal would be object of break; if break will be strong and fast we can go very low against 1,31373, curent LL and even below, although I dont expect new LL, but will stay in trade as long as possible...
Triantus Shango
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ok i see. i need to understand elliott wave theory to make sense of all this. it is complex. and while i wait for my eur/aud and aud/jpy trades to reach TP, i will try something different. you inspired me with all this 'voodoo'. ;D
i'm gonna put up naked chart of XAUUSD, with H8/H4/H2/H1/M30/M15/M5, overlay the fractal indicator and have only one study on, williams's awesome oscillator (AO on tradingview.com) and will try to intuit the price action!
let's what comes out this... a pure mess or more shiny!!
and while i wait for my eur/aud and aud/jpy trades to reach TP, i will try something different. you inspired me with all this 'voodoo'. ;D i'm gonna put up naked chart of XAUUSD, with H8/H4/H2/H1/M30/M15/M5, overlay the fractal indicator and have only one study on, williams's awesome oscillator (AO on tradingview.com) and will try to intuit the price action!
let's what comes out this... a pure mess or more shiny!!
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