FOREX PRO Weekly September 05-09, 2011

Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
Messages
1,372
Hello Sive!
I am sure you are taking into consideration the Weekly ascending trend line. I just want to notice that market just touched it and turned upwards. I cannot post a chart, sorry.
i posted the chart a couple hours ago. but trend lines are meant to be broken, are they not? ;-)
 

Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
Messages
1,372
alternative vehicle--and am not talking about electric cars!

guys

i keep reading about how the NOK is/might/will become the next safe haven currency. what do you think sive?

i started to keep an eye on EURNOK and USDNOK. the spread is ridiculous but the volatility is sweet! look at how much these pairs jump around in a couple of hours. :D
 

Damian1987

Corporal
Messages
149
[...] if it will break it, then we can expect deeper retracement, may be even AB-CD to 1.42 area. [...]
Good morning Sive!!! I was wondering if you wanted to say "may be even AB-CD to 1.43 area" because when we talk about breaking confluence resistance between 4160 and 4190 and having a deeper retracement...1,42 doesn't seem that deep. Allright, thanks for everything once again, let's all have a nice day.

Cheers !!!!!
 

pragmatic

Corporal
Messages
109
usdchf

Hello again!
I am wondering, after yesterday intervention on CHF, should I look for a way to enter short on USDCHF? The pair is at weekly Overbought.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
13,013
EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 08, September 2011

Good morning,
market still shows some apward retracement. Today will be Obama speech about possible Job creating programm, that costs around 300 B and assumes unemployment reducing to 7.5% during 2-3 years.
I wonder, do they count this programm in budget deficit cut? If not, then this is quite curious - reduce deficit for 2 Bln per year and pay for programm 300 B...

So, on daily time frame yesterday's trading session was inside one, market is not at oversold anymore, so we can get two different scenarios:
1. Market will stuck in 1.3970-1.41 and then accelerates down;
2. Market will show retracement to 1.4185 and then goes down.

On 4 hour chart we see solid bull trend, AB-CD target at 1.4185 - right in Agreement with confluence resistance area 1.4163-1.4192.

On hourly chart Butterfly "Sell" target stands at 1.4187 - at the same level. So 1.4180 is my prefferable area to watch for entering Short purpose.

Another hidden bullish sign is a potential hidden Bullish divergence with MACD - MACD shows new low while price is not. But this signal has not been confirmed yes, since trend has not turned bullish yet. But it's better to watch it.

One thing that I do not like here is that market has not reached 0.618 target of AB-CD pattern and turns to retracement. This is very uncommon, mostly because 0.618 if nearest target and even when market is weak - it usually reaches it.
So, how we will act? First keep an eye on 1.4107 high - if market will break it, then probably we will see 1.4185.
Another level is 1.4010 - if market will take that low - probably it will continue move down and retracement will be over.
 

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fxmig

Private
Messages
24
Huge Slippage Consequences

Sive,

I understand that you have several years of experience in the markets. Has an experience of really bad slippage ever affected you? For example, the type of movement that occurred on Tuesday, if someone had had a short position in the EUR/USD and a stop loss of say 20 - 30 pips, I really doubt the Loss would have been limited to 20 pips since the move up was at least 130 pips in a very short time. I was not in a position Tuesday, but i ask you this because I have heard of this happen to people and I get very nervous investing when I see this happen. I look at this activity and truly believe that it could have probably wiped out 2 weeks, 4 weeks, or even 3 months worth of profits! I also believe that times like these are not normal and there is a lot of nervousness among investors in the current market environment. Please give me your opinion.

Thanks Mike
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
13,013
Sive,

I understand that you have several years of experience in the markets. Has an experience of really bad slippage ever affected you? For example, the type of movement that occurred on Tuesday, if someone had had a short position in the EUR/USD and a stop loss of say 20 - 30 pips, I really doubt the Loss would have been limited to 20 pips since the move up was at least 130 pips in a very short time. I was not in a position Tuesday, but i ask you this because I have heard of this happen to people and I get very nervous investing when I see this happen. I look at this activity and truly believe that it could have probably wiped out 2 weeks, 4 weeks, or even 3 months worth of profits! I also believe that times like these are not normal and there is a lot of nervousness among investors in the current market environment. Please give me your opinion.

Thanks Mike
Hi Mike,
That's really could happen, but mostly for large values or when market-makers shows quotes manually during, say, macro data release.

Spot forex has additional risks with it (read in FPA Forex Military School comparison futures with forex market).

there is no 100% protection against slippage. There are 3 possible ways:
1. Shift to futures trading - at least you will be able to see all market, trading volumes and each tick will be booked in Exchange database and your broker will not deceive you
2. Use options instead of spot positions - you stop loss is option premium.
3. Find the broker, who gives 100% waranty of slippage portection. Currenty there are some. Unfortunately I do not know how they are in other aspects of trading, but I've seen some advertisement about not slippage etc...
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
13,013
EUR/USD Daily Update, Fri 09, September 2011

Good morning,
market step by step is approaching to 1.3811 low - our minimum target of that move.
What can I say currently, when target is almost hit? Hold shorts, but think about tighting stops. We see, that market is not at oversold, but just below the market 1.3650-1.3760 strong monthly confluence support and I suspect, that market will respect it by retracement. This downmove should stop, at least temporary, somewhere inside that area.

If you still have no short position - search possibility to enter short for last gasping "easy" bearish move down. All trends are bearish, market not at oversold - you may use nearest Fib resistance on houly time frame to try to enter short. I'm talking about 1.3950 level. Also this is ex-0.786 support and previous lows. Stop could be placed above 1.4005 area - next Fib resistance. Market should not show deep retracements currenty.
 

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