FOREX PRO Weekly September 05-09, 2011

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,867
same with me. . Although the double top was evident loss of opportunity is better than loss of capital as Master Dinapoli says. When in doubt stay out and for sure I was in doubt.
You know, guys, such events as today don't stop to surprise me.
How could I know about SNB and all this stuff. But take a look - our trading plan has worked! Market has hit 1.42 and really continue move down. THis is stunning...
Of cause I also very often stay aside, even when I have detailed trading plan. If somehow you have not entered yet and just want to do it, then you get something like today's SNB action - you decide to sit on your hand, since it's a bit scared and it seems that there is too much risk...
But technical analysis very often could predict some fundamental events. That is what surprise me again and again, especially if we will think about it from a bit longer-term view. For instance from weekly chart. We have clear short signal (stop grabber) during week end already! Is it not amazing?
 

Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
Messages
1,372
no kidding! was long before the rocket took off. then i didn't know what to think. thought we would pass saturn and so instead of jettisoning stayed long already planning on crash landing around 4320. could not believe in a sharp V shape reversal after such a strong thrust up... so i held... and held some more... til i started regretting it. still can't believe we are back down at 3979. why did i ignore the signs???!!!!! like you said, the double top was staring me right in the face and i didn't want to believe it. trade what you see, trade what you see... the goddam book was even on the table next to the PC! how is that for irony? damn.
 

Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
Messages
1,372
i'm sorry icarus, where is that H&S? i don't see it on the daily. do you have a chart you could share?

here is a prediction in light of today's event: on daily, p will hit the 1.272 extension from the last sell gartley 222 at around 3920-3930... and bounce back towards fib 78.6 from the same retrace structure. also the SMA(23) is around the same level on the monthly and will act as support. that will be the beginning of the fulfillment of the bullish flag/descending triangle on the monthly and bullish trend will resume.
 

Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
Messages
1,372
sive... guys... i just found this weekly chart at forexlive.com.

EUR/USD Weekly Chart at Support | ForexLive

i thought this is interesting. the financial reporter/analyst (?) who posted it says that selling now would be going against the trend as if the trend line could not be broken. he implies a bounce from the trend line. sometimes i can't understand what makes those guys so sure... there isn't even a shred of harmonic analysis anywhere in sight!

i should get a job like that. i can talk about charts all the day long without even knowing what i am talking about! LOL
 

rashidin5178

Sergeant
Messages
244
Bear Win Again and Again!

Hi guys,

What a crazy market today! What does it mean? For me, obviously bear is too big to fail right now.:mad:

Thanks and Best Regards
 

Icarus

Private, 1st Class
Messages
81
You know, guys, such events as today don't stop to surprise me.
How could I know about SNB and all this stuff. But take a look - our trading plan has worked! Market has hit 1.42 and really continue move down. THis is stunning...
Of cause I also very often stay aside, even when I have detailed trading plan. If somehow you have not entered yet and just want to do it, then you get something like today's SNB action - you decide to sit on your hand, since it's a bit scared and it seems that there is too much risk...
But technical analysis very often could predict some fundamental events. That is what surprise me again and again, especially if we will think about it from a bit longer-term view. For instance from weekly chart. We have clear short signal (stop grabber) during week end already! Is it not amazing?
I have noticed this type of thing before and it has always amazed me as well. I was going to ask you about it a few times but wasn't sure how to word my question! Thank you for this posting this. I am happy to know I am not the only one frequently amazed by this phenomenon. I noticed yesterday that USDCHF had a RRT on daily time frames which also is interesting.
 
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fxmig

Private
Messages
24
Im going to marry a Central Bankers Daugher FoR sure!!!!

Sive,

Seriously, with central banks intervening in the markets like are right now, HOW CAN ONE KNOW WHATS GOING TO HAPPEN NEXT.

I am going to get really buff and sexy and I am going to marry the daughter of Bernanke!! I'm young so I think this is a possibility!

No matter what fundamental or technical analysis you have, with Central and World Bank interventions, we obviously have a Currency War going on and until we have some sort of stability, we can expect to trade and get slaughtered at any moment.

Mike Esparza

Thats my name in case you all want to have someone to network with when I marry the Federal Reserves daughter or maybe even the daughter of the head of the ECB.

PEACE!:confused:
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,867
EUR/USD Daily Update, Wed 07, September 2011

Good morning,
I suspect today will be semi-vacation day, since market just turned in retracement.

On daily time frame market has hit 0.786 Fib support at daily oversold, so this is not the time to enter short right now, we need some pullback. The major question is - how deep it could be.

on 4-hour chart we see 1.4089 nearest Fib resistance and 1.4160-1.4190 is Confluence resistance. trend is turning bullish. If market will hit 1.4089 but fail to break it and start to coil between 1.4089 and low 1.3970, then probably it indends just correct oversold condition and continue move down.

if it will break it, then we can expect deeper retracement, may be even AB-CD to 1.42 area.

Since today move up just has started, we need some time to get some clues how it will turn
 

Attachments

pragmatic

Corporal
Messages
109
Hello Sive!
I am sure you are taking into consideration the Weekly ascending trend line. I just want to notice that market just touched it and turned upwards. I cannot post a chart, sorry.
 
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