FOREX PRO Weekly September 19-23, 2011

[kneepad]

Thank you

Dear Sive

Just had to say how much I appreciate the time
you give up to help us. I have learned so much
from your analysis. So clear and concise.

Your Military School is a masterpiece, and for free.

Thank You,

Best Regards

Kneepad

 

[nicolebobbin]

Thank you Sive, the gap is still there and look like market is attempt to fill it.
For your preference, this is Elliott Wave Analysis for EURUSD and AUDUSD, the reason I mention AUDUSD is because it is highly positive correlation with EURUSD so basically if AUDUSD price action gives some hint about future movement, it's worth the considering to trade EU

 

[Sive Morten]

Thank you Sive, the gap is still there and look like market is attempt to fill it.
For your preference, this is Elliott Wave Analysis for EURUSD and AUDUSD, the reason I mention AUDUSD is because it is highly positive correlation with EURUSD so basically if AUDUSD price action gives some hint about future movement, it's worth the considering to trade EU

Hi Nicole,
I'm not a big fan of EW, still I also do not exclude the possibility of deeper retracement. But for that purpose we need FOMC statement....

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Wed 21, September 2011

Hello everybody,

well you see total picture by yourself, I suppose - nothing is happening right now. Yesterday market has tried to fill the gap, but couldn't do that just for 2 pips.

Since the lower border of gap stands at 1.3740 (in futures quotes) and current market at 1.37, taking in consideration a bit nervous environment and the eve of FOMC statement, then it looks like better to stay flat till that moment.
When FOMC announcement wiill come to pass we will have sufficient time to enter the market, but I hope we will do that due some clear pattern.
Currently market is too choppy.

Still, it could try to fill the gap again, based on new AB-CD pattern. Althgouh we can't exclude that it could jumo right to 0.618 resistance around 1.38 area since some targets stand there - the odds are not very big, because in that case market will have to move above pivot. In current environment it will hardly happen.

Will you enter market with attempt to make money on gap closing - this choice is up to you, but personally I will be flat.

 

[yousuf]

hey sive

Hey sive hope your well.

do you think market will spike down, take out the lows of the market and the stops and then accelerate up, because i remember you saying to look for some sort of buy signals on the daily time frame??

secondly, on the other side, do u think market will accelerate up?

because our
A - 1.35080
B - 1.39357
C - 1.35854 ( Wash and rinse of 78.6 level of A/B )
D - ?? 1.41496 ( 100% expansion of A/B)

* All the above are spot rates *

Yousuf.

 

[pragmatic]

Thank you Sive, the gap is still there and look like market is attempt to fill it.
For your preference, this is Elliott Wave Analysis for EURUSD and AUDUSD, the reason I mention AUDUSD is because it is highly positive correlation with EURUSD so basically if AUDUSD price action gives some hint about future movement, it's worth the considering to trade EU


Hi Nicole!
The way I see it is that AUD is following EUR not the other way around, don't you think? In fact, I think all major pairs as well as crosses are following EURUSD in some extent.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hey sive hope your well.

do you think market will spike down, take out the lows of the market and the stops and then accelerate up, because i remember you saying to look for some sort of buy signals on the daily time frame??

secondly, on the other side, do u think market will accelerate up?

because our
A - 1.35080
B - 1.39357
C - 1.35854 ( Wash and rinse of 78.6 level of A/B )
D - ?? 1.41496 ( 100% expansion of A/B)

* All the above are spot rates *

Yousuf.

Hi Yousuf,
you push me in some gambling...
In general, market has a bearish bias, and I suppose that downmove will continue sooner or later. But currently it stands at significant support, so I do not exclude probability of deeper upward retracement.
I prefer not to gamble but look at clear patterns. Now I do not see them, until I will not see them I will not open any position.

 

[gudule95]

Pennant Chart Pattern

 

[yousuf]

hey sive.

Hi Yousuf,
you push me in some gambling...
In general, market has a bearish bias, and I suppose that downmove will continue sooner or later. But currently it stands at significant support, so I do not exclude probability of deeper upward retracement.
I prefer not to gamble but look at clear patterns. Now I do not see them, until I will not see them I will not open any position./QUOTE]

hey sive, thanks for your reply,
lol, i wasn't really pushing you into gambling just sharing my view, but then again if you wont open the position then i wont either.

The other reason for my bullish stance on the market is

http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/commitmentsoftraders/index Commitment of Traders - CFTC

The COT report from the CME for euro futures, there is a deviation and more and more contracts are being bought for euro long.

What do you think?

Yousuf.

 

[yousuf]

hey sive.

one more quick thing, would you recommend buying a straddle before the FOMC STATEMENT, at 80% implied volatility? and around 15-20 option price, equalling around 40 for call and put?

Yousuf.