FOREX PRO Weekly September 26-30, 2011

We should learn again and again

I do agree with you Joshnix. I also have the same habit as a new trader before. Now I become more conservative on trade entry. Better just searching for better entry instead of poor trade and making loss. Actually it is very hard to accept our wrong entry and cutting loss. We should secure our profit also.

I think as a new trader, we always miss one basic procedure, search for entry signal after we got a direction.

I'd learnt a lot from my horrible entry. Forced to say goodbye to my real account and login to demo account once again. Lol.:)

It is easy for me to speak but I, myself also have a difficulty to do it. Just learn from our mistakes, again and again. At least we try not to make it a habit.;)

Thanks and Best Regards.
 
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As long as the lesson is learned take the loss. Do not let small losses become big losses. No one on here can tell you how to trade, so the question whether you should take the loss or not no one can help you.
 
Nicole,
Any reason you did not wait for a retrace after piercing the 3414 level? Or set a stop loss according to your trading style? Just asking because I have done this same thing before, and I learned from my horrible entry. I could not refrain from this reply, because it seems you have to refine your trading style as you have similar posts each week. I may be able to help to point out that if there are two possible target areas to watch then do nothing but watch them. If you miss a trade so be it, but had you waited 2 hours to make that trade you would have seen the buy signal and waited for a retest of the high to see the sell signal. Currently you would be 50 pips richer. Even so the next day after you see the test of the levels and the chop in between you could a.) switch your timeframe to lower levels like 15m or 5m or b.) wait for a break out and get 150 pips in the process to the next target.

Hope this helps.

Well said Joshnix,
I have made similar mistake like Nicole, many times, mostly on Monday morning trading, and i paid dearly for it. It is wise to wait and enter as you said. I did make like 50pips with buy entry at same 3414, instead of sell, as it was a first breakout not and tight stop loss, infact the appearance of a hammer on the 1hour time frame adjudge my entry.

We all learn from our mistakes.

Good luck guys. and Long life to Mr Sive.
 
I entered 1.3414 because Sive said if market break it then it would continue to 1.3270 - 3240 . Actually it did down to 3662 but fail to reach target and reverse to up side. Yesterday market was crazy especial on gold and silver so I didn't want to miss that trade
 
EUR/USD Daily Update, Tue 27, September 2011

Good morning,

market again has proven us that it is wisest among all of us. While we've said that if market will take low at 1.3414 then it probably will accelelrate downward.
But that was not the case - it has shown nice W&R of previous lows on 4-hour time frame and Stop grabber and turned to the upside.

Since the first part of our trading plan has failed - then we have to turn to the second one.

The major risk for the bears currenty is a 1.27 Buttefly "buy" on 4-hour chart that still stands in semi-position. From the one point of view - market is moving higher and looks like Butterfly works. But from the other view - this move is very choppy and sloppy and does not look like medium term reversal. We miss appearance of some impulse long white candles...

That's why it very difficult to predict 2-days perspectives and all that we could do currently - is act by situation. And what situation we have?

If you trade particular this butterfly pattern - then it should be all clear for you, since there are fix rules of trading such patterns exist.

Speaking about trend trading:
1. Daily trend is bearish now, so our context to trade is down. Market not at oversold.
2. Hourly and 4-hour trends is bullish. It means that market should reach some deeper Fib resistance levels before we can turn to searching some sell signals.

The nearest area where we can do that is K-resistance at 1.3574-1.3625. Also we need that this choppy style holds. If market will show thrusting impulse up bars - this will be quite another story.

So, I think that we should wait for this area, drop our time frame and watch for sell patterns. If we will not see them - wait for futher price action, until we will not see any clear signals.

As we've said previously, we also can't exclude retracement to next Agreement to 1.3702-1.3708 area. But this is not the time yet to speak about it.
 

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Sive, I always appreciate your analysis. I am particularly interested in the Joe DiNapoli "oversold/overbought" indicator you use. What exactly is it? How does it work? Can it be purchased separately, or is it a part of a subscription package? If i can purchase it, I want to know exactly what I'm asking for, and if possible, where it can be found. Thank you. Howard

Hi Howard, you may download Detrended Oscillator from our Forex Military School forum and read how to use it. The point is DiNapoli Oscillator Predictor is derrivative one from Detrended Oscillator.
Speaking about Software, some of them is rather expensive that has DiNapoli trading Pack - CQG, Genesis, CIS Trading package.
BTW, Domian uses some kind of software that has that indicators. Ask him about it...

Hi Sive!!

I've been doing some research in order to find out wich currency pairs move different from EUR/USD in order to have more trade opportunities. Unfortunately most of the pairs I've seen (specially the majors) either they move the same way or as mirrors, in any case that's not helpfull. What would you recommend me to do if I want to have let's say more trade opportunities in order to find daily double repos, or daily BBs of different pairs??? maybe it's not possible in FX and I should look instead on different markets such as comodities or stocks??? please enlight me buddy!!

Hi Damian,
Well, two decisions - look for pairs that do not include USD. Second, you're right - watch for other assets. But be extra careful, especially with commodities. This is quite different market that has its own specific.
Also there is one indicator exists - DiNapoli Thrust scanner that could help you to find really thrusting markets or assets.

Hi Sive, when you come online I am really appreciate if you can comment on the exit strategy (cut or hold )as my trade has been triggered according to your plan. I know every trade should have stoploss but a quick tip from you helps a lot. Many thanks and Best regards !

Nicole,
Any reason you did not wait for a retrace after piercing the 3414 level? Or set a stop loss according to your trading style? Just asking because I have done this same thing before, and I learned from my horrible entry. I could not refrain from this reply, because it seems you have to refine your trading style as you have similar posts each week. I may be able to help to point out that if there are two possible target areas to watch then do nothing but watch them. If you miss a trade so be it, but had you waited 2 hours to make that trade you would have seen the buy signal and waited for a retest of the high to see the sell signal. Currently you would be 50 pips richer. Even so the next day after you see the test of the levels and the chop in between you could a.) switch your timeframe to lower levels like 15m or 5m or b.) wait for a break out and get 150 pips in the process to the next target.

Hope this helps.

I do agree with you Joshnix. I also have the same habit as a new trader before. Now I become more conservative on trade entry. Better just searching for better entry instead of poor trade and making loss. Actually it is very hard to accept our wrong entry and cutting loss. We should secure our profit also.

I think as a new trader, we always miss one basic procedure, search for entry signal after we got a direction.

I'd learnt a lot from my horrible entry. Forced to say goodbye to my real account and login to demo account once again. Lol.:)

It is easy for me to speak but I, myself also have a difficulty to do it. Just learn from our mistakes, again and again. At least we try not to make it a habit.;)

Thanks and Best Regards.

As long as the lesson is learned take the loss. Do not let small losses become big losses. No one on here can tell you how to trade, so the question whether you should take the loss or not no one can help you.

I entered 1.3414 because Sive said...

Wow, really solid discussion here, but guys, let me clarify something...

First - read my intro. Now I'm not a intraday trader - I'm head of risk management department. Feel the difference. I still deal with markets but mostly long-term. My work (besides risk management) is development of investment strategy based on economic cycles and valuation.

Second, when you've read all that stuff, you have to understand that I here as long as you like and need my comentaries. When you will say "Sive, your comments are garbage and we don't need them any more" - then I'll finish with that.

All that I do is give you my view on the market - anyone can do the same here. And I do it as long as this is useful for forumers.

So, make the trades just because
I entered 1.3414 because Sive said...

not very good idea. I've said million of times how to work with 3d part opinion - read it, understand it - agree totally, take some parts that you think usefull, or disagree. But act at your own opinion.

I'm not trying to shake off responsibility personally from me, since I have to care it and Nicole, I'm really sorry when somebody loose money from my "help". But, guys, that's your money and only you responsible for your own trades.

This is educational part of forum - not the daily signals. Here we study the algorithm of creating complete trading plan.
But how you will act if it will fail, where you will place stop and what the signs of its failng - that's your homework.
 
Sives Anaylis

Sive does not tell you to enter or trade,his free service to people who wish to become professional traders is a teaching service.

You and only YOU can identify which type of trader you are then as Sive says if you see something you can use it if not then dont,

As its very un professional to ask Sive for your personal trading plan exits ....

Thanks Sive for your invaluable teachings in our all pursuits of reaching the professional trader.

Asif
 
Thanks again

Hey

Thanks again sive for your work and time you spend in this group.

Kind regards Tony
 
hey sive.

hey sive, would you consider the following attached picture to be B&B sell on gbp/usd daily time frame?
 

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