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Forex Signal (Fri February 18 2011, 7:00am NY Time EST) - CA Core CPI m/m

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Feb 17, 2011.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    CPI is also known as Inflation and our focus will be on the Core Inflation figure, also known as CPI excluding Food and Energy, or CPI ex Volatile Items...

    Here's the forecast:

    CA Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous -0.3%
    ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.1% / SELL 0.4%

    The Trade Plan

    We will be focusing on the Core CPI release today and our deviation for this release based on historical track record is around 0.3%, therefore I’ll be looking for tradable figures of -0.1% or worse to BUY USD/CAD or a 0.4% or better to SELL USD/CAD.

    I'll be looking for a after-news retracement trade for this release. I'll wait for the release, wait for the initial market move, and wait for a decent retracement before jumping in. For more information on my trading methods:
    Henry's News Trading Method.

    The Market
    USDCAD has been remarkably resilient during the past few trading sessions and have stayed in a tight range. With recent economic data mostly pointing to the upside out of Canada, a strong inflation reading could prompt further speculation that BOC will hike rates sooner than later.

    However, if we do not get a strong release, recent speculations for CAD LONG will probably consolidate and possibly push USDCAD back above the 1.0000 in the week to come.

    Additional Thoughts
    USDCAD may stall until equity market open, therefore I'd recommend to use some patience when trading this pair during 7:00am hour. Also Core CPI rarely surprises much, so if we do not get our deviation, just stay out of the market until U.S. market opens.

    Pre-news Consideration
    There is no pre-news trading for this event.

    DEFINITION:
    “CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households(wikipedia).” It is also known as the “True Cost of Living”.

    Our focus is on the Core CPI, or CPI ex Energy and Food components, which provides a better picture of inflation without the seasonal factor.

    Historical Chart & Data of CA Core CPI


    Thanks,


    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Feb 17, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. residual4life

    residual4life Recruit

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    Forex Signal (February 18, 2011 7:00am EST) Canada Core CPI m/m pip movement.

    Hi, how many pips is this due to move? Thanks.
     
  3. ljcepek

    ljcepek Recruit

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    Sure that wasn't 8:00 EST? Just had a huge jump at 7:00 my time when I thought the news was past. Wipeout
     
  4. PipDog

    PipDog Corporal

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    What "Huge Jump"...?


    It was at 7:00 EST. I don't know what chart and pair you're looking at, but there is no "Huge Jump" in any CAD pair.
     

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