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Forex Signal (Mon April 25 2011, 10:00am NY Time EST) - US New Home Sales m/m

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Apr 24, 2011.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    U.S. New Home Sales usually follows the trend of Existing Home Sales, therefore we are likely to see a slightly stronger release today. Here is the forecast:

    10:00am NY Time New Home Sales Forecast 280K Previous 250K
    ACTION: SELL 350K EURUSD BUY 210K EURUSD

    The Trade Plan

    We’ll trade this release using a deviation of 70K; if the release is lower, it would strengthened risk aversion sentiment and we should look to BUY EURUSD; if the number is higher, it could provide a temporary support for the pair and we may see a slight rally in USD/JPY and we could SELL EURUSD if the market is showing bias towards selling Euro.

    We’ll be looking for a possible after-news retracement trade. As I have explained in previous analysis, we need to wait for the release, wait for the market to spike, and wait for decent retracement. This is the 3 “W”s of Retracement Trading system. It is especially important to make sure there is a momentum during the spike before jumping in.

    For more information on my trading methods, please read:
    Henry Liu's Trading Method

    The Market
    The U.S. housing market is still under considerable pressure due to the stagnant number of Mortgage Purchase Applications. March saw rising numbers in existing home sales and the same is expected for new home sales. This shouldn’t excite anyone as the housing market looks as bleak as ever.

    Expect a slight rebound but the overall market is still very weak. Despite a gradually growing economy, the housing market continues to be a weak spot in the country’s economic recovery.

    Pre-news Consideration
    There is no pre-news for this release.

    Definition:
    “Measures the annualized number of new residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency because the housing market is a leading gauge for the overall economy. A high level of housing activity signals that the construction industry is healthy and that consumers have the capital to make large investments. More importantly, new housing activity creates an economic ripple effect as home owners buy goods such as appliances and furniture for their homes, and builders buy raw materials and hire more workers to meet demand.”

    Historical Chart and Data for US New Home Sales m/m


    Thank you,


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    #1 Henry Liu, Apr 24, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016

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