Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 473
We’ll be getting the Core Retail Sales (and Retail Sales) figure out of U.S. today, as high impact news releases are concerned, Retail Sales makes up about 2/3 of U.S. GDP (economy)… Here’s the forecast:
8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.7% Previous 1.2%
ACTION: 1.2% SELL EURUSD / 0.1% BUY GBPUSD
The Trade Plan
The plan to trade this release is straight forward. We are going to wait for 1.2% of release or better to SELL EURUSD, or a 0.1% or worse to BUY GBPUSD… If we get a in-between release, we’ll need to look at the pre-release market condition in order to make a decision, or just stay out of the market altogether.
We will trade this news release using after news retracement method, I will pay attention to both headline and core Retail Sales figures, but my focus will be on the Core figure.
For more information on my trading method:
Henry's News Trading Methods.
The Market
The medium forecast surveyed by Bloomberg stated that the Core figure is at 0.7% of gain while the headline figure is expected to be around 0.6%.
With year end shopping spree showing better than expected preliminary sales data from Target Inc., Walmart, and Macy, there is definitely a chance for this release to be better than expected...
Additional Thoughts
Market is suffering from lower liquidity and it is likely that a surprise release may change the short-term trend of the market, if the surprise is huge enough...
Pre-news Consideration
There are no pre-news consideration for this release.
DEFINITION:
“(Retail Sales Core) Derivative of Retail Sales that excludes the Automobile Sales component. Automobile Sales make up roughly 25% of Retail Sales, but they can be very volatile from month to month and can distort the picture. Retail Sales with the exclusion of this volatile component is thought to be a better indicator of the underlying trend in consumer spending.”
Historical Data and Chart For US Core Retail Sales
Thanks,
8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.7% Previous 1.2%
ACTION: 1.2% SELL EURUSD / 0.1% BUY GBPUSD
The Trade Plan
The plan to trade this release is straight forward. We are going to wait for 1.2% of release or better to SELL EURUSD, or a 0.1% or worse to BUY GBPUSD… If we get a in-between release, we’ll need to look at the pre-release market condition in order to make a decision, or just stay out of the market altogether.
We will trade this news release using after news retracement method, I will pay attention to both headline and core Retail Sales figures, but my focus will be on the Core figure.
For more information on my trading method:
Henry's News Trading Methods.
The Market
The medium forecast surveyed by Bloomberg stated that the Core figure is at 0.7% of gain while the headline figure is expected to be around 0.6%.
With year end shopping spree showing better than expected preliminary sales data from Target Inc., Walmart, and Macy, there is definitely a chance for this release to be better than expected...
Additional Thoughts
Market is suffering from lower liquidity and it is likely that a surprise release may change the short-term trend of the market, if the surprise is huge enough...
Pre-news Consideration
There are no pre-news consideration for this release.
DEFINITION:
“(Retail Sales Core) Derivative of Retail Sales that excludes the Automobile Sales component. Automobile Sales make up roughly 25% of Retail Sales, but they can be very volatile from month to month and can distort the picture. Retail Sales with the exclusion of this volatile component is thought to be a better indicator of the underlying trend in consumer spending.”
Historical Data and Chart For US Core Retail Sales
Thanks,
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