Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 473
Australia GDP is a quarterly release similar to the U.S. Advanced GDP or the UK Pre-lim release, but usually there is only one release per quarter. Since this is a quarterly release, it is a high impact release that may change the short term trend of AUD. Here is the forecast:
7:30pm (NY Time) AU GDP q/q Forecast 0.6% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 0.9% SELL 0.3%
The Trade Plan
We’ll be looking for a devation of 0.3% or more, therefore if we get 0.9% or better, we’ll be BUYING AUD/USD; however, if we get a 0.3% or worse, we’ll probably see AUD/USD start to move downward.
We'll be trading this release using the after-news retracement method. For more information, please read:
Henry's news trading method.
The Market
We’ll focus on GDP release which is expected at 0.6%. Ever since the sharp decline in last quarter's GDP release, traders have been speculating that the growth in Australia economy will be moderate, combining that with recent flooding and cyclones, this GDP release may not surprise to the upside.
However, considering that Tuesday's Retail Sales came out at 0.4%, or 0.1% better than expectation, Australian economy is still showing remarkable resilience.
Additional Thoughts
AUDUSD is a slow moving currency and in the event that we get a strong release, we could see renewed support for AUDUSD pair and possibly see market push the 1.0250 level... However, on a weak release, AUD could drop to parity (1.0000).
Pre-news Considerations
I'd be looking to staying out of the market.
DEFINITION:
“GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” In short, if you were to reduce the entire economy into a simple number, it would be the GDP.”
Historical Data & Chart From AU GDP q/q
Thanks,
7:30pm (NY Time) AU GDP q/q Forecast 0.6% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 0.9% SELL 0.3%
The Trade Plan
We’ll be looking for a devation of 0.3% or more, therefore if we get 0.9% or better, we’ll be BUYING AUD/USD; however, if we get a 0.3% or worse, we’ll probably see AUD/USD start to move downward.
We'll be trading this release using the after-news retracement method. For more information, please read:
Henry's news trading method.
The Market
We’ll focus on GDP release which is expected at 0.6%. Ever since the sharp decline in last quarter's GDP release, traders have been speculating that the growth in Australia economy will be moderate, combining that with recent flooding and cyclones, this GDP release may not surprise to the upside.
However, considering that Tuesday's Retail Sales came out at 0.4%, or 0.1% better than expectation, Australian economy is still showing remarkable resilience.
Additional Thoughts
AUDUSD is a slow moving currency and in the event that we get a strong release, we could see renewed support for AUDUSD pair and possibly see market push the 1.0250 level... However, on a weak release, AUD could drop to parity (1.0000).
Pre-news Considerations
I'd be looking to staying out of the market.
DEFINITION:
“GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” In short, if you were to reduce the entire economy into a simple number, it would be the GDP.”
Historical Data & Chart From AU GDP q/q
Thanks,
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