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Forex Signal (Wed March 30 2011, 8:15am NY Time EST) - US ADP NFP Changes

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Mar 29, 2011.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    ADP or Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) is releasing it’s own estimate for the private sectors of NFP (Nonfarm Payroll). This is high impact release and it’s followed by currency traders as they look for hints on Friday’s NFP official release. Here’s the forecast:

    8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast 200K Previous 217K
    ACTION: 250K BUY USDJPY / 150K BUY EURUSD

    The Trade Plan

    I usually don’t trade this release but I use its figure for future trend references, however if the deviation of 50K is actually hit, market will probably have not problem pushing it, and this will undoubtedly change market perception for Friday’s NFP release; therefore it is best to be around your computer during the release time rather than finding out what happened hours later and perhaps missed the entire movement.

    With the above being said, we'll be looking for a deviation of 50K, so if we get 250K or better release, I’d be looking to BUY USD/JPY; if we get a 150K or worse, then I’d be looking to BUY EURUSD... I will also recommend to look at my strength meter and find the best currency against the USD pending the actual data.

    In the event that we do get our deviation, we'll be trading this news based on after-news Retracement Trading Method. For more information, read:
    Henry's Retracement Trading Method.

    The Market
    With NFP jobs forecasted at +190K and its Private Employment reading at 222K, as forecast by Bloomberg Survey of 62 economists, it is very likely that we'll get the 200K ADP figure as it's right in line with general market expectation...

    As we know that most traders look at both ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI's, and the ADP release for hints on NFP release, but with the Employment release scheduled on the first of April, we only have ADP to count on; therefore, if we get a strong number, market could move ahead of Friday's release...

    Additional Thoughts
    The ADP NFP Employment Release is aways considered as a high impact release because ADP is the largest private payroll processing provider in the U.S., traders in general pay more attention to this release, especially during NFP week. ADP usually releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers before the actual NFP based on it’s proprietary private payroll data.

    Pre-news Consideration
    There should not be much pre-news trading opportunities for this release. But this release could start a pre-news trend for Friday's NFP.


    Historical Chart & Data For US ADP NFP

    Thanks,


    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Mar 29, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. LaurensDeGraff

    LaurensDeGraff Private

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    Adp/nfp

    Genius...Pure Genius! Thanks Henry!
     
  3. Carl Gunsser

    Carl Gunsser Recruit

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    Thank you Henry

    Henry, thank you for your assessments, I am a relative inexperienced trader and I have found your comments both educational and practical.
     
  4. JanPoko

    JanPoko Private

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    really professional!

    Watching this quite a long time since Sir Pipsalot times and yet missed something. What is your strength meter, please? Where could I find it?
     
  5. osasyankee

    osasyankee Private, 1st Class

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    you can find it here

    currencystrengthmeter.com

    it forms one of my basis of entry and exit or allowing profit to build. Download and enjoy.
     
  6. JanPoko

    JanPoko Private

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    thanks for immediate reply and help, private.
     

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