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Forex Signal (Wednesday April 11, 2012 – 9:30pm EDT) – AU Employment Change

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Stavro D'Amore, Apr 10, 2012.

  1. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

    Joined:
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    Hello All,

    Today we have AU Employment Change numbers due to arrive, please see my trade plan below.

    AU Employment Change
    Forecast 6.0K
    Previous -15.4K
    Pair to trade: AUD/USD

    Numbers we need:
    BUY AUD/USD 31K
    SELL AUD/USD -19K

    Economical Impact: High
    Typical Result: Good for Currency
    Occurrence: monthly 10 days after month ends
    Spike Probability: Good, we can see 40 pips on initial spike

    About our Triggers:
    AU Employment Change forecasted to arrive at 6.0K
    We are looking for a deviation of 25K to the upside to BUY AUD/USD and a deviation of 25K to the downside to SHORT AUD/USD
    So the summary is we get 31K or better I will look to enter a LONG position on AUD/ USD and if we get -19K or lower I will go SHORT on AUD/USD.
    Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see about 40 pips on the initial spike.
    This trade will have a good chance of a 30% retrace on the initial spike so I recommend trading the retracement method as stated bellow.

    NOTE: We have a conflict of AU Unemployment numbers that is due to arrive the same time, This is forecasted at 5.3% and current unemployment is 5.2%. I will not be surprised if we see 5.4%

    What is it? And why does the market care?
    The Unemployment Rate is a measure of the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment and willing to work in Australia.
    A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage is a positive indicator for the labor market in Australia and should be taken as positive for the AUD..

    Method I use to trade this:
    Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

    See my Views on the EURO

    Pre news
    We might see a little sell off in the AUD before the release. Be looking for a short around 25 mins prior to the release, please be out of the short 5min before release, look for MA (moving averages) to determine a short position

    Spike
    I do recommend spike trading as an option. Liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker. Please use no more than a 15 pip limit order to control slippage.

    After Spike
    I will look for a 30% retracement in the original spike before entering. I will be looking at a 15 minute chart.

    My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame to analyze this.

    Historical Chart and Data for AU Employment Change

    All the best

    Stavro D’Amore
     

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