Global Prime: Daily Market Digest

IvanGlobalPrime

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Forex Market In Need To Break Ranges

The Daily Edge is authored by Ivan Delgado, 10y Forex Trader veteran & Market Insights Commentator at Global Prime. Feel free to follow Ivan on Twitter & Youtube weekly show. You can also subscribe to the mailing list to receive Ivan’s Daily wrap. The purpose of this content is to provide an assessment of the conditions, taking an in-depth look of market dynamics – fundamentals and technicals – determine daily biases and assist one’s trading decisions.

Let’s get started…
Scan Of The Markets


The indices show the performance of a particular currency vs G8 FX. A video on how to interpret these indices can be found in the Global Prime’s Research section.

It’s been a complete snooze-fest in financial markets with tight contractions in currencies the predominant dynamics in observance of the Memorial day and other domestic festivities around the globe. In the grand scheme of things, equities keep pressing higher as depicted by the new trend highs recorded by the S&P 500 futures, which keeps suppressing the outlook for currency as risk-sensitive as the Yen.

In today’s video analysis, I note that the FX market is set to ramp up its depressed levels of vol as normalcy in order flow returns. The first sign that opportunities will be coming back is the resolution of the current tight consolidations. GBP/USD and AUD/USD, shorts and longs respectively, show potential to resume the dominant trends, while the picture gets murkier when analyzing the EUR/USD or USD/JPY.

In the fundamental front, one must keep an eye on the unfolding situation out of Hong Kong when trading the AUD and other associated risk assets (NZD, CAD, equities). People have taken the streets again with defiance against social distancing. This is in response to the plans by China to introduce a new national security law in Hong Kong within 6 months or ever sooner than that, set to strip away most of the autonomy and liberties that the region enjoys.

According to Global Times, “the proposed legislation entitles the central government’s national security organs to establish agencies in the SAR to safeguard national security, while the chief executive of the Hong Kong SAR government will report to the central government at regular intervals. The reports will include performance of duties in maintaining national security, conducting national security promotion education, and prohibiting acts that endanger national security.”

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo defines the violation of rights by China a “death knell” for the city’s freedoms. “The United States strongly urges Beijing to reconsider its disastrous proposal, abide by its international obligations, and respect Hong Kong’s high degree of autonomy, democratic institutions, and civil liberties,” Pompeo said in a statement on Friday. The plot thickens in this new cold war.

Another fundamental driver with merit on its own right to stimulate flows in the Euro comes via the ECB’s hint that it stands ready to add further easing measures in June. In the minutes of the April 30 (virtual) ECB meeting published on Friday, members noted that “the Council would have to stand ready to adjust the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program and potentially other instruments if it saw that the scale of the stimulus was falling short of what was needed.”

In the UK, an idiosyncratic element with the potential to exert further pressure on the Pound is the multiple number of admissions by BoE members that negative rates are on the table. The last strong hint came via BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden who told Reuters it was “perfectly reasonable to have an open mind” about negative rates. If we shift the focus to Sterling’s technicals, there is full congruence between the negative fundamental headlines and where we stand in terms of technicals.

Remember, a tail risk that remains hovering on the background but could hit risk sentiment any time has to do with second COVID waves as the re-openings of global economies continue. In Europe, things have quieted down with Italy and Spain reporting fewer than 100 cases, while in the US is not as encouraging with over 100k deaths. Reuters also reported on Monday that 11 US states recorded a jump in the number of new COVID-19 cases, including Alabama, Arkansas, Minnesota, North Dakota, New Hampshire, Maryland, Maine, Nevada, Utah, Virginia and Wisconsin.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!

Insights Into Market Flows
This analysis is conducted on a multi timeframe dimension. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter a position, hence the video is mainly intended as a way to educate traders in upping their analytical skills.

If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead

Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to the tutorial How To Read Market Structures In Forex.

SMART MONEY TRACKER
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
Unlike levels of dynamic support or resistance or more subjective measurements such as fibonacci retracements, pivot points, trendlines, or other forms of reactive areas, horizontal areas of support and resistance are universal concepts used by the majority of market participants. It, therefore, makes the areas the most widely followed. The Ultimate Guide To Identify Areas Of High Interest.

FUNDAMENTALS
It’s important to highlight that the daily market outlook provided in this report is subject to the impact of the fundamental news. Any unexpected news may cause the price to behave erratically in the short term. Monitor the event risks via Forexfactory.com & refer to Fundamentals vs Technicals In Forex.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

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Messages
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Find my latest market thoughts

USD Market Structures Compromised

The Daily Edge is authored by Ivan Delgado, 10y Forex Trader veteran & Market Insights Commentator at Global Prime. Feel free to follow Ivan on Twitter & Youtube weekly show. You can also subscribe to the mailing list to receive Ivan’s Daily wrap. The purpose of this content is to provide an assessment of the conditions, taking an in-depth look of market dynamics – fundamentals and technicals – determine daily biases and assist one’s trading decisions.

Let’s get started…
Scan Of The Markets

The indices show the performance of a particular currency vs G8 FX. A video on how to interpret these indices can be found in the Global Prime’s Research section.

It’s been all about wearing the ‘risk on’ hat and go with the flow as the market appears unfazed by geopolitical rhetoric picking up between the US and China to instead focus on the re-opening of economies.

Besides, as many as 10 companies around the world are now going through human trials to come up with a successful vaccine. However, the default view by reading research papers is that 12-18 month is still the most ambitious timeframe even if the more trials the higher the chances of ultimately coming up with the successful one/s.

By scanning through the news posted on Forexfactory, it immediately grabbed my attention the aggressive remarks by China’s Xi. And let me tell you, if the market can’t go down in headlines the likes of what Reuters put out quoting President Xi as saying “they will step up preparedness for military combat”, the bar for a renewed episode of deleveraging conditions in equities has been set pretty high.

Also, let me stress again the beauty of following a technically-oriented approach endorsed in my reports/videos. The benefit lies on the fact that you don’t call directions based on fundamental headlines, but rather, than acts as supplementary inputs to a view already formed via the analysis of structures, momentum, intermarket. This way we stack the odds in our favor to stay on the right side of the ebbs and flows.

So, where do we stand? We are in the midst of an environment dominated by the appreciation of growth/commodity-linked currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) while the ones associated most intimately with risk-off flows (JPY, USD) are taken to the woodshed. Sandwiched in between we find the EUR and GBP, the latter being lifted quite aggressively too as BoE had a rethink on negative rates.

Firstly, a special mention deserves the USD, falling against G8 FX, with the only exception being its appreciation against Gold. This behavior in the metal while the S&P 500 tests 3,000.00 is the ultimate teller that the ‘risk on’ dynamics are well and truly alive.

The slump in the USD has led to significant technical developments via daily breakouts of structures in pairs such as the AUD/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD to name a few. There is a clear case to be made to expect further follow through supply in the USD.

This negative view in the USD not only has compromised the structural formation in the markets mentioned above, but it’s also stacking the odds for an eventual breakout of 1.10 in EUR/USD judging by the incessant sell-off in the aggregated USD flows.

In the case of the GBP, the currency saw a one-way street action from the get go in Europe after some backtracking over the prospect of negative rates in the UK via BoE Chief Economist Haldane, who said “reviewing and doing are different things and currently we are in the review phase, and have not .. reached remotely yet .. the doing”.

The Aussie and Loonie look primed to make further gains against both the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen after the very damaging candle printed by the end of NY for the interest of risk-off plays. In these pairs, by calculating a 100% proj target, we can clearly observe that there is further upside room before these market may find a ceiling.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!

Insights Into Market Flows

This analysis is conducted on a multi timeframe dimension. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter a position, hence the video is mainly intended as a way to educate traders in upping their analytical skills.

If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead

Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to the tutorial How To Read Market Structures In Forex.

SMART MONEY TRACKER
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
Unlike levels of dynamic support or resistance or more subjective measurements such as fibonacci retracements, pivot points, trendlines, or other forms of reactive areas, horizontal areas of support and resistance are universal concepts used by the majority of market participants. It, therefore, makes the areas the most widely followed. The Ultimate Guide To Identify Areas Of High Interest.

FUNDAMENTALS
It’s important to highlight that the daily market outlook provided in this report is subject to the impact of the fundamental news. Any unexpected news may cause the price to behave erratically in the short term. Monitor the event risks via Forexfactory.com & refer to Fundamentals vs Technicals In Forex.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

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Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts

Vol Picks Up In FX, USD Still In Trouble

The Daily Edge is authored by Ivan Delgado, 10y Forex Trader veteran & Market Insights Commentator at Global Prime. Feel free to follow Ivan on Twitter & Youtube weekly show. You can also subscribe to the mailing list to receive Ivan’s Daily wrap. The purpose of this content is to provide an assessment of the conditions, taking an in-depth look of market dynamics – fundamentals and technicals – determine daily biases and assist one’s trading decisions.

Let’s get started…
Scan Of The Markets
The indices show the performance of a particular currency vs G8 FX. A video on how to interpret these indices can be found in the Global Prime’s Research section.

The last 24h of trading were characterized by springy movements as the waxing and waning in order flow made it a challenge to stick with one particular intraday direction.

Remember, we are right in the middle of that tricky window where month-end re-balancing flows are going to have an impact as portfolio managers adjust heading ratios back to neutral. This results, at times, in fairly punchy moves that don’t necessarily have neither a technical nor fundamental logic but rather is all about tweaks in currency risk.

However, there is indeed, aside from the overarching theme of COVID-19, an emerging narrative gripping financial markets’ attention. I am referring to the geopolitical instability between the US and China as the latter edges closer to strip out HK from its autonomy.

US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo has condemned the actions by China to regain legal power and strip HK from its freedom. Pompeo said can no longer certify Hong Kong’s autonomy from China. “No reasonable person can assert today that Hong Kong maintains a high degree of autonomy from China given facts on the ground.”

After all said and done, there are quite a few takeaways:
  • Equities keep charging higher, both in Europe and the US, sweeping under the carpet the deterioration in the US-China relationship to instead find comfort in the European Commission (EC) fiscal stimulus proposal worth up to €750bn, comprised of €500bn in grants to EU member states and €250bn of loans.
  • The daily bullish continuation engulfing candle in the S&P 500 is yet another crushing blow for the interest of sellers. It reinforces the notion that the pain trade remains to short equities as systematic strategies follow the path resonant with what’s working.
  • You have one camp who would argue that these two assets (AUDUSD & SP500), which have been intertwined almost 1:1 for months, are no longer as connected due to the frictions in HK and the expected restrictions to coal imports by China from Australian taking a bite out of the Aussie appeal even as ‘risk’ flourishes.
  • I am on the camp that the near-term decoupling of the Aussie correlation with equities keeps offering opportunities to buy AUD at discounted prices. Whenever the Aussie trades low into decision points with positive divergence in equities, regardless of what the media portrays, systematic strategies return to the bid.
  • The rising tensions in Hong Kong and the ongoing tit-for-tat retaliatory war of words between the US and China has led the Yuan to come under renewed downward pressure despite the attempts by the PBOC to weaken CNY-CNH at the fixing.
  • While you may hear that the Yuan is the asset most important to monitor when trading AUD, I disagree as the correlation coefficient is below 0. You will be better off if, as usual, you keep an eye on the aggregated Aussie/US Dollar.
  • The EUR/USD market has, at last, broken through its 2-month range by printing a close above the 1.10 round number. This means the pair may now set its sight towards more ambitious levels circa the 1.11 round number (100% proj target). The bearish structure in the USD prop index is in agreement for the rally extension.
  • GBP’s recent setback, attributed to the political scandal by Dominic Cummings and calls to fire UK PM’s chief strategist, alongside renewed negatively-charged Brexit headlines, provides a technical value trade amid a major disparity with the USD index.
  • The Canadian Dollar has taken the spot as the darling in FX this week, shrugging off the dip on Oil, as trend/momentum traders look to capitalize on the technical breakout in USD/CAD. As pointed yesterday, this has opened the doors to 1.35-36 now.
  • Risk sensitive pairs the likes of AUD/JPY or CAD/JPY remain bullish across the relevant time scales to monitor (4h/daily), reinforcing the notion of an environment where risk remains at healthy levels, which caps the appeal towards USD & JPY, despite the bid caught by the former mid-day in the US yesterday.
If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!

Insights Into Market Flows
This analysis is conducted on a multi timeframe dimension. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter a position, hence the video is mainly intended as a way to educate traders in upping their analytical skills.

If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead

Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to the tutorial How To Read Market Structures In Forex.

SMART MONEY TRACKER
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
Unlike levels of dynamic support or resistance or more subjective measurements such as fibonacci retracements, pivot points, trendlines, or other forms of reactive areas, horizontal areas of support and resistance are universal concepts used by the majority of market participants. It, therefore, makes the areas the most widely followed. The Ultimate Guide To Identify Areas Of High Interest.

FUNDAMENTALS
It’s important to highlight that the daily market outlook provided in this report is subject to the impact of the fundamental news. Any unexpected news may cause the price to behave erratically in the short term. Monitor the event risks via Forexfactory.com & refer to Fundamentals vs Technicals In Forex.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

Private
Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts

Currencies Manifest ‘Risk On’ Dynamics

The Daily Edge is authored by Ivan Delgado, 10y Forex Trader veteran & Market Insights Commentator at Global Prime. Feel free to follow Ivan on Twitter & Youtube weekly show. You can also subscribe to the mailing list to receive Ivan’s Daily wrap. The purpose of this content is to provide an assessment of the conditions, taking an in-depth look of market dynamics – fundamentals and technicals – determine daily biases and assist one’s trading decisions.

Let’s get started…
Scan Of The Markets

The indices show the performance of a particular currency vs G8 FX. A video on how to interpret these indices can be found in the Global Prime’s Research section.

The overall dominance of ‘risk on’ dynamics in financial markets continues to be better expressed through the trading of currencies, where the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen remain on the back-foot, as opposed to the more lethargic yet predominately bullish picture in equities, where the S&P 500 saw a late selloff to end up neutral.

Heading into the late stages of Thursday, risk had been on a steady climb amid a sharp fall in US continuing jobless claims (V-shaped recovery anyone?) and renewed positive sentiment that the EU €750bn recovery fund proposal will eventually see the light. However, the gains were offset by a late-day setback in US equities after Trump announced that he will be giving a press conference about China on Friday.

The firm risk tone that had prevailed until then was dialed back in a move that rather than having connotations of panic is more about re-positioning as manifested by the calm fluctuations in the VIX (fear index). The jury is still out on what measures Trump may use to sanction China in response the country’s aggression against HK’s democratic right by inserting a controversial national security law.

If China, as many fear, use the law to make heavy-handed arrests, then for the U.S. “the long-term endgame could be the biggest disruption of the relationship since Tiananmen,” Derek Scissors, chief economist at China Beige Book and an AEI scholar, told MNI.

With the most pressing fundamental issues driving markets of the way, let’s now investigate the main takeaways in the charts.
  • The S&P 500 continues to be well-anchored by the structure and momentum across both the 4-hour and daily time scales. The path of least resistance remains northbound and until technicals hint so, any correction lower is set to be transient in nature with active ‘buying on dips’ systematic strategies retaining the upper-hand.
  • The bullish stance in US equities where the S&P 500 trades above 3,000.000, the recent breakout higher in a pair as risk-sensitive as the AUD/JPY or the resolutions into fresh bearish structures formed in USD-denominated pairs, all supports the notion that the prevailing dynamics are set to be a default view of buying risk.
  • The follow-through demand anticipated in the EUR/USD after the first close above 1.10 in over 2 months played out like a charm as dip buyers emerged to take the market into new trend highs. This market is now on an active buy-side campaign with 1.1150 the next 100% proj target to be aiming for as the USD crumbles.
  • Granted, GBP/USD is lagging way behind the EUR/USD, yet it also shows a predominant bullish bias with the daily and the 4-hour timeframes in agreement to expect further gains near term. There we no new Brexit/negative rates related headlines to take note of.
  • By going through the AUD/USD and USD/CAD, even if the extend of the rallies against the USD were limited as caution settles in ahead of Trump’s measures against China, these are two markets where the trend remains very well established to see USDs. AUD/USD target a daily objective of 0.6720-50 (confluence of 100% proj moves) while 1.35-36 is the next goal for UC bears.
If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!

Insights Into Market Flows

This analysis is conducted on a multi timeframe dimension. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter a position, hence the video is mainly intended as a way to educate traders in upping their analytical skills.

If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead

Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes

Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to the tutorial How To Read Market Structures In Forex.

SMART MONEY TRACKER
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
Unlike levels of dynamic support or resistance or more subjective measurements such as fibonacci retracements, pivot points, trendlines, or other forms of reactive areas, horizontal areas of support and resistance are universal concepts used by the majority of market participants. It, therefore, makes the areas the most widely followed. The Ultimate Guide To Identify Areas Of High Interest.

FUNDAMENTALS
It’s important to highlight that the daily market outlook provided in this report is subject to the impact of the fundamental news. Any unexpected news may cause the price to behave erratically in the short term. Monitor the event risks via Forexfactory.com & refer to Fundamentals vs Technicals In Forex.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

Private
Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts

Rosy Risk Dynamics To Kick Off June

The Daily Edge is authored by Ivan Delgado, 10y Forex Trader veteran & Market Insights Commentator at Global Prime. Feel free to follow Ivan on Twitter & Youtube weekly show. You can also subscribe to the mailing list to receive Ivan’s Daily wrap. The purpose of this content is to provide an assessment of the conditions, taking an in-depth look of market dynamics – fundamentals and technicals – determine daily biases and assist one’s trading decisions.

Let’s get started…

Scan Of The Markets

The indices show the performance of a particular currency vs G8 FX. A video on how to interpret these indices can be found in the Global Prime’s Research section.

Despite equities kicked off the first few hours in June with a soft note in what I suspect could be a more cautious approach on the back of the riots spreading across dozens of cities in the US, in the grand scheme of things, that’s just a blip in a green ocean.

To what extend the market may be connecting the dots by fearing that such unrest in the US may be sprouting up new COVID-19 chain events as social distancing is not respected is anyone’s guess.

In all honesty, why venture into such complicated assumptions of little actionable insights if ultimately, it will nonetheless be reflected via technicals and intermarkets, which the compass to orient ourselves.

Judging by the behavior in equities and risk-sensitive FX such as the USD or JPY during the month of May, it’s hard to argue that the market is much more focused on a glass half-full approach.

If anyone needed more proof of this forward-looking positive psyche by Mr. Market, the dismissal of truly appalling US data last Friday, with Q2 GDP Now at -51.2% annualised from -40.4% should do the trick.

This has led to pricing into risk assets the hopes of a steady pick up in economic activity as more countries try to go back to some type of normalcy with dozens of prototype vaccines in human trial phase.

Another driver for financial markets last Friday, which ended up as a dull event since it never lived up to the build up of fears it caused came via the retaliatory measures by Trump on China in response to the recent developments in the Hong Kong security law.

The measures against China were either already known in advance due to leaks or fell on the soft side. As a result, risk rebounded before the end of the month.

So, with the most pressing fundamental news driving market sentiment out of the way, let’s now concentrate on the technical outlook:

  • The S&P 500, as my favorite bellwether instrument to assess market sentiment, still has active upward targets to be met based on the recent bullish targets where structural changes occurred. The 3,160.00 now comes into play following May 25th close candle. Granted, the 4h chart has transitioned into a range now.
  • The EUR/USD met its 100% measured move target in what proved to be a very fast move from the moment the 1.10 round number was broken on May 27th. The extension into higher levels, as momentum and structure stands is certainty in the cards, but if you are looking for technical value, we are at expensive levels.
  • The GBP/USD suggests more upside room until the first conservative 100% projection target at 1.2430 is met, followed by an aggressive one circa 1.2515, activated upon a break and hold through 1.2360. The daily ticks all the boxes (momentum, structure, levels) to keep supporting the buy-side bias, while the 4h chart has seen what I expect to be a transient range established.
  • The AUD/USD remains exceptionally well positioned to keep ripping the benefits of the overall ‘risk on’ dynamics. Last Friday’s price action candle, alongside the momentum and structure of the daily chart, all unquestionably support to buy this market. In the 4h chart, we’ve entered a spell of contraction with clear dangers for an ultimate breakout into higher territory as the lay of the land stands.
  • Be reminded that as of late, the USD prop index imploded by breaking into a fresh bearish structure, and as a by-product of the negative aggregated flows, the commodity-linked currencies, together with the EUR and GBP, have capitalized on it. These breakouts in AUDUSD, USDCAD, EURUSD, etc are a crushing blow for the near term expectations of USD bulls.
If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!


Insights Into Market Flows
This analysis is conducted on a multi timeframe dimension. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter a position, hence the video is mainly intended as a way to educate traders in upping their analytical skills.

If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead


Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to the tutorial How To Read Market Structures In Forex.

SMART MONEY TRACKER
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
Unlike levels of dynamic support or resistance or more subjective measurements such as fibonacci retracements, pivot points, trendlines, or other forms of reactive areas, horizontal areas of support and resistance are universal concepts used by the majority of market participants. It, therefore, makes the areas the most widely followed. The Ultimate Guide To Identify Areas Of High Interest.

FUNDAMENTALS
It’s important to highlight that the daily market outlook provided in this report is subject to the impact of the fundamental news. Any unexpected news may cause the price to behave erratically in the short term. Monitor the event risks via Forexfactory.com & refer to Fundamentals vs Technicals In Forex.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

Private
Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts

The Aussie Exploits ‘Risk On’ Like No Other

The Daily Edge is authored by Ivan Delgado, 10y Forex Trader veteran & Market Insights Commentator at Global Prime. Feel free to follow Ivan on Twitter & Youtube weekly show. You can also subscribe to the mailing list to receive Ivan’s Daily wrap. The purpose of this content is to provide an assessment of the conditions, taking an in-depth look of market dynamics – fundamentals and technicals – determine daily biases and assist one’s trading decisions.

Let’s get started…


Scan Of The Markets


The indices show the performance of a particular currency vs G8 FX. A video on how to interpret these indices can be found in the Global Prime’s Research section.

The commodity-linked currencies are on fire, with one in particular (AUD) taking the spotlight as it hits 0.68 USD, the highest levels since early February before the whole COVID-19 crisis got out of hand.

The one-way street in the AUD follows the soft response by Trump to China’s approval of a new Hong Kong security law, trapping wrong-sided shorts in the process? However, the lenient retaliation may not detract China from ending the US-China phase-1 trade deal.

As Foreign Policy site notes: “The Chinese government appears to be reneging on the sputtering deal, reportedly telling state-owned agricultural firms to halt purchases of U.S. soybeans, one of the major U.S. agricultural exports to China and a pillar of the deal…”

Besides, the gains in the Aussie come despite the sluggish performance in equities, where the S&P 500 eked out a mere 0.4%. Note, the pretext to keep favoring buying strategies remains there nonetheless, as portrayed by the back-to-back bullish pin candles off the daily, alongside the structure and momentum of this market.

One could argue that even amid the absence of decisive buy-side commitment in equities, the AUD found further positive drivers through the spikes in iron ore and gold.

One of the limiting factors for bulls to keep the clear momentum in US equities could be explained by the unfolding social unrest nationwide as Trump promises “decisive action” against violence following the homicide by a police officer against an Afro-american.

Another negative input preventing the lift off in US stocks came as news broke out that the third-phase trials of Gilead’s Remdesivir anti-viral drug were far from the Goldilocks scenario one would wish, taking a small bite out of risk trades intraday.

Back to FX, if the AUD is the star, at the bottom of the board we find two familiar suspects (JPY, USD). The currencies most linked to risk-off flows are having a real struggle amid the flourishing of risk as the focus remains on economic re-openings.

As per the EUR/USD, I am starting to see a very obvious negative divergence against the EUR index. What this means is that further gains expansion will prove a real challenge and topside failures are starting to become a scenario to highly consider as the pair’s upward path is unsustainable if the EUR index keeps selling off. Fundamentally, the EU recovery fund approval and the ECB meeting on Thursday are the risks ahead.

Shifting to the Pound, the currency landed right on its 100% measured move vs the USD in record time, with buyers still pushing further up past the 1.25 round number. This is a market with plenty of momentum but the elongated daily candle warrants caution.

I won’t spend much time dissecting the action in the USD/JPY as this is a pair that continues its boring slog as the risk-off flows depress in relatively equal intensity both the Yen and the USD, hence the contraction period we are seeing as flows move in tandem.

The USD/CAD is another currency pair that is moving very nicely with bears in absolute control here. Note, the Bank of Canada meeting is tomorrow so you may want to re-calibrate your exposure if holding longs on the Canadian currency ahead of the event. Remember, Tiff Macklem is taking over the post from Gov Poloz. I’ve been endorsing an aggressive target of 1.35 in recent daily analysis.

In the next 24h, the key event to pencil in includes the RBA meeting. No change is expected in either the 0.25% cash rate nor the 0.25% 3-year yield control target. In its recent testimony before the Senate, RBA Governor Lowe said the economy is faring better than the baseline projections, but on the flip side, said this does not mean the scenario won’t continue to be “depressing”, with unemployment high for years.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!

Insights Into Market Flows
This analysis is conducted on a multi timeframe dimension. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter a position, hence the video is mainly intended as a way to educate traders in upping their analytical skills.

If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead


Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to the tutorial How To Read Market Structures In Forex.

SMART MONEY TRACKER
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
Unlike levels of dynamic support or resistance or more subjective measurements such as fibonacci retracements, pivot points, trendlines, or other forms of reactive areas, horizontal areas of support and resistance are universal concepts used by the majority of market participants. It, therefore, makes the areas the most widely followed. The Ultimate Guide To Identify Areas Of High Interest.

FUNDAMENTALS
It’s important to highlight that the daily market outlook provided in this report is subject to the impact of the fundamental news. Any unexpected news may cause the price to behave erratically in the short term. Monitor the event risks via Forexfactory.com & refer to Fundamentals vs Technicals In Forex.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

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Find my latest market thoughts

Aussie Defies Gravity, Ballistic ‘Risk On’

The Daily Edge is authored by Ivan Delgado, 10y Forex Trader veteran & Market Insights Commentator at Global Prime. Feel free to follow Ivan on Twitter & Youtube weekly show. You can also subscribe to the mailing list to receive Ivan’s Daily wrap. The purpose of this content is to provide an assessment of the conditions, taking an in-depth look of market dynamics – fundamentals and technicals – determine daily biases and assist one’s trading decisions.


Let’s get started…


Scan Of The Markets


The indices show the performance of a particular currency vs G8 FX. A video on how to interpret these indices can be found in the Global Prime’s Research section.

If not enough evidence had been emerging as of late over the unequivocally strong ‘risk on’ environment promoting the appreciation of commodity-linked currencies, the market once again schooled any stubborn contrarians through another impressive run in risk trades, with equities in the US also breaking higher.

As heart-breaking as the images of US civil unrest have become in main news outlets, the reality in the ground is disconnected from what the market is being driven by. In the equity space, it’s all about the gradual re-opening of global economies, the prospects to develop a vaccine against COVID-19, and the groovy vibes left by the admission of Germany that fiscal stimulus might be on the way.

If history is any indication, markets tend to sweep under the carpet these type of protests for the most part. The market is a very efficient and well-oiled machine that will be in present time discounting future events and the overarching theme today is a COVID-19 recovery. US social unrest tends to be quelled and lack a longer lasting impact.

Affecting the mood in a positive manner, we also learned as stated above, via Bloomberg, that German Chancellor Merkel is hard at work trying to broker what would represent the country’s second stimulus package for the economy. The deal is said to be in the region between 50 billion-euros to 100 billion-euros. Bloomberg’s Raymond Colitt reported the news on “Bloomberg Markets: European Open.”

Besides, the soft approach by Trump towards China after the security law on Hong Kong, was another critical big risk removed allowing markets to continue the path of least resistance. It is clear that Trump is now fixated in massaging the rhetoric best suited to stack the best odds to be re-elected in Nov, and that won’t happen by pressuring the equity market or the economy via more punitive import tariffs or sanctions against China.

The demise of the USD and JPY, especially the latter, is a clear barometer of how hot risk appetite is running. Remember, if one wants to take the temperate of RORO (risk-on, risk-off) conditions, these two currencies, alongside the S&P 500, are your Go-To instruments. If one throws into the mix the sell-off seen in Gold or the Swiss Franc, it becomes blatantly evident that risk appetite is proliferating in a big way.

Another interesting development this week, which already began mid last week, is the transition we are seeing from mild range expansions in FX to a fully-fledged return of high volatility measures. It is only in this kind of expanding vol environment that we can reconcile with an Aussie netting more than 4% gains vs the USD in the last 24h.

It’s also important to remark that it is in these periods of expansion in market ranges, as opposed to spells of price contraction, that trend traders will find the best conditions to thrive. Volatility expansion creates opportunities, hence why this is a time to be bold, within your own set limits, and look to exploit what the market has to offer.

It’s also worth reminding readers that yesterday’s RBA decision came in line with expectations, leaving the cash rate and 3-year bond yield target unchanged at 0.25%. There were no surprises on asset purchases, liquidity operations or wording. The Board stated that this“ accommodative approach will be maintained as long as it is required”, with the rate at record lows until “progress is being made towards full employment and [the Board] is confident that inflation will be sustainably within the 2-3% target”.

Heading into Wednesday’s session, the Bank of Canada is next in line.
The benchmark interest rate is expected to stay on hold, while further stimulus to the economy via lending through corporate bond purchases is one of the scenarios being considered by economists. But the crux of the matter to move the CAD will reside on the central bank’s forward guidance on monetary policy under new Governor Tiff Macklem.

If you are interested in the technical outlook for the Forex market, I’ve put together, as usual, a 20m long analysis below. Enjoy it!

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!

Insights Into Market Flows
This analysis is conducted on a multi timeframe dimension. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter a position, hence the video is mainly intended as a way to educate traders in upping their analytical skills.

If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead

Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to the tutorial How To Read Market Structures In Forex.

SMART MONEY TRACKER
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
Unlike levels of dynamic support or resistance or more subjective measurements such as fibonacci retracements, pivot points, trendlines, or other forms of reactive areas, horizontal areas of support and resistance are universal concepts used by the majority of market participants. It, therefore, makes the areas the most widely followed. The Ultimate Guide To Identify Areas Of High Interest.

FUNDAMENTALS
It’s important to highlight that the daily market outlook provided in this report is subject to the impact of the fundamental news. Any unexpected news may cause the price to behave erratically in the short term. Monitor the event risks via Forexfactory.com & refer to Fundamentals vs Technicals In Forex.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

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Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts

Same Old With Risk Assets Flying

The Daily Edge is authored by Ivan Delgado, 10y Forex Trader veteran & Market Insights Commentator at Global Prime. Feel free to follow Ivan on Twitter & Youtube weekly show. You can also subscribe to the mailing list to receive Ivan’s Daily wrap. The purpose of this content is to provide an assessment of the conditions, taking an in-depth look of market dynamics – fundamentals and technicals – determine daily biases and assist one’s trading decisions.

Let’s get started…
Scan Of The Markets

The indices show the performance of a particular currency vs G8 FX. A video on how to interpret these indices can be found in the Global Prime’s Research section.

Those capitalizing on the abundance of ‘risk on’ opportunities would probably don’t mind me sounding like a broken record. The reality is that nothing has changed in financial markets, where equities and commodity-linked currencies continue charging higher.

We have an Australian Dollar coming into close contact with USD 0.70, the S&P 500 on its merry way to meet its next 100% proj target at 3,160.00, Gold selling-off, and the like of US Dollar, Yen, Franc following the same path as the shinny metal. This is a receipt for disaster if you are going to wear anything other than a ‘risk on’ hat.

But as much as I have been promoting the proliferation of ‘risk on’ trades for a while now, we are dangerously approaching very overstretched levels with the EUR/USD above 1.12, GBP/USD near 1.26, USD/CAD at 1.25 to name a few. These are big levels hit.

There might be further gas in the tank but unless you are focused on systematic momentum or scalping strategies, we’ve come a long way and discounted a lot of future positives. The key drivers continue to orbit around a relatively prompt economic recover (starting to be backed by some tentative evidence through data) and vaccines available to fight off the COVID-19 pandemic within 12-18 months. Angela Merkel’s coalition inking a $146b stimulus package aided sentiment too.

If recent data is anything to go by, which it is, as it starts to capture life post COVID-19, the releases support the idea that we may have seen the trough or lowest point in the global economic downturn. We had China’s Caixin Services PMI spiking to 55.0, Australia’s Q1 GDP data falling by 0.3% – within expectations – , Germany’s May unemployment rose at a slower pace (238k vs 372k in April). But the big data point came via the US ADP employment report, which saw ‘only’ a loss of 2.8 million jobs in May, much better than expectations.

A major event on Wednesday now behind us included the Bank of Canada policy decision, which kept its rate and QE bond buying programme unchanged. The rhetoric was more positive, noting that the Bank judged that the worst of the COVID-19 impact on the global economy may be behind us and the Canadian economy had just avoided the Bank’s most disastrous downside projection. The Bank also announced an curtailment in the frequency of some of its emergency operations, including purchases of short-term bank paper and its term repo (collateralised lending) operations, which is a good sign. The CAD traded steady but not overly bullish post the event.

Now, going forward, the next big event today orbits around the ECB monetary policy meeting, with expectations running high that they will leave its deposit rate where it is at -0.5% while reinforcing the rhetoric that they stand ready and committed to maintain monetary policy settings incredibly accommodative to assist the economic recovery.

For further insights into the technical aspects in equities, currency majors and other markets of interest, please refer to the video I posted below. This content gets updated on a 24h basis to keep it as actionable and relevant as possible.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!

Insights Into Market Flows
This analysis is conducted on a multi timeframe dimension. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter a position, hence the video is mainly intended as a way to educate traders in upping their analytical skills.

If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead

Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to the tutorial How To Read Market Structures In Forex.

SMART MONEY TRACKER
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
Unlike levels of dynamic support or resistance or more subjective measurements such as fibonacci retracements, pivot points, trendlines, or other forms of reactive areas, horizontal areas of support and resistance are universal concepts used by the majority of market participants. It, therefore, makes the areas the most widely followed. The Ultimate Guide To Identify Areas Of High Interest.

FUNDAMENTALS
It’s important to highlight that the daily market outlook provided in this report is subject to the impact of the fundamental news. Any unexpected news may cause the price to behave erratically in the short term. Monitor the event risks via Forexfactory.com & refer to Fundamentals vs Technicals In Forex.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

Private
Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts

EUR Shoots The Lights Out Post ECB

The Daily Edge is authored by Ivan Delgado, 10y Forex Trader veteran & Market Insights Commentator at Global Prime. Feel free to follow Ivan on Twitter & Youtube weekly show. You can also subscribe to the mailing list to receive Ivan’s Daily wrap. The purpose of this content is to provide an assessment of the conditions, taking an in-depth look of market dynamics – fundamentals and technicals – determine daily biases and assist one’s trading decisions.

Let’s get started…
Scan Of The Markets


The indices show the performance of a particular currency vs G8 FX. A video on how to interpret these indices can be found in the Global Prime’s Research section.

The story of the day and the week/s continues to be the relentless appreciation of the EUR/USD, which if excluding the last 24h, reflects the crumbing of the USD appeal across the board as risk trades fly.

EUR/USD bulls are on a mature merry way journey for 8 straight days after the ECB over-delivered, based on the street’s forecast, with €600b addition to its PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme).

The recent policy stimulus in Europe, both fiscal and monetary, is the narrative the market has latched on to propel the Euro into fresh highs amid a softer risk appetite as expressed through the sluggish performance of equities in the US, where neither the S&P 500, down 0.34, nor the Nasdaq, -0.71%, kept up the buying pace this time.

Even if we also learned that Finland joined the ‘frugal four’ in Europe, which have serious objections towards the EU Recovery Fund, all the market cared about was how the ECB exceeded the PEPP expectations, with bond buying now to extend until at least June ’21.

This leaves us with a EUR/USD breaking and closing above the 1.13 level in what constitutes one of the largest daily percentage gains in months, which comes on the back of what was already looking like a very mature and overstretched market.

This implies that if the risks of getting caught on a weak-handed net EUR long position were already high ahead of the ECB, it’s now even trickier to find any form of justification to buy Euros from a value perspective. However, that’s just half of the equation…

Why? because for the systematic momentum/scalping type, these one-sided flows is where these strategies thrive, hence why I suspects the strong tide will require a fair amount of time to see a meaningful turnaround in fortunes for those accumulating short EUR inventory. The momentum is just so sizzling hot.

Granted, the pain trade to be USD long has been felt across the spectrum of commodity-linked currencies, and testament of that is the momentum established in pairs such as the AUD/USD, a whisker away from hitting the 0.70, a USD/CAD recently reaching 1.35 or the NZD/USD, which exchanges hands over-inflated at 0.66.

Going forward, the next 24h sees the publication of the US payrolls data, expected to show an 8 million decline in employment, which would add to the last 20.5mn recorded in April, with the unemployment rate rising to 19.5% from 14.7% last time. Also keep an eye on the neighboring country as Canada’s employment report is due to be released, with expectations pointing at the unemployment rate jumping to 15.0% from 13% in April.

Last but not least, today I allowed myself the permission to rewind back to 2019 and share a video that I produced and people loved it in order for everyone to get a taste of what the backbone of a momentum-type strategy, which is what’s dominated proceedings in the EUR/USD may look like in your charts. Enjoy it!

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!

Throwback Momentum Plays
If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead

Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to the tutorial How To Read Market Structures In Forex.

SMART MONEY TRACKER
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
Unlike levels of dynamic support or resistance or more subjective measurements such as fibonacci retracements, pivot points, trendlines, or other forms of reactive areas, horizontal areas of support and resistance are universal concepts used by the majority of market participants. It, therefore, makes the areas the most widely followed. The Ultimate Guide To Identify Areas Of High Interest.

FUNDAMENTALS
It’s important to highlight that the daily market outlook provided in this report is subject to the impact of the fundamental news. Any unexpected news may cause the price to behave erratically in the short term. Monitor the event risks via Forexfactory.com & refer to Fundamentals vs Technicals In Forex.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

Private
Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts

Forex Remains A Trend Traders’ Dream

The Daily Edge is authored by Ivan Delgado, 10y Forex Trader veteran & Market Insights Commentator at Global Prime. Feel free to follow Ivan on Twitter & Youtube weekly show. You can also subscribe to the mailing list to receive Ivan’s Daily wrap. The purpose of this content is to provide an assessment of the conditions, taking an in-depth look of market dynamics – fundamentals and technicals – determine daily biases and assist one’s trading decisions.

Let’s get started…
Scan Of The Markets

The indices show the performance of a particular currency vs G8 FX. A video on how to interpret these indices can be found in the Global Prime’s Research section.

The way the week starts with the USD and JPY on the backfoot lays the ground to see follow through continuation of the ‘risk on’ dynamics prevalent for a number of weeks. It’s not rocket science that these conditions are a dream come true for trend traders.

On the back of a shocking upbeat in both the US and Canada’s employment reports last Friday, equities not only maintained the bid tone but gains were turbo-charged as the S&P 500 broke through the 3,200.00 pattern with a huge resistance now overhead.

But it’s not just the hammering of the Yen or US Dollar, it’s the action seen in the broader spectrum, where the Swiss Franc underperformaces against the EUR, Oi stretches its gains after the OPEC+ outcome this weekend or Gold loses the $1,700.00 area.

The ‘true risk on’ proceedings in the marketplace continues to vindicate the buying of commodity-linked currencies against the weakest links (USD, JPY, CHF) even if there is a clear sense that we’ve already traveled so far in what looks like very mature rallies.

It is clear that systematic-type trading programs are unfazed by discretionary value-led elements that may argue stocks or FX are over-valued based on fundamentals. In any daily time scale where one matches a commodity-linked currency (AUD, NZD, CAD) vs a risk-off one (USD, JPY, CHF), the picture is the same. The structural breakouts in the JPY or USD indices show an identical technical bearish verdict.

Also, with all due respects, the market has not given a rat’s arse to the protests in what’s become a global movement under ‘black lives matter’ label following the killing of George Floyd in the US. It didn’t slow down the market from pushing the risk envelope last week and it is not having an effect today either. A trend-trading dream this market is.

Besides, be reminded, the Fed decision is Wednesday and with the pump in stocks after inundating the economy with fiat US Dollars successfully executed, watch out as the focus is quickly shifting to some unwinding of the emergency measures introduced to avoid a further fracture between reality in the ground and valuations.

It’s definitely shaping up to become a monetary policy event far more important than anyone could have envisioned just a few weeks ago. The equity market strength alongside the surprising beat on expectation in last Friday’s NFP hints a potential rethink in the aggressive policies sooner rather than later…

If one wishes to get my daily insights into both the S&P 500 as my Go-To bellwether indicator to assess risk conditions, alongside what the lay of the land looks like in FX, the video below gives you a full technical round up, including the study of structures, momentum, vol, targets, you name it. You’ll get as much value as attention you put in.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!

Insights Into Market Flows

This analysis is conducted on a multi timeframe dimension. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter a position, hence the video is mainly intended as a way to educate traders in upping their analytical skills.

If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead

Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to the tutorial How To Read Market Structures In Forex.

SMART MONEY TRACKER
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
Unlike levels of dynamic support or resistance or more subjective measurements such as fibonacci retracements, pivot points, trendlines, or other forms of reactive areas, horizontal areas of support and resistance are universal concepts used by the majority of market participants. It, therefore, makes the areas the most widely followed. The Ultimate Guide To Identify Areas Of High Interest.

FUNDAMENTALS
It’s important to highlight that the daily market outlook provided in this report is subject to the impact of the fundamental news. Any unexpected news may cause the price to behave erratically in the short term. Monitor the event risks via Forexfactory.com & refer to Fundamentals vs Technicals In Forex.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 
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